The Putin Referendum & important announcement

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The Putin Referendum

Like other European nations, Denmark is supporting Ukraine in its defense against the Russian invasion. It is imposing sanctions, and many companies have stopped Russian operations and trade. It has sent humanitarian and military aid. It is increasing military spending (DK) to 2 percent of GDP, in accordance with NATO policy (albeit slowly—by 2033). It has assented to NATO’s request that it send troops to Latvia. It has agreed to accept 100,000 refugees, a huge increase from the normal level.

Royal Life Guards. Photo by Nick Karvounis on Unsplash

None of these moves has been very controversial. They are backed up by almost all the parliamentary parties and the public. But the Social Democratic administration has also scheduled a referendum on the country’s opt-out from the European Union’s defense program, and this is more problematic. Denmark has rejected four areas of EU collaboration: defense, justice, the euro, and EU citizenship. Danish sentiment for EU membership was conditional upon maintaining this measure of independence. 

What defense collaboration?

The opt-out means that Denmark doesn’t participate in EU defense operations and related aspects of EU foreign policy and security policy. But there has never been an EU army. Any decision on a joint military operation requires unanimous approval, and the individual nations can decide whether to send troops. The opt-out hasn’t received much attention since the Edinburgh Agreement in 1993, and the referendum is controversial for a few reasons.

It is of course opposed by factions that have been against EU membership all along. It also appears to be a hasty reaction to a particular event—Russia’s aggression—rather than a thorough consideration of Denmark’s role in the EU in general. And there is also much uncertainty about what European defense collaboration would entail in concrete terms.

Can Europe count on NATO?

Since World War II, Europe’s defense has been provided by NATO and the United States. Denmark was a founding member of NATO and a loyal follower of US-led military campaigns in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere. The EU’s collective military does not seem to offer anything beyond NATO’s capabilities. But when Trump trash-talked NATO, some European leaders spoke of Europe’s needing to end its military dependence on the US. Biden has reasserted the US commitment to European security, and NATO has revived since the attack on Ukraine. But there’s no guarantee after the 2024 American election.

The initial opinion poll (DK) on the referendum showed 38 percent in favor of ending the opt-out, 23 percent opposed, and 32 percent undecided. A large majority of Parliament supports it. But the opposition within the administration’s own governing coalition has objected to the formulation of the referendum question (DK), which reads “Do you vote yes or no on whether Denmark can participate in European collaboration on security and defense?”

Voter manipulation

Peter Hvelplund, chair of the Red-Green Party’s parliamentary group, says the phrasing is misleading and “direct cheating.” He prefers that the issue is formulated thus: “Do you want to abandon the defense opt-out?” The new leader of the Danish People’s Party, Morten Messerschmidt, is also convinced that the formulation was intended to frame the issue to favor passage.

The utopian solution

This dissent was no surprise since the platform of the Red-Green Party, whose members still include some diehards from the old DKP (Danmarks Kommunistiske Parti), calls for Denmark to withdraw from NATO (DK) and disband the military. The steering committee’s re-affirmation of this position as recently as March 6 made it difficult for the party chair, Mai Willadsen, to persuade the media (DK) that the party didn’t really want to leave NATO just yet but rather only when conditions in the world make the desertion more practical. 

In early February, during the Russian build-up on the Ukrainian border, the administration announced that it was opening discussions on allowing US troops and military equipment to be stationed in Denmark, as they are in several other NATO countries. The Red-Green Party and the Socialist People’s Party, on whose support the administration also depends, oppose this development (DK) as well. If this bickering is all too predictable, you can watch Danish politicians contending with nothing less than the US, Russia, and China all at once by tuning in to the new season of the Danish Broadcasting Corporation’s dramatic series Borgen.

Summer news roundup: Mermaid cage fight

The New York Times reports that the estate of Edvard Eriksen, the sculptor who created the famous Little Mermaid that sits on her haunches in Langelinie Harbor – one of Copenhagen's biggest tourist draws – is suing the village of Asaa in northern Jutland for displaying another version of the Hans Christian Andersen figure. The heirs of the original sculptor not only demand compensation but insist that the “copy” be destroyed.

The original scuplture was a gift to the city of Copenhagen in 1913 from Carlsberg Brewery founder Carl Jacobsen. The sculptors' heirs have often sued artists over rights to the mermaid image, with some success, and the copyright expires in 2029. The Asaa Mermaid sculptor, Palle Mørk, denied deliberate appropriation. His mermaid is made of granite, whereas the Copenhagen version is made of bronze, and is chubbier. "I didn't think we destroyed art works in Denmark," said Mørk. "That's something the Taliban do." 

New Right chair promoting public-sector layoffs. Photo: Søren Bidstrup.

So sue me too!
Now Mermaid No. 3 is stealing attention. The libertarian Nye Borgerlige (New Right) party launched its biggest policy campaign, featuring cuts in taxes and social services (DK). It succeeded in positioning itself as not only the most anti-tax and most anti-immigration party but also the one with the hottest party leader, Pernille Vermund, shown above. She's "ready with a drastic plan," says the ad, "Will make big changes to Denmark." The main beneficiary of the campaign may be the Danish People’s Party, which had been losing voters to the New Right but now stands to reclaim some who didn't realize how much the party wants to reduce social welfare.

Combatting EU bureaucracy

The Danish People’s Party can use a boost because Morten Messerschmidt, its vice chair and “crown prince,” has been given a conditional six-month prison sentence for swindling EU funds (DK). The money had been intended for a conference in Skagen, Denmark, in 2015 on European issues involving MELD, an international (Euroskeptical) conservative confederation, but the conference apparently consisted only of the party’s usual summer meetings. The charges also included falsifying EU documents. Messerschmidt is known as a sharp debater, but his party colleagues' testimony at the extraordinary trial gave no support for his position. He will appeal the sentence.

Nursing a grudge

The government pronounced sentence on the two-month nurses’ strike (DK). With no progress in negotiations, it intervened and ordered the nurses back to work, causing some to doubt the continuing efficacy of the "Danish model" of labor relations. The hospitals were accumulating about two years of backlogs in elective surgery, and the nurses had exhausted their strike funds. The union never gained much public support for an additional wage increase. Perhaps they thought they would be rewarded for their heroic efforts during the pandemic, but people apparently had their enough of their own pandemic problems to worry about.

Coronavirus DK: The facemask debate continues

The number of infections in Denmark has been rising steadily for three or four weeks, and more and more governments around the world are requiring that people wear masks in public. Denmark still doesn’t require them except in special situations where people might have been exposed, but some politicians and researchers are beginning to speak of a general requirement. Michael Bang Petersen, Professor of Political Science at Aarhus University, says that masks could be the next step in the management of the pandemic. 

A matter of time
Bang Petersen has studied Danes' behavior, opinions and feelings during the coronavirus crisis and believes the authorities should prepare people for wearing masks (DK). “There is now a relatively broad consensus in other places that masks work,” says Bang Petersen. “I would therefore expect that there would be strong political pressure to recommend masks as a first layer of protection if there is a second wave.”

Masks are required on roller coasters. Photo: Mads Claus Rasmussen © Scanpix.

The EU has recently recommended that people wear masks on trains and in railway stations. Denmark’s Red-Green Party proposed that masks be required on public transport (DK). “There is a group of citizens who are actually excluded from using public transportation [because of the risk of infection],” says Peter Hvelplund, the party’s health spokesperson, “and therefore the Health Minister and Minister of Transport must find a solution.”

Not a second wave
Most of the parties are in favor of a recommendation to wear masks but do not believe it is necessary to make them mandatory while the infection rate remains low. “Masks are an option, but there is of course a tradeoff with the inconvenience of wearing them all the time,” says Stinus Lindgreen of the Social Liberal Party. 

Søren Brostrøm, the head of the Health Authority, says that at present there is no value in requiring masks (DK) in order to reduce infections. “We are following the figures closely across the country and locally in order to see whether we should use the tools we have in our toolbox,” says Brostrøm. “We don’t have anything against masks in principle. . . . We are ready if the situation requires it.” But he describes the latest rise in cases as a “flare-up” rather than the beginning of a second wave. 

Use the app
More than 820,000 people have now downloaded the contact-tracing app, Smittestop. But only 207 have registered having the infection. That is far from enough (DK), says Thomas Benfield, Professor of Infectious Disease Medicine at Hvidovre Hospital. “We should register four or five times as many before it becomes optimal.” The app did not become available until after the number of cases had already been reduced greatly. The delay in the rollout occurred because of concerns about privacy.

Coronavirus DK: Reversals in both Lockdown-gate and EU deal

On Saturday another piece of news came out about Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s decision to implement a strict lockdown (DK). As explained yesterday, Frederiksen said that the policy had been determined on the basis of “recommendation of the authorities.” But a recently discovered email from her closest healthcare advisor, Søren Brostrøm, had actually advised against closing the schools and day care centers. Frederiksen faces renewed criticism and questions about the specifics of these “recommendations.”

Kåre Mølbak at a coronavirus press conference. Photo: Niels Christian Vilmann, Ritzau Scanpix.

Now Kåre Mølbak, the director of Statens Serum Institut (SSI), the agency responsible for preparedness against infectious diseases, says in an email to the daily Politiken (DK, paywall) that he supported the administration’s decision. Mølbak was also one of the administration’s closest advisors during the worst period of the epidemic and appeared with Frederiksen and Brostrøm in several press conferences.

An “authority” comes forth
“For me it was essential that the government was prepared to maintain the comprehensive effort that was presented to me on March 11 until after Easter,” wrote Mølbak. “According to SSI’s assessment, this long-term perspective was necessary in order to bring the epidemic under control.”

In his March 11 email, Brostrøm had stated that he had “discussed” his conclusion with Mølbak, but Mølbak now says that at the time he did not share Brostrøm’s concerns about a lockdown. So it appears that Frederiksen has acquired at least one “authority” for her policy and may therefore escape the insinuations of dishonesty and deceit from the opposition parties that became more pointed after the disclosure of Brostrøm’s email.

Don’t celebrate yet, prime ministers
The historic agreement that European Union leaders recently reached on the next seven-year budget and emergency pandemic aid for southern Europe is now in doubt. The deal must be approved by the European Parliament, and at present, a large majority of the Parliament is against it. They voted 465-150 for a provisional resolution to reject the budget (DK).

They have several reservations. According to Manfred Weber, the chair of the Christian Conservative group, the Parliament’s largest bloc, more money in the budget should be directed toward research, healthcare and the EU’s outer borders. Along with other factions, Weber also insists that the disbursements to member states be contingent on adherence to the “European spirit,” that is, to democratic principles. 

No money for autocrats
“It is completely clear for us socialists,” said Iratxe Garcia Perez of the Social Democratic group, “that not a single euro should go to the governments that do not fully respect the rule of law and the fundamental values of the Union.” These are allusions to the infringement of freedom of the press and judicial independence in Hungary and similar tendencies in Poland. Those two countries succeeded avoiding immediate sanctions that affect their receipt of EU funds.

The resolution isn’t binding. The final vote is not scheduled to take place until the end of September.

Editorial note
You may have noticed that the news about the epidemic in Denmark has become less dramatic in recent weeks as the spread of infections remains under control despite the gradual relaxation of lockdown restrictions. There is no longer much need for these updates on a daily basis, so from now on, they will appear less frequently and may treat other topics besides the coronavirus. If there is a second wave that causes great disruption again, as is happening now in some locales, they can resume. Stay tuned, and thanks for reading.

Coronavirus DK: EU recovery package – the ugly sides

On the day after the EU agreement, the more critical analyses appeared. Denmark’s annual contribution to the EU for the relief package and the budget in the coming 7-year period will rise from DKK 19.7 billion ($3 billion) to DKK 24.2 billion ($3.7 billion). PM Mette Frederiksen said it was necessary because of the coronavirus crisis and Brexit. Was the deal worthwhile for Denmark? And for the EU?

Macron, Merkel and others approve the deal. Photo: John Thys/Pool © Scanpix.

Strategy of “miserliness”
Columnist Lars Trier Mogensen emphasizes Frederiksen’s role in the Frugal Four as negotiating for the least possible expense for Denmark (DK). That is, of avoiding joint debt and then minimizing the amount when it couldn’t be avoided. The position goes against social democratic values of generosity and solidarity with less fortunate partners that Frederiksen’s party advocates on the domestic front. It resembles the position of the preceding right-wing government that the Danish Social Democrats criticized, as well as Germany’s earlier insistence on austerity for Greece after the financial crisis. 

But domestic politics trumps international collaboration. That is the perpetual problem and paradox of the EU. The state leaders’ own constituencies reward them not for giving priority to the common good but for being selfish and cheap. The coronavirus crisis has strengthened EU skepticism as some countries experienced catastrophes in their healthcare systems and others closed borders to protect themselves from the spread of the pandemic. 

Frederiksen and her allies succeeded in reducing the amount of aid that the other countries wanted to give southern Europe, and she succeeded in portraying herself as standing up to demands from EU bureaucrats. She appealed to the EU skeptics in the Danish People’s Party, from which the Social Democrats have taken voters recently because of their stricter policies on immigration and refugees. It is a policy of isolationism and “Denmark first,” says Trier Mogensen, and the overall result is that the EU will be weaker because it will take longer for Italy and Spain to recover from the crisis. 

Capitulation to authoritarianism
Marlene Wind, Professor of Political Science and leader of the Center for European Politics at the University of Copenhagen, places a different emphasis on the compromise. She sees the EU’s leaders’ relinquishment of the requirements for democratic principles and institutions in Hungary and Poland as a betrayal of the Union’s founding principles (DK). The two countries threatened to veto the recovery package if their autocratic tendencies were subject to immediate sanctions and succeeded in obtaining a more complicated review process. Hungary’s emergency law, for example, allows PM Viktor Orban to circumvent parliament and issue decrees, and it has not been discontinued in June as planned. . 

The agreement could thus be celebrated by both those who favored a strengthened union and those who were critical of it. The lesson for Wind, as for Trier Mogensen, is that money is more important than principles. The deal means that the EU will no longer be able to criticize other countries for undemocratic practices and violations of human rights. 

“What is it actually that we agree on, if not democracy?” asks Wind. “Putin and Erdogan and the Chinese will laugh about our autocrats when we criticize them: ’You can’t tell us that judges can’t be jailed and the press can’t be censored when you can’t control your own members.’”

Coronavirus DK: Denmark approves EU relief grants

Very early Tuesday morning the heads of state in the European Union reached a historic agreement on a coronavirus recovery package (DK). The deal consists of EUR 750 billion ($860 billion) in loans and grants to offset the economic damage caused by the pandemic. It was settled after four days of sometimes intense negotiations. The difficulty was owing mainly to the objection of the “frugal four” nations – which included Denmark – to providing grants as well as loans to the hardest-hit countries.

Three of the Frugal Four – PMs Stefan Löfven (Sweden), Sebastian Kurz (Austria), and Mette Frederiksen. Photo: John Thys/Pool © Scanpix.

This is the first time that the EU will issue and be liable for bonds jointly. That is, the first time that the Union has taken joint responsibility for helping individual countries without obligation. During the financial crisis, the Union provided loans to Greece under strict conditions and sent inspectors to conduct investigations on their implementation. In this case, there are also conditions on reforms attached to the grants, but they will not be enforced by external monitoring.

The inevitable compromise
The 23 other countries wanted to use EUR 500 billion for grants, and the four holdouts countered with an offer of EUR 350 billion. The latter were criticized, particularly by French President Emmanuel Macron, for putting the entire European project in danger. The leaders finally reached a compromise of EUR 390 billion along with rebates on the annual contributions of the frugal four.

Denmark’s rebate in the new budget will increase from DKK 1 billion ($150 million) to DKK 2.7 billion ($415 billion). Altogether Denmark’s contribution during the coming budget period will increase, partly because the departure of the UK from the Union raises the expenses for the remaining countries. Denmark receives a rebate because it is a net payor to the budget, meaning that it contributes more than it receives in subsidies.

About the rebate, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said, “It indicates that you can fight for both Danish and European interests at the same time. . . . Altogether it is a really, really good agreement for Europe and a really, really good agreement for Denmark.”

Climate and democracy in play
Frederiksen said that it was also in Denmark’s interest (DK) that the southern European countries can recover from the coronavirus crisis. She also commended the increased emphasis on climate and research in the new budget. Another main sticking point was a requirement that the EU's annual disbursements be contingent on countries’ adherence to democratic principles and the rule of law. This was directed particularly at Poland and Hungary, which threatened to veto the relief package and succeeded in forcing a compromise on the measure that weakened the review process.

The fatigued officials were relieved to be able to bump elbows after the last marathon session. "I can’t remember the last time I have been awake for two nights in a row, but it was necessary,” said Frederiksen. “[We] toast not with champagne, but with juice.”

Coronavirus DK: Danes most satisfied with pandemic response

As reported by the Copenhagen Post, in a survey of 21 European countries, Denmark ranked the highest in satisfaction with the government’s management of the coronavirus crisis. The survey, entitled “Uncertainty/EU/Hope: Public Opinion in Times of COVID-19,” was commissioned by the European Parliament. It took place in the week ending May 1 and had more than 21,000 respondents.

Some 85 percent of Danes said they were satisfied with the government’s response to the epidemic. Ireland showed the same level, while Spain, Poland and France registered the least satisfaction. The survey covered many parameters. Denmark also recorded the lowest concerns about unemployment (8 percent) and loss of income (14 percent). Spain, Hungary and Greece had the worst results in these categories.

Consistent with earlier economic findings

The results are similar to those from a Eurofound poll conducted earlier in the crisis. That poll indicated that Denmark had the lowest level of job losses in the EU, 9.5 percent versus an average of 28.5 percent in the EU. It also showed that Denmark had the fewest people struggling financially (6.8 percent) and behind on rent or mortgage payments (2.3 percent). Danes also registered the highest level of well-being and life satisfaction, along with trust in the national government.

Survey results for Europe

Here are some of the other main findings from the European Parliament survey (averages for the 21 EU countries as a whole, weighted according to population):

• 50 percent say “Uncertainty” describes their general emotional mood; 41 percent say Hope; the other emotions cited most often were Helplessness (29 percent), Frustration (27 percent), Fear (22 percent), and Confidence (21 percent).
• 58 percent report financial difficulty.
• 53 percent say the health benefits of restrictions outweigh the economic damage.
• 70 percent communicate more often with family and friends.
• 40 percent help others with groceries and other errands; 26 percent receive help from others.
• 57 percent feel dissatisfaction with the solidarity shown among EU member states
• 52 percent are dissatisfied with the measures taken by the EU in response to the crisis.
• 69 percent want the EU to have greater powers to deal with crises like the pandemic.
• 56 percent are satisfied with their national government’s response.
• 41 percent say scientists are the most trusted source of information, vs. 34 percent for national health authorities and 32 percent for the WHO.
• 58 percent say that lockdown restrictions on individual freedoms were justified, while 28 percent were opposed to them.
• 51 percent approved of public authorities using mobile phone apps to monitor the pandemic, while 39 percent were opposed.

The 83-page survey contains detailed results broken down by individual country as well as by other parameters such as age, gender and level of education.

Support for a bigger EU?

The survey concludes by underscoring the dissatisfaction with solidarity among EU member states and a desire for the EU to have greater competencies for dealing with such crises. Its release comes at a time when most EU member states are calling for emergency grants to be made to the countries suffering the worst from the pandemic crisis, while Denmark and three other northern European countries are resisting the measure and favor loans instead of grants.

(Coronavirus DK will take a few days off and return on Sunday.)

Coronavirus DK: Tourists, start your engines

Either because of pressure from the opposition parties and the private sector or the steadily declining number of infections, or both, the Danish government is relaxing some of its last lockdown restrictions ahead of schedule. As noted yesterday, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s Social Democratic administration lifted the midnight curfew for large parties in restaurants and rented premises. 

On Friday it announced that is would ease certain aspects of its travel restrictions. On Monday, June 15, the borders will open for tourists from three countries – Germany, Norway and Iceland. Previously, they could not stay overnight in Copenhagen /DK), where the coronavirus infections have been concentrated. The tourist industry had been especially critical of the exception, partly because the capital is the single biggest draw for foreign visitors. Now tourists may stay there as well, provided they book a reservation for at least six days, as stipulated earlier. 

When asked whether the previous decision had been wrong, Justice Minister Nick Hækkerup replied, “When we made it, the circumstances were that we would proceed carefully and make sure that the infections don’t lead to an outbreak again. But we must also listen to the criticism that arises and the developments in the world around us.”

Bright lights, big cities

A restriction on Danes’ travel abroad was also lifted. Previously, people were urged to confine their summer travel to the three countries listed above and also to avoid cities with a population over 750,000. That category consists of five German cities, including Berlin and Munich. There are none of that size in the two other countries. Danes may now visit these cities (DK). The policy was changed to make it consistent with the foreign tourists’ opportunity to stay in Copenhagen. 

“I can understand that this creates uncertainty,” said Erik Brøgger Rasmussen of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “But the coronavirus is uncertain, and everything changes from day to day.” 

Germany jumps the gun

According to reports from the border, German police had already stopped checking cars (DK) entering from Denmark on Friday, three days ahead of the planned date. Tourists crossing the border into Denmark from the three countries will be invited to take a test for the virus, but the test is not mandatory. 

The government is also working on a plan to allow Danes to travel to additional countries (DK) before the end of the summer. It intends to prepare a “model for travel advisories” that will not endanger Denmark’s progress in controlling the virus. Jeppe Kofod, Minister of Foreign Affairs could not say whether specific countries or dates are being considered or when an announcement on the change can be expected.

North Sea beaches poised for friendly invasion

Tourists will flood into Denmark on Monday (DK), the day the border reopens. “It will be a fantastic, insane day,” said Hanne Thyssen, director of Danibo Summerhouse Rentals. Some 14,000 summerhouse reservations have been made for the first week, 91 percent of them in Jutland. Guests normally arrive gradually from Friday to Sunday for a week’s stay, but because of the delay in the border opening, Thyssen expects to see guests arriving at 400 summerhouses on the island of Fanø in southern Jutland on Monday. 

Many small businesses as well as the municipalities in southern Jutland are eagerly awaiting the return of German tourists, many of them regular visitors who have been forced to reschedule their stays. Although the sudden influx of tourists will put pressure on rental offices on Monday, it will be far below the normal level of 30,000 summerhouses that are occupied at the high season in mid-July. 

Coronavirus DK: A union divided

Last week Germany and France reached an agreement on a relief package for European Union regions and industries (DK) that have suffered most during the coronavirus pandemic. The funding would take the form of a loan for EUR 5 billion that all 27 EU member states would be liable for. It is the first time that Germany has gone along with a proposal for some form of mutualized debt. France had wanted an even larger aid package. Italy and Spain are the countries that have been worst hit by the virus.

North vs. South redux

The measure must be approved by all 27 member states, however, and Denmark is one of a group of four northern European countries that opposes the program. The other countries in the so-called “frugal four” are the Netherlands, Finland and Austria. The group is insisting that the aid take the form of loans instead of grants and that member state contributions remain at 1 percent of GDP. Proponents of the plan say that it is necessary in order to hold the EU together. The EU Commission will present a budget that incorporates the recovery package as long-term debt on May 27. 

The EU has a history of reluctantly reaching compromises in order to keep the Union intact. This project would represent a momentous step toward a fiscal union that the wealthier member states have always opposed. In the coming negotiations, for the first time the northern European countries will be on the other side of the debate from Germany, Europe’s largest economy. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has expressed her opposition (DK) to the plan since it was first proposed by the EU finance ministers last month.

Breakdown of party alignment

The two largest Danish opposition parties support the Social Democratic administration’s rejection of a grant and joint EU debt. “The idea of shared debt in the EU is just as crazy as if you should share a mortgage loan with your neighbor regardless of how they maintained their property,” said Morten Messerschmidt of the Danish People’s Party. On the other hand, the Social Liberal Party, which supports the Frederiksen administration, favors the proposal partly because it will benefit the Danish private sector, which depends on exports. 

Frederiksen, who has recently been criticized for locking down Denmark without a clear recommendation from the Health Authority and for being too slow to reopen the Danish economy, thus faces a debate over the proposal among her own supporters in Denmark besides negotiations with the most powerful European countries.

Tourism in pandemic times

Several European countries are also working on a plan to allow cross-border travel (DK) to resume and restart the tourism industry. Germany has recently reopened its borders and has invited Denmark to do the same. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas has proposed travel guidelines and quarantine rules to be implemented when the tourist season begins next month. Maas held a video meeting with nine other countries to discuss the practical details. 

Others are skeptical that the southern European countries will be ready to allow tourists in so soon. Conditions vary greatly from country to country. Spain has only recently begun to relax its lockdown restrictions. On the other hand, Greece has already reopened tourist resorts. Under pressure from opposition parties, Frederiksen has promised to announce a decision this week on reopening the Danish borders. Denmark’s rural economies and summer house owners are anxious not to miss the approaching rental season and the usual influx of German tourists.

Coronavirus DK: Border skirmish - the next front

Yesterday, the EU Commission presented a tourism package (DK) that is intended to rescue the summer tourist season in Europe. Germany had just announced that it will open its borders tomorrow, and Margrethe Vestager, the European Commissioner for Competition and Danish Social Liberal politician, urged other member states to follow suit. The Danish government has said that it will not consider reopening the borders until after June 1. When asked whether that was too late, Vestager responded, “Both service and production businesses need to move across borders to a greater extent,” adding that all the necessary precautions must be taken.

The package is set of recommendations and guidelines for the member states. For example, people should not travel if they are sick; passengers should check in online and avoid lines at the airport; airlines should not serve food on board; they should take fewer passengers; unrelated passengers should not sit close together; hotels and camping grounds should follow strict hygiene policies. In the first phase, the EU recommends that countries with similar levels of infection (DK) open their borders to each other, for example Denmark and Greece, where the epidemic is under control. The entire Schengen region should not open until later.

Digital travel solutions

The Commission will also develop an interactive map that shows the status of the epidemic in various regions and will present guidelines that will allow the “corona apps” from each country to function in the other member states. The EU has no authority to determine the policies of member states, however. Tourism represents 10 percent of the EU’s economy, and 27 million jobs, directly or indirectly, depend on it, mostly in southern Europe. It represents 8 percent of the Danish economy.

The pandemic has of course been a disaster for countries with a large tourism industry (DK). The Cannes Film Festival should be taking place at the moment, for example, but the many hotels in the region are empty. Italy only last week relaxed restrictions for its own citizens, who must present documentation if they want to travel between regions. Spain, which is also heavily dependent on tourism, is still in the early stages of reopening. Airlines, whose business has plummeted during the crisis, have canceled many flights and passengers are demanding refunds. The airlines have asked for permission to issue credits toward future flights instead, but the Commission has rejected the request.

Pressure from the right

A majority of the Danish parliamentary parties is reportedly in favor of at least a partial opening (DK), for example for German and Norwegian tourists or for people who rent summer houses. At Parliament’s latest question session, representatives of three right-wing opposition parties pressed the government (DK) to follow Germany’s initiative. Danish Justice Minister Nick Hækkerup, however, maintained that Denmark is not ready to put the positive developments in controlling the coronavirus at risk, noting that the epidemic entered the country with skiers returning from Austria and Italy in February. It costs Denmark DKK 107 million ($15 million) for every day that the borders are closed, said Ulla Tørnæs from the Liberal Party. 

Hækkerup answered that the losses could be even greater if the borders are opened too soon and the epidemic flares up again. He was open to the possibility of allowing foreigners who already have a rental contract to enter the country, but the session was frustrating for parties on both sides of the debate. “I must confess that I have not become much wiser from this answer,” said Tørnæs after another testy exchange. Not all parties are in favor of an immediate relaxation of border restrictions. The Red-Green Party, for example, warns that the country shouldn’t drop its precautions simply because of the positive trend in limiting infections. 

Coronavirus DK: Maintaining solidarity across age groups and EU

Because of the many gatherings that I reported on yesterday, the Danish Police have identified several areas as “hotspots” that people should avoid (DK). They are locations by the waterfront and other recreational areas where people often congregate in the good weather, and a few have been designated in all the major cities. The police advise people to find less popular places to take the sun and help reduce the risk of spreading the corona virus. They are posting notices and will be stationed in the areas to break up groups of more than 10 people and issue fines if people don’t comply.

The administration and coronavirus.dk have tweeted an animated message (DK) to the same effect intended for young people. It reminds them that, although they may be healthy and symptom-free, they may be carrying the virus, which can spread when they socialize and cultivate the famous Danish hygge (“coziness” or relaxed conviviality). They could infect the elderly and people with chronic illnesses, who can die from it. The hashtag “#sammenhverforsig” has become one of the crisis management team’s slogans. It can be translated as “together separately”; that is, show solidarity by keeping a distance to others – a sort of the pandemic variation on the Dumas’s three muskateers’ “All for one and one for all.”

“All for one” on EU corona bonds?

Meanwhile, at an online meeting on Thursday, the leaders of the European Union member states could not agree (DK) on the terms of an aid package for countries hurt by the pandemic. They have approved a package of DKK 4,000 billion (about $570 billion) that is intended to help employees, businesses and countries that have been hurt the worst by pandemic. But some of the southern European countries also want the EU to assume joint liability for debt, and some of the northern countries, including Denmark, are against that. Denmark’s position is that the contributions from the individual countries should be maintained at 1 percent of the country’s GDP and that it should be possible to help the hardest-hit countries within the framework of the current budget.

Margrethe Vestager, the European Minister for Competition and former Danish cabinet minister, earlier in the week advocated the creation of shared European debt (DK), so-called corona bonds. She argued that, while during the financial crisis some countries suffered because their banks were ill-prepared, in this case the pandemic is no one’s fault. If the countries with stronger economies support the bonds, the interest rate will be lower. French President Emmanuel Macron has also been arguing recently that mutualized debt is necessary in order keep the EU together and if the member states do not show solidarity, it will further the populistic elements that have gained a large following in recent years and that have divided them. Danish Finance Minister Nicolai Wammen is skeptical about this step, which has been debated for years, warning that shared debt could weaken the individual countries’ incentive to maintain sound finances.

Extra credit in biology

The tabloid B.T. reports an unintended consequence of one form of corona virus workaround that occurred among eighth-grade students of Rismølle School in Randers, Jutland. After finishing an online class at 9:45 a.m., their teacher forgot to turn off the computer and the students could hear the sounds of sexual intercourse (DK) in the school’s “online universe.” The principal sent a message to parents apologizing for the incident and assuring them that the part of the transmission in question consisted only of audio, that is, not livestreaming video. “But of course that is also serious,” the message concluded. Whether the teacher was involved in the offensive activity was not disclosed. Like everything else, hygge has its limits.

Coronavirus in Denmark: Kindergartners appointed the avant garde

Mette pulls the trigger, or rolls the dice, or whatever metaphor you like – Denmark looks to become, along with Austria, one of the first Western countries to emerge from the lockdown. Gradually, as promised.

On Monday evening, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced a plan to reopen (DK) the country for normal activities. The announcement came a full week before the end of the current lockdown period, which extends until after Easter. 

The first phase will be limited and will take place only on the condition that “everyone, everyone!” – said Frederiksen for emphasis – continues to follow the authorities’ recommendations on social distancing and other restrictions. The plan calls for a reopening of nurseries, day-care centers and schools up to the fifth grade on April 15 in order to allow parents to resume working. The schools will follow strict rules on cleaning and hygiene, the kids will be outside as much as possible, and adults will keep a greater than normal distance to them. The upper grades and other educational institutions will remain closed. Elementary school graduation exams for ninth graders are canceled.

The second important change is that employees in the private sector may begin returning to work. This will take place according to agreements with employees’ and employers’ associations and will also require upon more stringent health conditions than normal. People are still encouraged to remain home if they can. Public employees in non-essential functions will remain home.

Roskilde Festival canceled

The other restrictions remain in place, and the periods in which they apply have been extended. Large gatherings, such as music festivals, are banned through the month of August. The other closures are extended until May 10: public institutions, shopping centers, theaters, the national borders and gatherings of more than 10 people. If this first phase can proceed successfully, the administration will afterward consider opening restaurants and small businesses such as hairdressers. 

Frederiksen stressed that it was not administration’s strategy to pursue herd immunity. There had been some speculation that a reopening implied an attempt to build up herd immunity, but Kåre Mølbak, the head of Statens Serum Institut, clarified the issue by explaining that the objective is to control and delay the spread (DK) of the virus so that the healthcare system is not overwhelmed.

Day-care staff in hazmat suits?

Not surprisingly, this announcement caused some concern among teachers (DK) and day-care staff. They note that small children have trouble remembering to wipe their noses and sneeze into their sleeve, aside from keeping a distance to others. Staff want to get clear guidelines about how many kids can be close to one another, for example, and what symptoms will dictate whether they need to be sent home. Kåre Mølbak said he was not worried about the risk to children, since only around 1.8 percent of them test positive. The task of preparing for the reopening is up to the local institutions, and the chairman of the association of municipalities believes that the plan is feasible. 

Frederiksen received some criticism from the other political parties (DK). They were informed of the plan a few hours before the press conference but were not consulted about the specifics, as Jakob Ellemann-Jensen, the leader of the Liberal Party, believes they should have been. Kristian Thulesen Dahl of the Danish People’s Party thinks it might have been more viable for the older students, who are better able to keep a distance from one another, to take their exams. Jens Veirum, a head pediatrician at Aarhus University Hospital, defended the decision by saying that parents of young children are usually young and healthy and can withstand being infected.

What happened to Europe’s precautionary principle?

I find the announcement, which occurred around  the same time as a report that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been placed in intensive care, surprising and probably premature. I had understood the administration’s preceding announcement to mean that after April 13, it would consider options for reopening the country, not necessarily begin them immediately afterward. The plan for reopening will be encouraging for some people, but the situation changes so rapidly, with new findings about protection and possible treatments coming daily, that IMHO, it wouldn’t have hurt to wait a little longer at least before making this kind of announcement.

The main factor that argues for reopening is that the country has vacant capacity in ICUs and expects to maintain a buffer according to the trend in declining infections. But the greatest failing in its policies thus far is that it has not tested extensively. It therefore does not have a complete picture of the actual spread of the virus, and it has not traced the contacts of those with mild symptoms who have been told to self-quarantine. Healthcare officials have said recently that they intend to begin testing cases with mild symptoms as well as healthcare staff and people with severe symptoms, as advised by the WHO, but they have not begun testing more than 5,000 persons per day. I know one person who has had persistent cold symptoms for two weeks and has not been able to get a test.

Stealth infections

One issue that I don’t understand well enough to have an opinion on but that seems critical is whether children who don’t become sick can become carriers. Children have greater resistance to the coronavirus than adults, but is it a greater resistance to developing Covid-19 from an infection or a resistance to the infection itself? If they become asymptomatic carriers, they will probably infect their teachers and day-care staff and will certainly infect their parents. And if some of these parents are returning to their workplaces, they are likely to infect others before their symptoms appear. If children are not sent home until they develop symptoms, then at least the youngest will almost certainly have already infected others. This strategy does seem to be inviting infections, and the decisive factor will be how many of them will require intensive care. 

It will be interesting to see the reaction to the announcement on Twitter and Facebook.

Coronavirus in Denmark: Don't get careless

As the situation in Denmark continues to improve, people have the luxury of speculating about what will come next. 

Three of Denmark’s Regions, which manage the public hospitals, report that if the number of Covid-19 patients follow the original forecast from March 13, they wouldn’t have enough nurses in the intensive care units (DK). According to that forecast, the number of cases would peak in the two weeks after Easter. The trend has improved since that forecast, but the Regions have issued a warning that if it rises again, they will lack some 1,300 nurses and will need to train other nurses to work in ICUs. They have begun giving nurses a two-day course in case they are needed. Joachim Hoffmann-Petersen, chairman of the Danish Association for Anesthesiology and Intensive Medicine, says that it is too early to think of opening the country up for normal activities as early as next week, a possibility that Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced last week. It takes four weeks for a patient to go through a recovery cycle – one week from infection to showing symptoms, another week before becoming critically ill, and two weeks on a respirator until the patient is no longer infectious. 

With Denmark’s success in flattening the curve of cases, people have begun to debate how the process of reopening (DK) the country is to take place. The main strategy is control the number of infected persons so that the hospital system can treat them. If the ultimate objective is herd immunity, with more than 60 percent of the population infected and recovered and presumably immune, that is a long process. It will require exposing many people to the virus, and an estimated 2 percent will die. The WHO advises against pursuing herd immunity, instead recommending mass testing and isolation of those testing positive. And there is not yet evidence that those who recover will remain immune, says Astrid IIversen, Professor of Virology and Immunology at Oxford University and an advocate of WHO’S recommendation. If they are not immune, there is nothing to gain from seeking herd immunity.

Bad times make leaders popular

Mette Frederiksen’s approval rating has shot up (DK) during the crisis, almost doubling. In the beginning of March it was 39 percent, and a month later, it is at 79 percent. Voters on both sides of the political spectrum approve of the way she has handled the crisis. Her approval rating among voters from the left-wing parties is at 93 percent and from right-wing voters, 66 percent, while 9 percent of the latter think she is doing a bad job. Observers note that the plan to manage the crisis was agreed upon by all the parliamentary parties and that the increase may be temporary. The bounce is a typical polling phenomenon during a crisis, as can be seen even in countries where the leadership has done a terrible job addressing it. 

On Sunday evening Frederiksen gave an interview (DK) on DR, the country’s public broadcasting corporation. She reiterated the tentative plan to consider reopening the country next week but warned that it was necessary to continue following a strict policy of social distancing in order to be able to do so. She also stressed that the process would be very gradual and that the world after the crisis wouldn’t resemble the one before it. People would not be crowding together at concerts, for example, and schools and businesses might operate with staggered schedules so that fewer people were gathered together.

Minister for Health Magnus Heunicke made a post on Facebook (DK) urging people to stick to the program. Sunday was a warm, sunny day, and many people were out. Heunicke noted that some people have begun to slack off on the restrictions but it will not be possible to phase them out unless everyone cooperates.

Treating the virus like heartburn

Hospitals in Aarhus will begin testing a Japanese medication, camostat mesylate (DK), on Covid-19 patients. A study in Germany showed that it may slow the process of infection in cells, but this will be the first time it is used on a large number of patients. The doctors expect to be able to see whether it has favorable results after three months. It had some effect against SARS in 2003, Danish researchers at Aarhus University Hospital found. Its original purpose was to treat heartburn.

Coronavirus in Denmark: The next steps

The numbers continue to fall (DK) for the third consecutive day in Denmark. They have been almost flat for about a week. It seems almost callous to quote them because they are tiny in comparison with what is happening elsewhere, particularly in the US, where the infections are still accelerating. The most telling figures are the number of hospitalized and ICU patients, says Thea Kølsen Fischer, Head of Research at North Zealand Hospital, because the number of infections and deaths may be influenced by other factors, such as the extent of testing and preexisting conditions. But the figures reported across all these parameters are consistent, and they indicate that the strategy of social distancing and quarantine is working. So that is something that other countries can learn from if they still have doubts.

With this main issue more or less settled, attention is turning to other questions: Do masks protect people from being infected? How many carriers are asymptomatic? Is herd immunity feasible? Will there be a second wave? Can people who recover be reinfected?

Tests, masks and antibodies

In Denmark, the tests appear to be very accurate (DK): the percentage of false negatives is small, around 1 percent. The sample in the test must be taken from the right location, says one researcher. If the virus has moved from the throat to the lungs, a sample from the throat may be negative. If the swab isn’t applied correctly, it may miss an infection. Rigshospital, a large, specialized hospital in Copenhagen, has made a video on how to do it correctly, and the WHO is translating it for use in other countries. 

Researchers are undertaking an experiment to investigate whether masks help (DK) protect against infection. Four researchers from the Greater Copenhagen Region, in cooperation with the Salling Group, which owns several supermarket chains, are giving surgical masks to Salling Group employees. They have recruited 6,000 employees. Half of them will wear the masks when they are outside their homes for thirty days, and the other half is the control group. They will test themselves regularly, and the tests will be analyzed after the thirty-day period. Masks have been found to prevent people who are already infected from spreading the virus, but there is much debate about how effective they are in protecting people who have never been infected.

Blood donors are being tested for antibodies (DK) in order to get an indication of whether the population is developing herd immunity. The estimate of effective herd immunity is around 60 percent, and only a few of those tested had antibodies.

EU collaboration problems revisited

Denmark’s Social Democratic representatives to the EU Parliament point out that, per capita, the largest amount of coronavirus aid is going to Hungary (DK), where the epidemic is rather limited. Italy and Spain, which are suffering the most, receive very little, the fifteenth and sixteenth most. This is because the money was redirected from a source, structural and investment funds, whose the distribution was based on the general standard of living. The funds had also already been distributed. This is a little embarrassing, particularly because the drastic steps that Hungary has recently taken in declaring a state of emergency have virtually suspended the democratic rule of law and drawn criticism from other EU nations. It also says something about the lack of flexibility in the EU. The solution, just as in the US and from all the central banks, will almost certainly be another rescue package. 

Simon Kollerup, Minister of Industry, Business and Finance, has criticized Danish banks (DK) for not giving enough loans to small businesses. He accuses them of not showing social responsibility and solidarity toward more vulnerable businesses. Some have had loan applications rejected, and others have been offered overdraft facilities with an interest rate as high as 18.75 percent. The banking industry organization, Finans Danmark, answered that 90 percent of applications are approved and that it would be irresponsible to grant loans to businesses that are unlikely to survive after a return to normal conditions. 

These are some of the main elements of the Danish aid package, which totals DKK 286 billion ($41 billion, or the equivalent of $2.25 trillion in the US):

• Extension of the deadline for withholding tax and VAT (DKK 165 billion)
• Guarantees for loans to SME and large businesses (DKK 60 billion)
• Temporary compensation for loss of salary
• Temporary compensation for self-employed and freelancers
• Temporary compensation for companies’ fixed expenses
• Unemployment and illness benefits
• Refund to companies for unemployment benefit contributions
• Compensation for cancellation of large events
• Guarantees for SAS
• Increased loan options for students