Coronavirus in Denmark: Pushback

In responding to the coronavirus threat, the Social Democratic administration under Mette Frederiksen has taken the position that it is better to do too much than too little. As in the United States, some people are beginning to ask when the emergency measures will end. Others are protesting that certain measure are too drastic.

On Thursday, the government submitted a new emergency bill to Parliament increasing sanctions for certain crimes and making it easier for the police to break up gatherings. The crimes include making fraudulent claims to emergency funds and stealing hand sanitizer. The chairman of the Association of Danish Judges, Mikael Sjöberg, sent a letter (DK) to Justice Minister Nick Hækkerup criticizing some of the measures, such as a prison sentence for theft of hand sanitizer. Besides being extremely harsh, the punishment would be problematic because the cases probably wouldn’t be processed until after the epidemic has passed its peak.

Busted for having neighbors over for coffee?
The bill would reduce the maximum number of people, besides family and cohabitants, allowed to congregate from 10 to 2, and give the police authority to issue fines (DK) for violations. The immediate intention seems to be to prevent the annual tradition of large Easter parties, which often draw family members from across the country. This has drawn a protest from the right-of-center political parties (DK), which believe the limit is too strict, it is not necessary for public health reasons, and it violates a basic freedom of association. 

The same parties, with the addition of the Social Liberals that gives them a parliamentary majority, are now asking for a plan to end the emergency measures (DK). Jakob Ellemann-Jensen, the chairman of the Liberal Party, the largest opposition party, acknowledges that the government has handled the crisis well, but thinks a plan for opening up society again is also necessary. It will make a psychological difference for the population and will give the private sector a sense of security. The Minister of Finance responded by saying that reopening society is conditional on limiting the spread of the virus. 

The Danish Patient Safety Authority, an agency under the Ministry of Health, placed a link on its website for people to report a suspicion of behavior indicating an infection. The step sparked a protest. Health Minister Magnus Heunicke had apparently been unaware of the measure. He stated that the agency had been urged to do whatever it could to prevent the spread of the virus, but it had gone too far. The link was removed. 

What are the results?
But are the measures working? Have they been in effect long enough to draw any conclusions? These are latest figures (DK):

Infected: 2,010
Hospitalized: 430
ICU: 109
Deaths: 52

The number of deaths per day is not rising exponentially. This is the series since the first one on March 11: 1,0,0,2,1,1,1,4,6,3,3,3,7,5,7,8. 

A log chart comparing developments (DK) in various countries shows that Denmark, at 15 days after the first death, is much closer to the pattern in South Korea than Italy or Spain were at the same stage, that is, much flatter. Statens Serum Institut continues to cite its forecast based on the infection rate in Italy, which predicts a peak in the two weeks after Easter that will require all the respirators in the country – some 950. But a spokesperson notes that this forecast does not take into account the mitigating measures implemented in Denmark. The R0 rate used in the forecast is 2.6, and the rate observed in Denmark is 2.1, so the infection curve should be flatter than in those countries. 

To isolate or not to isolate?
So it appears that the measures are working and the Danes should sacrifice their cozy Easter parties this year in order to keep a lid on the spread. Some observers are warning that governments that enact emergency measures may abuse them and exploit them after the emergency passes, as Anne Applebaum does about Hungary, for example. One would also expect that Trump, even though he wants to end social distancing, might try to use the crisis as a pretext for arrogating to himself dictatorial powers. But I don’t see the danger in northern European countries governed by parliamentary coalitions. 

Some of the more sensible and promising proposals that seem to be emerging from researchers, for example the scenario explored by Paul Romer, advocate pulling back from total quarantine to testing much more frequently and quarantining people who are infected rather than everyone, while producing, distributing and using personal protection equipment much more widely. Some kind of compromise like this will probably emerge, but while the horror stories are proliferating in Italy, Spain and now New York City, I don’t see how countries that are still trying to flatten the curve can be too cautious.