Coronavirus DK: High risk only for the chronically ill

Only 24 of the people in Denmark who have died of COVID-19 did not have a chronic illness. That is the main finding of an evaluation by SSI (DK), the agency for preparedness against infectious diseases. It covered 9,519 cases and 524 deaths related to the coronavirus as of last week (since then, the number has risen to 568). It shows that there is very little risk of dying for infected people who are not elderly and do not have chronic illness. That is, the risk is not high even for patients who are 80 years and do not have a chronic illness or for those who are under 60 and have a chronic illness. 

Of the 9,519 who tested positive, 22 percent were hospitalized and 6 percent died. The researchers caution that the estimate of the number of infections is closer to 100,000 than 10,000, so the fatality rate in the population is around 0.6 percent rather than 6 percent.

Average age at death perfectly normal

Three-quarters of those who died were over 75 years old, and 82 percent of them had more than one chronic illness. The average age of death is 82, which is the same as overall life expectancy in Denmark. The danger related to chronic illness is similar to that of ordinary influenza, says Reimer Thomsen, head doctor at Aarhus University Hospital who took part in the review, but the difference with COVID-19 is that it is very infectious. It can thus overwhelm hospitals, and more patients die because there are not enough beds in ICUs, as occurred in Italy.

Results from COVIDmeter

Six weeks ago, SSI launched a voluntary survey of persons who report symptoms (DK) once a week. Some 120,000 have participated by answering three simple questions on a website called COVIDmeter: Have you had symptoms in the past week? Have you been in contact with someone who is infected? Have you been tested? SSI has released the first set of results, and they show that the number of people with symptoms has fallen sharply over the period, from around 1.3 percent to around 0.25 percent. Since the survey is voluntary and not everyone has been aware of it, the results are approximate and subject to a margin of error. 

The purpose of the survey was to serve as a supplement to the testing program and get an estimate of the number of infections among people who have not been tested. The people who reported symptoms were spread fairly evenly across age groups, and the trend in symptoms has generally followed the falling trend in hospitalizations of those tested.

Symptoms declined during Easter parties

The number with symptoms fell most sharply, to about 0.6 percent, during the first week of the survey, which ended on Easter Sunday. That is an interesting development, because officials had warned that people might have a tendency to relax their observance of social distancing guidelines in order to gather with their families on Easter weekend. See the charts showing a breakdown of the results (DK).

Soccer and amusement parks are back

In other news (DK), the Tivoli and Bakken amusement parks are opening today, albeit with limitations on the wildest roller coasters in order to prevent infections from screaming riders. Soccer play resumed in the Danish Superliga as the AGF club used the Zoom videoconferencing platform on a large screen at the Ceres Park stadium in Aarhus to create a "virtual grandstand." The match with Randers ended in a 1-1 tie.