Coronavirus DK: Will it ever end?

Now that I’m finished with two book projects that have occupied most of the past year, I intend to resume posting to this blog. Although the topics will concern other things besides Covid, it may be useful to update the state of the pandemic here in light of the new surge and increased uncertainty around the world.

Denmark believes it is returning to normal. Vaccinations have been proceeding steadily, and a large majority of the adult population has now been fully vaccinated. Several test centers are being closed because they are no longer needed. The Social Democratic administration had been under pressure to ease restrictions on commercial and public behavior, and there is a consensus that the country won’t be subject to a lockdown again as others countries have been. Almost all the restrictions are being phased out (DK). Very few people wear masks in public and maintain social distance, almost all of them elderly

67% of Danes fully vaccinated; photo: Emil Helms / Ritzau Scanpix

Partying like it's 2019
Schools will open on schedule, with no requirement for masks. Masks are no longer required on public transportation. For indoor service, restaurants and bars require a “corona passport” documenting vaccination or a negative test, as do fitness centers and service businesses such as hairdressers. Limits on public gatherings and attendance at cultural and sporting events and church services have been raised. Nightclubs and discotheques are the only venues that are still closed. Travel restrictions were also eased during the summer holiday season. 

But the delta variant is interfering with a smooth transition back to pre-pandemic conditions. Infections and hospitalizations (DK) are rising again after dropping to very low levels at the end of June. They got a boost from the raucous crowds gathering to watch Denmark make it to semifinals of the European Cup soccer championship from mid-June to early July. The country now ranks in the top third of Europe (DK) in the recent infection rate.

There is a contingency plan (DK) to lockdown a county or an individual parish if it experiences an acute spike in cases: more than 20 cases; 1,000 infections per 100,000; and a positive results in more than 3% of tests. If it is closed, the area must be come under the limits for seven days before it reopens. There are no closures at present.

Covid-19 in Denmark, 19 August 2021

• Infections: yesterday 984; total 333,815 (below 200 daily in late June)
• Hospitalizations; yesterday 116 (below 30 in early July)
• ICU: yesterday 16
• Deaths: yesterday 0; total 2,562
• Positive test results: 1.60% (0.17% in June)
• Reproduction number: 1.0 (1.3 in July)
• Deaths per million: 442 (vs. USA 1,876; UK 1,930; Sweden 1,460; Norway 149)
• Infections per 100,000 in past week: 119 (vs. UK 300; France 260; Sweden 57; Germany 36)
• Vaccinations begun (first shot): 74.4% of the population
• Fully vaccinated: 67.3%

A new report from the State Serum Institute (DK) shows that the vaccines are still effective against both the delta and alpha variants in preventing infections and hospitalizations.  

Coronavirus DK: Comprehensive reopening plan

Unlike some of the larger Western European countries, Denmark has not been hit by a third wave of Covid-19 cases. The country is planning a full reopening by the end of May.

Update on the pandemic in Denmark:

• Infections have been rising slowly (DK) but steadily in the past month. Now they are around 600-700 per day.
• Hospitalizations ( approx. 200), ICU cases (40), and deaths (under 5 per day) have remained low in the same period.
• Deaths per million stand at 418, in comparison with the US (1,668), the UK (1,874), Sweden (1,135), and Norway (122).
• Testing has increased steadily to 180,000 per day. The positive ratio is 0.38%. The reproduction number has risen steadily this year from 0.7 to 1.1 earlier this month.
• Vaccinations have been delayed. 11.7% of the population has gotten the first dose, and 6.2% has gotten two doses. Large shipments are expected in April.

The unwanted vaccine. Photo: DADO RUVIC © Scanpix.

Return to normal?

Last week Parliament announced a comprehensive plan to relax restrictions (DK) over a six-week period beginning on April 6, in this order: the rest of schools and other educational institutions for part-time physical attendance; stores and shopping centers; outdoor service at restaurants; theaters, concert halls, and indoor service at restaurants; sports and other recreational activities. If the pandemic flares up again, the government reserves the right to postpone measures and implement local restrictions.

Some researchers warn that the reopening will cause cases to double. Nine cases of the Brazilian variant, P1 (DK), have been found recently, and authorities worry that it may be more infectious and less responsive to the vaccine than others. 

The suspension of the AstraZeneca vaccine (DK) has been extended an additional three weeks, until April 15. Despite the European Medicines Agency’s recommendation to resume vaccinations, the Danish Health Authority says it needs more time to investigate the risk of blood clots. 

Men in Orange
A few lockdown protestors from the Men in Black movement have been given extraordinarily long sentences (DK) on the basis of section 81d of the criminal code on “crimes related to the Covid-19 epidemic.” These include the woman who urged protestors to “smash the city in a non-violent way” before a riot that resulted in injuries to several police officers. Other protestors have been charged for actions during the demonstrations, including the man who burned a photo of Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen in effigy on a poster carrying the slogan “She must be and will be put down” (that is, euthanized, an allusion to the culling of large numbers of mink in Denmark last month). Some of the left-wing parties who voted for section 81d are now saying that the proposed sentences are unduly harsh.

Coronavirus DK: Outbreak of B117 at schools

It’s a race between the slow-moving vaccines in the European Union bureaucracy and the opportunistic B117 mutation. 

Infections, hospitalizations, and deaths had been falling steadily for more than a month (DK) under the tight restrictions that are scheduled to run until February 28. The only easing since Christmas was opening schools up to the fourth grade. 

PM Mette Frederiksen burned in effigy at lockdown protest. Photo: Mads Claus Rasmussen.

Growing impatience with restrictions
As the situation improved, an increasing number of people have been agitating to allow stores, small businesses and schools to open up. Demonstrators from the Facebook group Men in Black have clashed with police and burned Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen in effigy (DK) with the slogan “she must and shall be put down,” that is, euthanized. Another Facebook group planned a coordinated business opening in defiance of the rules.

There is a conspiracy theory element in the protests – people claiming that the pandemic is a hoax and a plot for pharma companies to profit and government to install permanent surveillance measures. But most lockdown skeptics seem to be motivated by economic hardship. Even rule-abiding retirees who don’t need get out and mix with people are getting restless. Last week the government announced that it would announce [sic] something about the restrictions this Wednesday, and many had anticipated further easing.

Now it's going after the children

Then two severe outbreaks occurred, one of them at a school in Kolding, Jutland (DK), where a case of the UK B117 mutation infected 67 people. Children had been thought to be largely resistant to the coronavirus, but it appears that the B117 mutation infects them more easily than the previous strains. Children do not usually become very sick, but they can become hidden superspreaders. 

The prevalence of the B117 mutation has been rising steadily and now accounts for more than 45% of cases. In the past two weeks, cases among young people under 20 were almost as high as for those 20-60. One-third of the 250 people infected in Kolding were under the age of 10. The municipality closed all the schools and day-care centers. It had wanted to test every resident age two and above in the coming week, but raised the threshold to 12.

Percentage of UK B117 coronavirus variant in Danish spot checks. 

Wildly optimistic vaccine prediction 

Meanwhile, the vaccine is still delayed. The government recently announced that it would be prepared to administer 400,000 vaccinations per day (DK). But at present only 10,000 people are being vaccinated per day, and the total vaccinated in two months is under 300,000. That is 5% of the population, which is still high by European standards. But the government apparently doesn’t buy the argument for First Doses First and has given second doses to 3%. People also ask why, in light of the delays in the EU plan, it hasn’t tried to buy the Russian vaccine directly.

The government had estimated that the entire population could get one dose by the end of May and a second by June 27. But if young people and children also need to be vaccinated, the process could go on through the summer. It also adds the standard warnings that after the vaccinations we will need to continue to take precautions, to see how long immunity from the vaccine lasts, and if an annual shot is needed, to see how the vaccine handles new mutations. There’s no return to normal on the calendar. 

Coronavirus DK: Restrictions extended until March

In a press conference yesterday, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced that Denmark will extend its tight pandemic restrictions (DK) an additional three weeks from February 7 to February 28. The main reason she gave was the B117 mutation: “We have seen how quickly the new mutation can bring things out of control. Therefore, we cannot ease the restrictions. Even though more people are being vaccinated, we must go forward carefully.” The measures include the closure of all restaurants, bars and retail businesses, except for supermarkets and pharmacies and a limit on gatherings to five persons. Frederiksen left open the possibility of allowing the youngest pupils, from kindergarten to fourth grade, to return to school before March.

PM Mette Frederiksen bringing bad news yet again. Photo: Liselotte Sabroe/Ritzau Scanpix.

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The pandemic figures have been falling (DK) since the restrictions were put in place just before Christmas. Daily infections have dropped from around 3,000 to around 500; the percentage of positive tests from a peak of 4% to 0.6%; total hospitalizations from about 900 to 600; and the reproduction number from above 1.0 to 0.7. The percentage of infections deriving from the B117 mutation, however, has risen steadily to 13.%

Vaccine trouble
As in other European countries, the delivery of vaccines has been delayed (DK). Denmark is part of the European Union deal on Pfizer and BioNTech vaccines. The State Serum Institute estimates that the vaccination of groups with lower priority will come around five weeks later than originally scheduled, in April and May. The agency still hopes that everyone will be vaccinated before the end of June. It is pursuing a policy of giving people the second dose of the vaccine three weeks after the first instead of the First Doses First approach taken by some countries in which the second dose is postponed for months in order to give more people the first dose sooner. Thus far, 3.15% of the population have received the first dose and 0.64% have received two doses.

An increasing number of business owners and others are disappointed and angered by the extension. Around 10% of businesses are reported to have serious liquidity problems and are at risk of going bankrupt. In response, the government today announced a new aid package (DK) of loans and other measures worth DKK 170 billion (USD 27 billion). 

Travel scandals
Others are also becoming impatient with the restrictions. There have been a couple of minor scandals recently concerning violations of travel restrictions. Some people have taken to ski resorts in Austria (DK), one of the main hotspots one year ago, under the guise of pursing job opportunities. Last week, it was reported that 50 infected persons had entered Denmark from Dubai (DK) in January. Some 33 of them arrived after the January 9 requirement that passengers coming to Denmark be tested. They had all received negative test results in Dubai before boarding the flight, and there is suspicion of “irregularities” in the testing in Dubai. Some of the travelers were professional athletes and influencers who shared their trip on social media despite the restrictions on travel abroad. After this discovery, the Danish authorities suspended flights from Dubai to Denmark for five days.

After double overtime
But all isn’t doom and gloom. On Wednesday, at the World Handball Championships, the Danish men’s team beat host team Egypt by a score of 39-38 on the final penalty shot in “the most insane handball game in the history of the world,” according to the commentator Henrik Liniger. The team qualified for the semifinal against Spain, which you can watch this evening at 8:30 pm CET (2:30 pm EST) on dr.dk.

Coronavirus DK: Riots, Danish style

Perhaps inspired by the MAGA mob that stormed the US Capitol building, a Danish group calling itself “Men in Black” held protest demonstrations in Copenhagen (DK) and Aalborg yesterday evening. The demonstrations had been announced in advance and were therefore legal. Demonstrations are the only exception to the limit on public gatherings. Several hundred people - indeed mostly attired in black, both guys and gals - met up at the Copenhagen City Hall Plaza around 7 p.m. to listen to speakers who led them in chants: “Freedom for Denmark! We have had enough!” 

The purpose of event was apparently to complain about lockdown restrictions, which have recently been tightened in Denmark, as they have nearly everywhere else. I say “apparently” because that was how it was described by more than one journalist on the scene. The police also reported that they recognized some figures from the “hooligan scene,” that is, soccer fans who fight with supporters of rival teams. 

Demonstrators at CPH City Hall Plaza. Photo: Jonas Moestrup / TV 2

At various times, the speakers expressed objections to the mask requirement and other restrictions, warned that the vaccine is dangerous, and asserted that the coronavirus crisis was a hoax (DK): “We are mad, we are tired, and we are about to go crazy. Where is that virus?” Individual protestors interviewed advocated the theory of a worldwide conspiracy led by Bill Gates and the pharma industry, claiming also that the Danish state had engineered the bankruptcy of small shops so that it could take them over for financial gain. In recent months there have been a few other demonstrations against restrictions, which have all been peaceful. 

“Smash the city in a non-violent way”
In the beginning, the crowd was content to light torches and listen to its leaders, who urged them on with a distinctly Danish moderation: “Are you ready to smash the city in a non-violent way?” The crowd might have had trouble interpreting that exhortation, perhaps unique in the history of insurrectionary war cries. They began shooting fireworks (which are legal only around New Year’s Eve), throwing beer bottles, and then marching down Strøget, the main pedestrian street in the commercial district. 

The police were well prepared for them, however. Vans full of them were waiting on Strøget with their batons drawn, and they drove the crowd back to City Hall Plaza. They announced over loudspeakers that the demonstration was over and people should disperse, “in the name of the Queen and the Law.” The crowd broke up into smaller groups and headed down side streets, with much confusion, taunting, and yelling. There seemed to be little direct fighting between the factions, although the demonstrators shot fireworks at police vans. 

Quick and painless
The demonstrators continued into the Nørrebro district, with the police following close after. The police arrested several people for fireworks violations, resisting arrest, and attacking officers. Smaller groups of up to one hundred coalesced at a few locations, and there were low-key confrontations. But by around 9:30 p.m., activity had quieted down and the police announced that it was “slowly putting the city to bed.”

The demonstrations in Aalborg were smaller and were dispersed even more quickly. A total of 23 people were arrested. No one was reported injured in either city. You can see several brief video clips at the links.

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Stay hunkered down
At a press conference yesterday, December 29, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, who may have aged five years in 2020, announced that the restrictions imposed last week would be extended an additional two weeks (DK) from January 3 to January 17. “The situation regarding infection figures, hospitalizations and deaths is now more serious than it was in the spring,” she said. Small businesses, retail outlets except for supermarkets and pharmacies, bars, and restaurants except for takeout must remain closed.

Healthcare staff conducting Covid-19 test. Photo: Niels Christian Vilmann © Scanpix.

The number of daily infections has fallen from the peak of 4,000 a week ago, but several nursing homes have seen serious outbreaks. With 900 admissions, hospitals are under pressure (DK) to find vacant beds and are postponing all non-urgent operations. 

Netflix and chill NYE
Ministers and health officials warn people to skip New Year’s Eve parties (DK) this year: Cancel plans to see people that you don’t normally see; limit gatherings to your household and perhaps a few familiar persons, no more than ten; avoid popular outdoor sites. The police will close the City Hall Plaza, which traditionally attracts the largest crowds.

Coronavirus DK: Lockdown redux

Like most other Western European countries, Denmark is going back into total lockdown. On Wednesday, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and the pandemic task force held another press conference (DK) to announce further restrictions beyond the ones implemented last week. “We are doing it,” said Frederiksen, “because an epidemic that runs out of control will have serious consequences and more serious consequences than closing down now will have.”

Mette Frederiksen and Magnus Heunicke at press conference. Photo: Mads Claus Rasmussen © Scanpix.

Record-high infections

The risk rating for the entire country was raised to 4, the second-highest level. On the same day as the press conference, the State Serum Institute reported the highest number of infections ever, 3,692. More than 22,000 cases were registered in the past week, and hospitalizations rose by 54 to 493. 

The following additional organizations and activities were ordered to close (DK) during the coming week:

• Beginning today, Thursday, the 17th, shopping centers and department stores.
• Beginning on Monday, the 21st, boarding schools; and small businesses; and the remaining elementary school pupils, from kindergarten to the fourth grade. Other students had already been attending classes online.
• From December 25 to January 3, all retails shops except supermarkets and pharmacies.

Christmas not canceled

The limit on gatherings is unchanged at ten, but Frederiksen urged people to limit Christmas festivities as much as possible. Earlier, the State Serum Institute estimated that the Christmas holidays would cause the number of infections to double. Certain researchers have recommended closing the Great Belt Bridge, which connects Zealand to Funen and Jutland, in order to prevent the virus from spreading from the hotspot of Greater Copenhagen. The government has decided against it, however, because Christmas is a “special holiday,” said Søren Bostrøm, head of the Healthcare Authority. The police noted their concerns about New Year’s Eve, warning people not to gather at the traditional locations such as Copenhagen City Hall Plaza.

Exception for daycare centers

The only major institutions that aren’t closing are daycare centers, and the leaders and staff are complaining (DK) about it. Children do not often get sick, but they infect their parents, they note. Many staff members are sick or quarantined, putting more pressure on those who remain. The government’s rationale, according to Magnus Heunicke, Minister of Health, is that someone has to take care of the children of essential workers, such as healthcare staff and the police, and the Health Authority does not consider the risks at daycare centers to be high. “The healthcare system is under pressure,” said Bostrøm, “and we need to prioritize so that the staff can take care of the sickest patients.” That means, among other things, that elective surgery may be postponed until January.

Frederiksen doubts that these latest measures will have a significant effect on the Danish economy, which has performed better in 2020 than had been expected during the lockdown in the spring. The government is already at work on a new relief package for businesses and employees who are affected by the lockdown. 

Coronavirus DK: Second wave takes its toll on social activity

Yesterday, Monday, December 7, the Danish government announced a new set of restrictions for the capital region and the two other largest cities. It was the day that the restrictions announced last week took effect and also the first day with more than 2,000 new infections. The State Serum Institute had presented a projection (DK) showing that, if nothing were done, the healthcare system could come under pressure before Christmas, with more than 4,000 daily infections and 500 hospitalizations. Increasing the tracing activity wouldn’t be sufficient to stop the spread from accelerating. The situation could be worse than in the spring, the report said, since there could be a shortage of healthcare staff because of a greater emphasis on quarantining people who are exposed to the virus. 

Back to takeout for urban eateries. Photo: Oscar Scott Carl © Scanpix.

These are the latest measures (DK), which apply from Wednesday, December 9, to January 3:

• Thirty-eight municipalities, with a total of 2.8 million residents – almost half the country – will be partially locked down.
• Restaurants and bars may not serve guests; they can offer takeout.
• Theaters, concert halls, museums, libraries and other public buildings are closed.
• Schools and universities from the fifth grade upwards must operate online; daycare centers will stay open.
• Civil servants are to work at home as much as possible.
• Indoor sports and other recreational activities are closed; professional sports events can continue, with a limit of 500 spectators.
• People in the affected municipalities should comply with these restrictions generally and not travel to other regions in order to participate in the banned activities.
• Families should limit Christmas gatherings to ten people.

The usual debate
Two virologists who have often been consulted about the pandemic disagree about the decision (DK). Søren Riis Paludan from Aarhus University thinks that the government should have waited to implement the restrictions until December 20, when the country normally closes down partially for the holidays, because of the high costs for education and the economy. 

On the other hand, Allan Randrup Thomsen of the University of Copenhagen says the new restrictions should have been included in the policies announced last week. He believes that recent half-measures such as closing bars and restaurants at 10 p.m. have not worked because people simply adjust their behavior, by going out earlier, for example. The researchers do agree, however, that Christmas traditions pose an increased threat of infection and that the course of the pandemic depends on people taking responsibility themselves for minimizing the dangers. 

Good news for country inns
Economists are sounding the alarm (DK) that, because of the new measures, business activity will get off to a slow start in 2021, when it was supposed to recover. Jeppe Juul Borre from Arbejdernes Landsbank notes that 60 percent of the country’s hospitality industry, which has already been the hardest hit by the pandemic, lies in the affected municipalities. He has reduced his GDP estimate for this year and warns that unemployment could rebound after falling over the summer.

There will always be arguments on both sides. Some political parties are criticizing the government (DK) for waiting too long to act, and some restaurants outside the cities are reporting a surge in reservations (DK) from people in the lockdown areas.

Coronavirus DK: Making Christmas safe for grandparents

Yesterday the Danish government held a press conference to announce new restrictions (DK) because of the persistently high level of infections in the Greater Copenhagen region. The pandemic is not accelerating significantly, and the hospitals are not filling. But in past the month infections have remained much higher than in the spring, and they hit a record number yesterday (DK), at 1,468.

Minister of Health Magnus Heunicke, along with several other officials, presented the new measures, which take effect on December 7. The restrictions apply to 17 municipalities, which on average have a higher incidence of infection and higher positive test rate than the rest of the country. Heunicke explained that the restrictions are necessary because the pandemic is expected to spread more easily during the winter months and people are also more likely to gather during the holidays. He acknowledged that people are tired of pandemic and the restrictions but urged everyone to comply during the coming month because of the prospect of vaccine becoming available early in next year.

Invitation to all-inclusive staycation © Grafik: Mads Peter Ogstrup Nielsen

Talking about you, young people
Heunicke focused on measures to contain the spread of the virus among students and young adults. The most striking trend in infection statistics in the past few weeks has been a disproportionate number of cases in the 10-19 and 20-29 age groups. This reflects the facts that young people circulate more widely and may be less concerned about the virus than older people because they experience milder symptoms and recover more easily. But Heunicke cautioned that even if they are not threatened as seriously, they still pose a risk to others, particularly during the holidays when families gather across generations. He issued what amounted to a plea to this group to moderate their behavior until the vaccine can be dispensed.

The main initiative in the new measures is therefore a campaign, beginning today, to test everyone from 15 to 25 in the metropolitan region before Christmas. That is around 200,000 young people. There will be mobile units visiting schools and universities as well as additional testing capacity at existing test centers. The tracing staff will be increased, and there will be better conditions at isolation facilities, including meals free of charge. Other measures include limitations on contact for schoolchildren in classrooms and a maximum of 10 in sports and other after-school activities.

Work at home, shop alone, party next year
Workplaces and higher educational institutions are urged to conduct activities online. Large retail outlets and shopping centers are to monitor customer traffic and allow more space per customer, and people are urged to do their Christmas shopping alone. There are selective restrictions and bans on visiting nursing homes that have seen outbreaks. People are urged generally to see as few others as possible, with a maximum of 10 at both private and public gatherings. 

Heunicke and the other officials noted that the situation in Denmark is not as dire and the new measures are not as strict as in several other European countries, but the country has recently had to deal with outbreaks at mink farms and in the western suburbs and it must remain vigilant. The main purpose of effort is to avert a surge of infections that could take place after people travel and gather for holiday shopping and gatherings.

Coronavirus DK: Of mink and ministers

Like most everywhere else, Denmark is suffering from the second wave, but it is much milder here than in the larger European countries and in its misguided neighbor Sweden. That hasn’t prevented a political scandal about what should have been a secondary issue, though. 

Mink enjoying their last days in captivity. Photo: Mads Claus Rasmussen © Scanpix.

First, an overdue summary of the health situation (DK):

• Cases of infection (yesterday/total): 1,220 / 64,551 (800-1,200 in past month)
• Tested (yesterday/total): 68,750 / 6,455,895
• Hospitalized (yesterday/total): net -8 / 259
• Intensive (yesterday/total): net -3 / 41
• Recovered (yesterday/total): 1,265 / 49,961
• Deaths (yesterday/total): 4 / 768
• Percentage of positive tests: 1.6% (1.3%-1.9% in past month)
• Reproduction number (est.): 1.1
• Deaths per million: 133 (vs. Norway 55; Sweden 614; USA 751; UK 772; Italy 755)

And a summary of the restrictions in effect (DK):

• Face masks required on public transportation, in public buildings, in supermarkets and shopping centers, at doctors’ offices, clinics and hospitals; partial requirement at schools and other educational institutions. 
• Limit on gatherings to 10 people in public places; recommended also for private gatherings.
• Limit of 500 people at sports events, concerts and churches.
• Restaurants and bars close at 10 pm. Masks required except when sitting down. Nightclubs closed. Sale of alcohol banned everywhere after 10 pm.
• The municipalities in northern Jutland that were closed for travel have reopened.

Minkgate
The big story of the past week or two has been the government's handling of the infections discovered at mink farms in Jutland. It has been well-covered in English-language media. The story morphed from being about the health threat of the outbreak to a scandal about Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s premature and illegal order to destroy 15 million mink and then Agriculture Minister Mogens Jensen’s apparent disregard for several warnings about the spread. Frederiksen has rescinded the order and apologized, and the government has reached a compromise on culling the mink and compensating the breeders, although the measures have not been enacted yet and Opposition parties have been critical of the entire series of events.

Agriculture minister and chickens also face termination
Denmark is the largest mink fur exporter in the world. Kopenhagen Fur (DK), the auction house for some 1,500 breeders in Denmark, recently announced that it would close over the next two or three years. In the spring and summer, Frederiksen enjoyed high approval ratings for her handling of epidemic and withstood criticism of the lockdown from the business-friendly right-wing parties. Now it appears that more people are suffering “corona fatigue” and are also tiring of her relatively autocratic style of governing. Even the government’s supporting parties are saying that Jensen should resign (DK). 

On top of this came a discovery of serious cases of bird flu (DK) earlier this month. Some 25,000 chickens have been culled, and exports of chicken and eggs outside the EU have been suspended. This outbreak poses no threat to humans.

Coronavirus DK: Second wave may be losing steam

 According to tradition, Parliament opens its annual session on the first Tuesday in October, and the prime minister gives a speech on the state of the nation (DK). PM Mette Frederiksen used the occasion to emphasize that, although the country has undergone a resurgence of coronavirus infections, the epidemic is under control: “We have proved that we can both protect individual lives and at the same time be one of the economies that emerges the strongest from the pandemic.” She announced that the government has established a new warning system that will allow the authorities to adjust restrictions more easily. 

This is the status: On Tuesday, October 7, there were 322 new cases of infection (DK), the lowest level since September 11, down from the peak of 652 on September 23. The number hospitalized has been rising slowly but steadily to 124, and the number of death now totals 633. The reproduction number has fallen below 1.0 for the first time since August. Testing has increased recently to about 50,000 per day. More than 23,000 are reported to have recovered from the infection.+

Even though the trend in infections is falling, a large majority of municipalities, 80 out of 98, still have an infection rate above 20 per 10,000 during the past week, the threshold for restricting travel to foreign countries. In the past week, the rate fell in 60 municipalities and rose in 30. 

PM Mette Frederiksen at the opening of Parliament. Photo: Mads Claus Rasmussen / Scanpix.

First MP infected
One person who missed the opening speech was Bjørn Brandenborg, the first member of Parliament to become infected (DK). Brandenborg is a Social Democrat and chair of the Tax Committee who was elected to Parliament in 2019. He took part in a committee meeting last Tuesday at which all participants observed social distancing and hand hygiene. He noticed symptoms the next morning, was tested immediately, and notified his contacts. There have been no reports of other MPs catching the infection since then.

The Minister of Justice has proposed increasing the fine for taking part in gatherings of more than 50 people in order to stop the so-called “pirate parties” (DK) that young people have been caught holding on weekends. The fine is currently DKK 2,500 (USD 400). It will be raised to DKK 4,000 (USD 630) for participants and DKK 10,000 (USD 1,600) for arrangers. The police have extended the closure of two areas in Copenhagen (DK) where young people have held parties and will continue monitoring several other popular hangouts. 

No trick or treat this year
The Health Authority has put a damper on Halloween (DK). It recommends that children not go door to door and avoid large costume parties. It suggests that they invite a few close friends over and enjoy some candy, but it should be served in separate pieces and not eaten from a large bowl. Week 42, beginning on Monday, October 14, is the autumn school vacation, and the Health Authority also recommends recreational activities that do not involve large groups and close contact.

Statens Serum Institute, the infectious diseases agency, announced preliminary results from its antibody tests (DK). It invited 18,000 people to be tested. By August 15, around 6,000 had taken part, and 2.2 percent of them had been infected. The margin of error was fairly large, with a likely range from 1.8 percent to 2.6 percent. Extrapolated to the entire population, that would mean that 90,000 to 130,000 persons in Denmark have been infected. That is in contrast to the official number of confirmed cases on that date of 15,763. One reason the results are uncertain is that not everyone who is infected has antibodies. Although the results are tentative, the SSI believes an infection level of around 2 percent shows that efforts to control the epidemic have generally functioned well.

Update: Restrictions extended
Wednesday, 3pm CET: Minister of Health Magnus Heunicke announced that, despite the recent drop in infections, the restrictions in force will be extended until October 31.

Coronavirus DK: More infections, restrictions and testing

 Like many other European countries, Denmark has seen Covid-19 infections rise (DK) and has resumed restrictions on social and business activity. In the past week, new daily infections have risen above 500, which is higher than the peak of the first wave. They have subsided somewhat in the past week. As before, the number of hospitalizations and deaths remain low. In the past two weeks, daily hospitalizations have risen to double digits and there have been 13 deaths. The reproduction number has fallen slightly to 1.3.

Restaurant sign showing reduced capacity and hours. Photo: Lisbeth Janniche.

Partial lockdown
The restrictions (DK) that were implemented in Greater Copenhagen now apply to the entire country until October 4:

• Restaurants, bars and cafes must close by 10 pm.
• Gatherings are limited to 50 people. Attendance at sporting and cultural events are limited to 500 people.
• Masks must be worn by people over the age of 12 on public transportation, including taxis; by employees and visitors at hospitals, nursing homes and doctors’ offices; and by employees and customers at restaurants and cafes when they are not sitting at tables (not yet at stores and businesses, although health authorities say they will be covered too if the infection rate rises further).
• Alcohol is banned on buses (including so-called “party buses).
• Strict rules apply to visits to hospitals and nursing homes.

Additional recommendations.

• Avoid public transportation at rush hour; ride a bicycle or walk instead.
• Both public and private employees who are able to work at home are urged to do so.
• People are advised to limit their social contacts as much as possible.
• While daycare centers, schools and universities remain open, social arrangements at them are discouraged.

Low mortality rate
Some good news: the mortality rate for patients at Danish hospitals (DK) is relatively low. During the first wave, that is, in the period ending May 19, some 63 percent of ICU patients recovered. In many other countries, including the US, the UK and Italy, the rate was around 50 percent. The average age of the patients was 68. Around 30 percent had no preexisting illness. 

The breakdown by sex in total mortality rate of 37 percent was 42 percent men and 29 percent women. The breakdown by age in the total mortality rate was 5 percent for the 50-64 age group and 64 percent for patients over 80. 

More testing and longer waiting
The administration has promised that testing would be increased significantly for months, and lately the number of test centers and the number of tests administered have increased. Around six weeks ago, the number of daily tests reached 30,000 per day, and in the past week, it has exceeded 40,000 and 50,000. The goal was that 80 percent of requests for tests should be granted within 24 hours and the subjects should receive the results within 24 hours. 

Nevertheless, there are long waiting periods at many test centers (DK). On September 23, it was possible to be tested within 24 hours at only three of the 48 test centers across the country. In a few places, the delays were up to seven days, and sometimes when people appear for test they must wait in line up to six hours before they are tested. The Opposition parties are criticizing the administration for not fulfilling the agreement that was made as a condition for phase 4 of the reopening plan, and Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen reiterated the government’s commitment to the 24-hour framework.

Self-testing for antibodies
The government also has an ambitious plan to test 2 million people for antibodies (DK) during the autumn and in the beginning of the new year. That would be 35 percent of the population. Test kits will be sent to people’s homes, and they will administer the tests themselves by pricking a finger and letting a drop of blood on a testing strip. The result will appear in 15 minutes. 

Coronavirus DK: Infections up and restrictions back

Denmark has seen a steady rise in infections (DK) in the past month, although the number of hospitalizations and deaths remain low. For three months, from the beginning of May to the beginning of August, the number of daily infections was below 100. Since the beginning of September, it has been above 200, rising to 300 this past week. Hospitalizations number 47, 4 in ICUs, and deaths total 631. The reproduction number has fluctuated between 1.0 and 1.5 since mid-July, and it is back at 1.5. Testing has also increased significantly.

The number of deaths per million is now 109. In comparison, the figure is 588 in Italy, 589 in the US, and 616 in the UK. The other Nordic countries: 49 in Norway, 582 in Sweden, and 61 in Finland. 

New restrictions but no return to a general lockdown
Tighter restrictions (DK) went into effect last week. In 18 municipalities, almost all of them in Greater Copenhagen, the limit on gatherings was reduced from 100 to 50 and bars had to close by midnight instead of 2 a.m. The limit on spectators at major sports events was reduced to 500. Face masks have been required on public transportation for two weeks now. 

The number of infections per 100,000 inhabitants has risen above 20 in 39 municipalities, and the mayors of several of them are asking that similar restrictions be implemented there. Many of them have placed limits on visits to nursing homes. But virologist Allan Randrup Thomsen (DK) does not think it is necessary in every case. The absolute number of infections is what matters most, and in some municipalities with a small number of inhabitants, the infections have come from individual incidents.

For example, if an infection is discovered in a school, it may be sufficient to close the school or class temporarily without setting restrictions on the entire community. Future restrictions will probably be implemented locally. One of the next likely measures is requiring face masks in supermarkets and shopping centers. 

Copenhagen Sunday evening. Photo: Ólafur Steinar Rye Gestsson / Ritzau Scanpix.

Young people can’t stop partying
One of the main reasons for the rise in infections, besides the loosening of earlier restrictions, is that young people are holding parties and frequenting bars and parks without observing social distancing measures. Persons from 20 to 30 account for large portion of new infections. At a press conference on Saturday (DK), Police Chief Thorkild Fogde issued a warning that if young people do not become more careful, the police will need to reinvoke tighter restrictions.

It has already made two parks in the Nørrebro district of Copenhagen off-limits, and a violation of the ban is subject to a fine of DKK 2,500 (about $400). Patrols have broken up so-called “pirate parties” at several locations on the weekends. The further restrictions could be requiring masks at bars, closing bars earlier in the evening, and banning gatherings in other areas. Several universities have suspended social activities involving more than 50 attendees. 

Economy is relatively sound
Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen (DK) issued a statement on September 11, exactly six months after the government announced lockdown restrictions. She emphasized that the Danish economy has recovered much faster than it did after the financial crisis. The number of unemployed has fallen from a peak of 45,000 to 25,000. Housing prices have risen since March, particularly for vacation homes. Consumer spending has recovered. Certain industries, such as hospitality and travel, have suffered long-lasting damage, but others, such as the DIY segment, have thrived during the epidemic.

As in the rest of the world, the stock market has rebounded from the initial selloff. Exports have not recovered yet because they are dependent on the economies of other countries. The recovery has been owing to the government’s relief package, and it is difficult to predict its long-term effects. Economist Michael Svarer expects the recovery to continue. He does not expect a deep second drop, as a in W-shaped pattern, but rather something resembling Nike’s swoosh logo.

Coronavirus DK: Resurgence in infections

In recent weeks, Denmark has seen a rise in coronavirus infections (DK), and the trend is accelerating. On Wednesday, 112 new cases were registered. That is the largest number since May 7. The increase has come particularly in two areas. Some 42 of the new cases occurred in Aarhus, Denmark’s second-largest city, and most of them arose among the city’s Somalian population. Several bus drivers were also found to be infected (DK), and hundreds of passengers may have been exposed to them. A large crowd gathered to celebrate the local soccer team’s bronze medal, but thus far no significant number of infections has been traced to it.

Aarhus soccer fans celebrating. Photo: Mikkel Berg Pedersen, Ritzau Scanpix.

The other hotspot is the Danish Crown slaughterhouse in Ringsted, a smaller city on the island of Sjælland. In the past week, the municipality has had an infection rate of 178 per 100,000 inhabitants, in comparison with 10 in Copenhagen and 40 in Aarhus. 

No jump in fatalities
The number of infections had averaged below 30 for most of July. Since July 27, it has been generally above 60. Despite the rise in cases, the number of hospitalizations and deaths has hardly increased. Yesterday, there were 23 patients hospitalized, 2 in ICUs, and a total of 616 had died. There may be a lag between the increase in infections and a rise in hospitalizations and deaths. Officials have warned previously that there is a risk of a second wave in September, after people have returned from summer vacation.

Phase 4 reopening questioned
The new wave comes at a time when the country has planned to increase the limit on gatherings (DK) from 100 to 200. The transition to phase 4 of the reopening is scheduled to take place on Saturday, but some health officials are warning that it should be postponed. Minister of Health Magnus Heunicke and Kåre Mølbak of SSI, the agency for preparedness against infectious diseases, are against opening concert halls and night clubs now.

Kirsten Normann Andersen, health spokesperson of the Socialist People’s Party, believes it is very risky to allow large gatherings that can result in superspreader events. Many Members of Parliament are on vacation now, and some representatives of the Opposition say that the prime minister and the administration should be taking action. The next meeting on the reopening is not scheduled to take place until August 12, after the increase in the ceiling will have taken effect.

Return to restrictions possible
There are also discussions about returning to lockdown conditions (DK) in several areas that have opened up. The most likely venues to be closed are sports stadiums and fitness centers. The likelihood of postponing the opening of schools and universities and of closing day-care centers is lower, as is the closing of restaurants, shopping centers and foreign borders. 

The outbreak in Aarhus
The municipality of Aarhus has already closed nursing homes for visits (DK), and the mayor and the police have warned that they will implement further restrictions if necessary. Pia Kjærsgaard (DK), the founder of the Danish People’s Party, called for restrictions to be placed on the city’s districts with large Somali populations: “We must close the ghettoes, where the great majority of them live, for a period.” She speculated that the Somalis did not follow the news or understand the precautions that everyone is supposed to observe: “It doesn’t help if you sit and watch foreign TV when you should be informed of what is happening in the country where you live.”

Abdirahman M. Iidle (DK), the spokesperson for AarhuSomali, an association of Somali organizations in the city, did not know why the outbreak has occurred in that community. “We have not held any large arrangements, parties or religious holidays,” he said. The only large gathering was a funeral last week for a man who was shot, and that was attended by many people of other ethnic backgrounds as well. Like members of other minority groups, many Somalis hold jobs with high exposure to possible infection, such as healthcare assistant, cleaning staff and bus driver. 

Aarhus Mayor Jacob Bundsgaard says that the muncipality will focus preventive efforts on the neighborhoods with large Somali populations.

Coronavirus DK: The facemask debate continues

The number of infections in Denmark has been rising steadily for three or four weeks, and more and more governments around the world are requiring that people wear masks in public. Denmark still doesn’t require them except in special situations where people might have been exposed, but some politicians and researchers are beginning to speak of a general requirement. Michael Bang Petersen, Professor of Political Science at Aarhus University, says that masks could be the next step in the management of the pandemic. 

A matter of time
Bang Petersen has studied Danes' behavior, opinions and feelings during the coronavirus crisis and believes the authorities should prepare people for wearing masks (DK). “There is now a relatively broad consensus in other places that masks work,” says Bang Petersen. “I would therefore expect that there would be strong political pressure to recommend masks as a first layer of protection if there is a second wave.”

Masks are required on roller coasters. Photo: Mads Claus Rasmussen © Scanpix.

The EU has recently recommended that people wear masks on trains and in railway stations. Denmark’s Red-Green Party proposed that masks be required on public transport (DK). “There is a group of citizens who are actually excluded from using public transportation [because of the risk of infection],” says Peter Hvelplund, the party’s health spokesperson, “and therefore the Health Minister and Minister of Transport must find a solution.”

Not a second wave
Most of the parties are in favor of a recommendation to wear masks but do not believe it is necessary to make them mandatory while the infection rate remains low. “Masks are an option, but there is of course a tradeoff with the inconvenience of wearing them all the time,” says Stinus Lindgreen of the Social Liberal Party. 

Søren Brostrøm, the head of the Health Authority, says that at present there is no value in requiring masks (DK) in order to reduce infections. “We are following the figures closely across the country and locally in order to see whether we should use the tools we have in our toolbox,” says Brostrøm. “We don’t have anything against masks in principle. . . . We are ready if the situation requires it.” But he describes the latest rise in cases as a “flare-up” rather than the beginning of a second wave. 

Use the app
More than 820,000 people have now downloaded the contact-tracing app, Smittestop. But only 207 have registered having the infection. That is far from enough (DK), says Thomas Benfield, Professor of Infectious Disease Medicine at Hvidovre Hospital. “We should register four or five times as many before it becomes optimal.” The app did not become available until after the number of cases had already been reduced greatly. The delay in the rollout occurred because of concerns about privacy.

Coronavirus DK: Reversals in both Lockdown-gate and EU deal

On Saturday another piece of news came out about Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s decision to implement a strict lockdown (DK). As explained yesterday, Frederiksen said that the policy had been determined on the basis of “recommendation of the authorities.” But a recently discovered email from her closest healthcare advisor, Søren Brostrøm, had actually advised against closing the schools and day care centers. Frederiksen faces renewed criticism and questions about the specifics of these “recommendations.”

Kåre Mølbak at a coronavirus press conference. Photo: Niels Christian Vilmann, Ritzau Scanpix.

Now Kåre Mølbak, the director of Statens Serum Institut (SSI), the agency responsible for preparedness against infectious diseases, says in an email to the daily Politiken (DK, paywall) that he supported the administration’s decision. Mølbak was also one of the administration’s closest advisors during the worst period of the epidemic and appeared with Frederiksen and Brostrøm in several press conferences.

An “authority” comes forth
“For me it was essential that the government was prepared to maintain the comprehensive effort that was presented to me on March 11 until after Easter,” wrote Mølbak. “According to SSI’s assessment, this long-term perspective was necessary in order to bring the epidemic under control.”

In his March 11 email, Brostrøm had stated that he had “discussed” his conclusion with Mølbak, but Mølbak now says that at the time he did not share Brostrøm’s concerns about a lockdown. So it appears that Frederiksen has acquired at least one “authority” for her policy and may therefore escape the insinuations of dishonesty and deceit from the opposition parties that became more pointed after the disclosure of Brostrøm’s email.

Don’t celebrate yet, prime ministers
The historic agreement that European Union leaders recently reached on the next seven-year budget and emergency pandemic aid for southern Europe is now in doubt. The deal must be approved by the European Parliament, and at present, a large majority of the Parliament is against it. They voted 465-150 for a provisional resolution to reject the budget (DK).

They have several reservations. According to Manfred Weber, the chair of the Christian Conservative group, the Parliament’s largest bloc, more money in the budget should be directed toward research, healthcare and the EU’s outer borders. Along with other factions, Weber also insists that the disbursements to member states be contingent on adherence to the “European spirit,” that is, to democratic principles. 

No money for autocrats
“It is completely clear for us socialists,” said Iratxe Garcia Perez of the Social Democratic group, “that not a single euro should go to the governments that do not fully respect the rule of law and the fundamental values of the Union.” These are allusions to the infringement of freedom of the press and judicial independence in Hungary and similar tendencies in Poland. Those two countries succeeded avoiding immediate sanctions that affect their receipt of EU funds.

The resolution isn’t binding. The final vote is not scheduled to take place until the end of September.

Editorial note
You may have noticed that the news about the epidemic in Denmark has become less dramatic in recent weeks as the spread of infections remains under control despite the gradual relaxation of lockdown restrictions. There is no longer much need for these updates on a daily basis, so from now on, they will appear less frequently and may treat other topics besides the coronavirus. If there is a second wave that causes great disruption again, as is happening now in some locales, they can resume. Stay tuned, and thanks for reading.

Coronavirus DK: Justification for lockdown questioned again

The tabloid B.T. has discovered an email message that throws further doubt (DK) upon Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s justification for locking down Denmark in mid-March. The email, which was sent from Søren Brostrøm, head of the Health Authority, only seven hours before Frederiksen’s historic announcement of the lockdown, recommends not closing schools and day care centers. It states that “children are not expected to cause a significant spread of the virus” and the negative effects of the closure would outweigh the positive ones.

Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. Photo: Niels Christian Vilmann © Scanpix.

At the press conference, Frederiksen said that she was ordering the lockdown “on the recommendation of the authorities.” She has been questioned about the decision earlier. At a meeting requested by the opposition parties held on June 9, she reiterated that it was based on the recommendations of a “broad group of authorities” without specifying who or what she was referring to. The issue is important, says Sten Brønsing, Professor of Constitutional Law at Aalborg University, because ministers may not justify political decisions (DK) on the basis of recommendations of government officials if such recommendations have not been made.

Come clean, Mette
Now three opposition parties are demanding a clear explanation (DK): “We hope that she will realize on her own that it is reasonable to explain to the Danes why she said something that is not true,” says Peter Skaarup, leader of the Danish People’s Party parliamentary group. The effect of Frederiksen’s press conference was to “deceive the Danes,” continues Skaarup. “It cannot be interpreted otherwise.”

(Commentators have noted that both the administration and opposition parties have begun referring to the population as “the Danes” rather than “citizens” or “people.” Some have attributed populist, even subtly racist intentions to this usage, which might imply that a certain segment consists of real, ethnic Danes.)

Ratcheting up the rhetoric to “not honest”
The Liberal Party is demanding a written report (DK) from the prime minister and threatening to call for another investigatory meeting. “It is wrong that the prime minister in the beginning was not honest and did not say that this was a political decision,” says Karen Ellemann, the acting political spokesperson for the Party. “We have asked several times who had recommended [the lockdown].” The Conservative Party is also criticizing Frederiksen for not being forthcoming.

In none of these accusations did the opposition say that the lockdown was wrong or was a bad decision. They did not contain any evaluation of the administration’s lockdown policy itself or its consequences in comparison with results in countries that did not implement similar restrictions. The opposition pressured the government to relax restrictions earlier than it had planned, but Frederiksen has had a high approval rating in opinion surveys throughout the crisis.

She is away on vacation at present. Her office refers inquiries to the explanation given at the June 9 meeting. Parliament has appointed a commission that will evaluate the entire management of the coronavirus crisis.