Coronavirus DK: Disappearing jobs, equipment and ice

Statistics Denmark reports that 87,000 jobs disappeared (DK) in the spring. “That is an insane number,” says Las Olsen, Chief Economist at Danske Bank. “We’ve never seen anything like it before.” It reverses all the employment growth since late 2017. The worst hit sectors are commerce and transport, which together accounted for half of the decline. Next come culture, leisure and other services, which experienced the largest percentage drop. The figures are rather uncertain, however, and actually higher, says Olsen, because people who are receiving wage compensation are not included.

Selective rebound expected
The decline is not as large as when 200,000 lost their jobs during the financial crisis, but it has taken place much more quickly. On the other hand, the recovery should also come faster as businesses and other organizations reopen. Certain industries, such as hospitality and entertainment, will not recover for a couple of years, however, and some people will need to shift to other fields in order to find work, concludes Olsen.

Disappearing PPE
Something else has vanished in large volumes since March – personal protective equipment. The police have registered 29 cases of sanitizer, face masks and gloves being stolen (DK) from hospitals, nursing homes and shops since March, and they treat them very seriously: “We did it especially in the start, because at that point we were in an acute situation where it was possible Denmark would run out of protective equipment,” said Søren Enevoldsen, deputy inspector with the National Investigatory Center. These crimes have received special attention because in April Parliament passed a bill that made the punishment for offenses related to the coronavirus epidemic four times as high as usual.

Mobile supply cabinets are a target for PPE thieves. Photo: (C) DR Nyheder.

This meant that someone who steals, say, DKK 10,000 ($1,500) worth of supplies from a hospital could get the same sentence as someone charged with assault with a knife. The reasoning is that both actions could put someone’s life in danger. At one point, one quarter of nursing home employees were reporting a shortage of PPE. A man who committed theft from a hospital, for example, was sentenced to four months in prison. Few offenders have been sentenced, though, because many of the arrests took place before the increased penalty went into effect. 

Glaciers disappearing, but Greenland will remain
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo came to Copenhagen on Wednesday and assured the nation that the US is ready to fight in the Arctic for the people of Denmark. “We have all been a little bit naïve to watch not only the Russians but also the Chinese interests there become more and more aggressive.” As the glaciers in the Arctic melt, more opportunities for military patrolling as well as trade open up. One month ago, the US opened a new consulate in Nuuk, the capital of Greenland, and made a commitment to invest in the strategically important region.

Pompeo affirmed that Denmark continues to be one of America’s closest allies: “We are two nations that are both robust democracies.” On that topic, he didn't mention his boss’s refusal to say that he would abide by the presidential election results in November. On the positive side, neither did he repeat Trump’s attempt to buy the autonomous territory.

Coronavirus DK: Corona football and free-range pets

On Sunday the number of people hospitalized for Covid-19 rose for the first time in a week. The trend has been steadily downward since April 1. The increase prompted the question of whether Denmark is beginning to see the consequences of the relaxation (DK) of restrictions around two weeks ago. The change is insignificant, says Søren Riis Paludan, Professor of Virology and Immunology at Aarhus University: “People feared that after the reopening the curve would fly up again, but that hasn’t been the case. With the degree of opening we have now, the spread is under control. We should be ready to open further.”

Scientific evidence for safe soccer

A ray of hope for a return of the national pastime has appeared. Researchers at Aarhus University have determined that soccer matches in Superliga (DK), the highest professional league in Denmark, can safely resume. Allan Randrup Thomsen, Professor of Immunology and Microbiology at the University of Copenhagen, concurs: “Football [as the sport is called outside of North America] does not pose a real infection risk.” The Health Authority considers that there is a risk only if people are within two meters of each other for 15 minutes. Using that parameter, the researchers estimated, on the basis of an analysis of 14 Superliga matches, that if one player is infected, the other individual players will be within infection range for an average of only one minute and 28 seconds in a match.

That was welcome news for Claus Thomsen, the head of the Superliga association, which has been working on plans to play under special guidelines that will minimize the danger of infections. If the matches resume, they will take place without spectators in the stadiums. The 88-second figure applies only to matches with one infected player, however. With two of them, players would be exposed to the virus for an average of about three minutes; with three infected players, for four and a half minutes. Another study from Italy and Germany offers a cautionary message. It concludes that elite athletes are subject to an unusually high risk because of their heavy breathing during extreme exertion. Neither study has been peer-reviewed.

No-touch football

Meanwhile, the Danish Football Union, the overall governing body for soccer in Denmark, has prepared a set of “corona rules” (DK) – guidelines that will allow local clubs to play according to the pandemic restrictions. The rules are rather extensive: No more than ten people can practice together, including the coach; players must always keep two meters’ distance from one another; touching the ball only with the feet except by the goalkeeper; liberal use of sanitizer; no use of locker rooms and showers. It will not be the familiar rough-and-tumble contact sport as before.

“It’s better than nothing,” says Tom Helligsøe, the head of the IF Lyseng club. Others think the rules are too strict, for example sanitizing all the balls and other equipment. “How can a ball infect you if you’re not allowed to head it, pick it up or trap it with your body?” asks Jan Busk, the head of the Frederiksberg Alliance, which has 2,000 members. The rules need to approved by the Health Authority before the clubs can resume activities.

No to American pet quarantine

After dogs and cats in the US have been found to be infected with the corona virus, the CDC has issued social distancing rules for pets (DK): Keep cats indoors; keep dogs on a tight leash, at least two meters’ from other dogs as well as humans; limit contact with them. But they aren’t necessary in Denmark, says Randrup Thomsen, who is consulted by journalists about pandemic measures almost daily. There are still no reports that pets have infected people. Nevertheless, if you are in high-risk group, adds Thomsen, you can consider keeping your cat indoors, although that may be difficult for a cat that is used to being out. “But the most important thing is not to let them lick your face. In principle, you should never let them do that because they can infect you with all kinds of diseases.”

Coronavirus DK: Counting the casualties

“April is the cruelest month,” begins T.S. Eliot’s classic modernist poem The Wasteland, which was written only two or three years after the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918-19. This year many would agree, not only because of the loss of lives to Covid-19 but also because of the loss of livelihoods and businesses.

Last week the venerable Arnold Busck bookstore chain closed (DK) all of its 29 stores and filed for bankruptcy. Most of the stores have been closed since mid-March, when the lockdown went into effect. Certain locations were allowed to open under special conditions, but it was not enough to save the business, which has not yet received the payments from the government’s rescue package. In any case, the aid would not have been large enough to save the business, which has suffered losses in the past two years because of problems implementing a new IT system. The chain has been a family business since it was founded in 1896.

Cooling their jets

Also last week, SAS announced that it would lay off up to 40 percent of its workforce in Scandinavia. That is the equivalent of 5,000 full-time positions, including 1,700 in Denmark. The government rescue packages allowed the airline to furlough 90 percent of its workers when the lockdown went into effect, and it has received EUR 275 in emergency credit guarantees from Sweden and Denmark. But now it says that it does not expect the industry to return to pre-pandemic activity levels for years and it needs to adjust its staff accordingly.

In a related story, Denmark’s second-largest airport, Billund Airport in Jutland, is almost empty these days. The airport reports that the number of its passengers in April fell a full 99 percent (DK) from the level in 2019. Managing Director Jan Hessellund, says that its fate depends on when the Ministry of Foreign Affairs eases its travel restrictions. Denmark’s borders are closed and all unnecessary travel is discouraged until May 10, when the next phase of the reopening is to begin. The only flights from Billund at present are to Amsterdam and Romania. Air traffic at Copenhagen-Kastrup Airport is down around 95 percent.

Look on the bright side 

In 2020 the number of traffic accidents (DK) in the month of March was the lowest since 1985, when the Danish Road Directorate began compiling records. They fell from 248 in 2019 to 159, and the number of traffic deaths fell from 14 in 2019 to 9. The decline is doubtless an effect of the lockdown, which caused a reduction in the number of passenger cars on the road, says Marianne Foldberg Steffensen of the Road Directorate.

With the sharp decline in air travel and a 25 percent drop in road traffic, carbon dioxide emissions will fall (DK) by about one-sixth in Denmark during the current lockdown period running until May 10. That is the result of calculations made by Brian Vad Mathiesen, Professor of Energy Planning at Aalborg University, for the Danish Broadcasting Corporation. If energy consumption returns to normal afterward, the reduction for the year would amount to 5 percent of the annual level.

The dark side of the bright side

For Vad Mathiesen, however, the main conclusion to be drawn is that it will be extremely difficult for the country to reach its target of reducing emissions by 70 percent by 2030. It would need to cut emissions by a similar amount every year until then, and it cannot afford to shut down commercial activity to the same degree. Climate Minister Dan Jørgensen agrees that meeting the target will be an enormous challenge and it must be accomplished by innovations in energy production and transport rather than simply by reducing consumption.

Coronavirus DK: Shaming, blaming and complaining

A couple of days ago I reported that Kåre Mølbak of SSI, the agency responsible for preparedness for infectious diseases, scolded teenagers for not following social distancing guidelines. Mølbak cited test statistics showing that the number of infections in that age group had doubled over a few weeks. Since then, Mølbak has been criticized (DK) by representatives of several political parties for shaming a particular segment of the population, for not delivering the statistics in question to the MPs, and for making misleading comparisons between the test results in the two periods. 

The politicians, including Stinus Lindgren, the healthcare spokesperson for the Social Liberal Party, note that the testing policy changed had changed between the two periods that Mølbak cited, with the addition of tests for people with only mild sympoms. So they want to know whether the change in the results was owing to an actual rise in the number of infections or the change in testing. They have requested the statistics but have not received them. The information is relevant for the parties’ negotiations on the next phase of the relaxation of the lockdown because high schools are still closed and the SSI has ranked them in the medium-risk category.

Too easy a target?

Peder Hvelplund of the Red-Green Party also criticizes the practice of mixing healthcare research and policy. Reproving a group of citizens is a political act, and it should be based on adequate documentation of the problem. “It is foolish to shame the young (DK),” said Jakob Mark, the parliamentary group leader for the Socialist People’s Party. “The infection statistics show that the percentage of young people who are infected is declining.” 

It is sometimes unclear whether politicians or journalists are referring to the percentage of infections among those tested or among the total number of infections. Teenagers still represent a very small portion of infected persons, but if they are more likely to be asymptomatic and not develop Covid-19, that does not reduce the risk that they may infect others while they are infected. None of the politicians quoted say that the accusations were unwarranted. On the basis of reports of the gatherings the week before in the Islands Brygge waterfront area as well as my own informal observations, they are generally accurate, with the proviso that the behavior of those in their twenties may not be much different.

Tourism in the plague year

Frank Jensen, the Mayor of Copenhagen, wants to open restaurants and cafes soon (DK) for outdoor service if Denmark is to make a success of the summer tourist season. Jensen has invited the mayors of the country’s six largest cities to a meeting to plan a reopening of the tourism industry. He said that in Copenhagen alone the industry will lose DKK 4.7 billion ($670 million) in revenues in March, April and May. Jensen notes that restaurants must take measures to ensure that social distancing guidelines are followed, for example by using the space in parking lots to keep patrons apart.

Restaurants have been open in Sweden throughout the pandemic. Oslo, which has allowed restaurants to operate without serving alcohol, will lift the ban on alcohol on May 6. That will make Copenhagen the only Scandinavian capital where restaurants are closed and put it at a disadvantage in attracting tourists. On Friday, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said that she expects the next phase of the lockdown exit to proceed on May 10 but did not specify what types of businesses and organizations would be allowed to open.

Coronavirus DK: Jobs, renovation and planning phase 2

The traditional May Day gatherings were canceled and the speeches by left-wing leaders were sent remotely. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen of the Social Democrats held her speech at the Workers Museum in Copehagen and used the occasion to announce the government’s first large employment project (DK). It will spend around DKK 4.5 billion ($650 million) to renovate subsidized housing units. The project will be “fair, economically sensible, and green,” said Frederiksen. It will improve living conditions for renters, provide jobs for people who have lost them during the crisis, and bring the buildings up to environmentally sound standards, for example by replacing old oil furnaces. The initiative is to be seen as signalling a shift in focus from healthcare issues to economic issues as well as a shift to more sustainable infrastructure projects. It will begin before the end of the year.

Frederiksen summed up the measures taken during the crisis to support employees and businesses. Some 150,000 people have received wage compensation and avoided being laid off, and 25,000 businesses have received aid. In the question and answer period after the speech, Frederiksen said that she was concerned about the increase in the reproduction number (R0) to 0.9 since the first phase of the reopening but that she expected the second phase to begin as planned (DK) on May 10. Negotiations with the other parties on the next steps of the exit from lockdown restrictions continue.

Antifa silenced, nursing home residents to get visits

Frederiksen also noted with a smile that the room was very quiet. That was a reference to the traditional May Day gathering last year in Copenhagen’s largest park, when she had been drowned out by protesters from the Autonomist Movement, the local version of Antifa. Before the corona virus outbreak, she had declined to appear at the gathering this year.

Parliament has also reached a broad agreement on an aid package to help nursing home residents (DK) and other elderly people return to more normal conditions. The plan, which will cost DKK 165 million ($24 million), was approved by all the parliamentary parties except for the Liberal Party, which believed it did not go far enough. It is intended to reestablish the standard service level for cleaning and cultural activities and to redress loneliness and anxiety among the elderly who have been isolated, including those with dementia, by promoting volunteer activities, for example. A key element of the plan is setting up outdoor facilities where the elderly can receive visits from their families while minimizing the risk of infection.

Infection-risk rankings from libraries to discos

A new factor in the negotiations that came to light yesterday is a confidential memorandum sent to MPs by SSI, the agency responsible for preparedness against infectious diseases. It contained an extensive list of institutions and organizations according to their risk levels (DK) for Parliament to use in determining the next steps in the reopening of the economy on May 10. In the low-risk category are outdoor eating facilities, libraries, museums and outdoor zoos. In the medium-risk category are higher educational institutions, theaters, restaurants, churches, shopping centers, workplaces where social distancing is possible, and outdoor sports facilities. High-risk locations include middle schools and high schools, bars and concert halls. In the very-high-risk category are boarding schools, fitness centers, nightclubs, and (indoor) visits to nursing homes and hospitals. 

The SSI noted that the ranking was “uncertain and simplistic” and that the organizations selected for reopening should depend on the degree of spread of the virus on May 10 and on the other organizations that are allowed to open at the same time. The decision will be made by the government in consultation with the other political parties, not the SSI or the Health Ministry.