Coronavirus DK: Big shifts in trust in government and the US

Two interesting surveys have just been released, and the results in Denmark have implications for an understanding of the situation in the United States.

One is the annual Tryghedsanalyse (DK) (security survey) conducted by a foundation associated with the Tryg insurance group. It gathered data from both before and after the onset of the coronavirus crisis, ending on May 22. It showed, among other things, that 84 percent of Danes surveyed were very or fairly satisfied with the government’s management of the epidemic. That was the highest rating of any European country. Norway and Finland came next. Toward the bottom were Sweden (55 percent), the UK (45 percent) and France (37 percent). Confidence in all public institutions rose, not only the administration and Parliament but also the police, the courts and the EU.

Rising to the occasion

In a column on Altinget.dk, Lisbeth Knudsen (DK), former editor in chief of a major daily, calls this a significant change in recent Danish politics. It begins, “For years we have discussed what would be necessary to turn around the public’s worrying and growing lack of confidence in politicians. . . . We now have the answer: an enormous, comprehensive health care crisis.” The pandemic showed that the government could respond effectively and collaborate constructively with other parties in Parliament, without the usual bickering and personal attacks.

Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen succeeded in presenting a narrative that appealed to the country’s social democratic principle of solidarity at a time when many were more insecure than ever about losing their jobs, partly by emphasizing an obligation to protect those who were most vulnerable to the virus. The crisis has strengthened the Social Democrats’ standing in polls, and it has also forced the opposition to take an approach based more clearly on solutions and new ideas rather than tactical criticism.

Litmus test for the world

The results of the poll show an extreme contrast with Donald Trump’s current record-high disapproval rating and Americans’ growing distrust in government. The pandemic has served as a sort of acid test that throws the strengths and weaknesses of all countries into stark relief. This reflects not only on their leaders but also their institutions, such as the CDC, which bungled the testing at the outset of outbreak, despite all its plans and resources.

Former enemy overtakes Cold War champion

The other survey, which was conducted by the independent research institutes Moos-Bjerre and Userneeds and whose results were released in Weekendavisen (DK, paywall), concerns Denmark’s international security alliances. It has more direct relevance to the US, which has been Denmark’s most important ally throughout the Cold War and after. The poll shows that now only 40 percent of Danes surveyed agree with the statement “The USA is Denmark’s most important ally,” while 54 percent now assign that role to Germany. 

In addition, 65 percent believe that “In the future, Denmark  should give priority to collaboration with the other EU countries over collaboration with the USA.” These are historic shifts, and somewhat surprising, since Germany is no military power and Denmark has often taken a dissenting position in the EU, regarding immigration and shared debt for example.

How much blame does Trump deserve?

One can debate how much the development is owing to Trump and his myopic nationalism, particularly his threats to leave NATO. For a while after Trump’s election, most Danes probably agreed with former Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen that “The USA is Denmark’s most important ally – no matter who is in the White House.” Brexit may also have nudged Denmark closer to its continental European neighbors, and Emmanuel Macron’s tribulations may have left Angela Merkel as the clearest leader of what used to be called “the Free World.” But Trump has undoubtedly soured Danes' perception of the US, even though it remains the only superpower in the West. 

Coronavirus DK: New passport, roller coasters, tweeting praise

Danes can now get a COVID-19 passport (DK) if they have tested negative for the coronavirus in the past seven days. They can use it to travel to countries that require such documentation. As soon as the lab has processed your test and released the results, you can go to sundhed.dk (DK), the website where everyone’s health information is stored, and download the passport, which has a document validation number and can be printed. 

Not all countries will recognize this document, however. Some have special requirements, for example that you use their own official form for test results and have it signed by a doctor. You should find out the regulations in force in any country that you are traveling to or through. You can see them on the Danish embassy’s website for the country in question. You can order a test for the coronavirus at coronaprover.dk (DK), which has an English version.

Masks as passport to fun

But if you want to ride a roller coaster at Djursland Sommerland, an amusement park in mid-Jutland, a COVID-19 passport won’t be enough. You will also need a face mask (DK). Face masks have not been mandatory in Denmark and are seen very rarely outside of hospitals and perhaps nursing homes. Since it opened one month ago, Djursland Sommerland has been able to load its roller coasters only to one-quarter of their capacity. It has now received permission from the government and the Patient Safety Authority to make this experiment and fill up the Dragon King with screaming riders. 

“There is no doubt that it is more fun to stand in line for a ride for only ten minutes instead of an hour,” says Henrik B. Nielsen, the director of the amusement park. All the amusement parks in the country are eligible to take part in the experiment. The masks cost an extra DKK 5 ($1), and they can be used only for one ride. “We don’t earn anything from selling these masks,” says Nielsen. “And the policy has actually been very well received by our guests.”

Him again

Danish media have noticed that the word “Denmark” has popped up in a tweet from a country where face masks are becoming the occasion of a civil war, more precisely, from the White House. Along with Germany, Norway and Sweden, the country was cited because “SCHOOLS ARE OPEN WITH NO PROBLEMS.” Trump threatened to withhold funding for school districts that don’t hold ordinary classes when the school year resumes.

This comes at a time when the US is setting records for new COVID-19 cases and a couple of days after the Orwellian president claimed that the US death rate was “just about THE LOWEST IN THE WORLD!” He may have been too busy playing golf these days to notice that no one has been envying the epidemic conditions in Sweden for some time.

Coronavirus DK: Big race canceled and a letter from the Devil

Today the government’s limit on gatherings was raised (DK) from 50 to 100 people. That was according to an agreement made one month ago. The limit will be increased further to 200 people on August 8. Researchers think lifting the restriction is reasonable since the infection rate in the country has fallen very low, but they warn that the virus is still circulating and the great majority of people are vulnerable to it. They urge people to maintain social distancing and good hand hygiene. By mid-June the police had issued 836 fines for violating the limit.

Wait till next year

The gradual increase of the limit is not enough to save the Copenhagen Half Marathon (DK) this year, though. The arrangers decided that it would not be responsible to unleash 25,000 runners onto the streets of the capital as planned on September 13. They were annoyed that they had not received guidelines from the government on the conditions for holding the race. Almost half the participants are from abroad, and many do not know how they stand in relation to the current rules on travel and lodging, explain the arrangers, Sparta and Dansk Athletics. They considered postponing the event until later in the year, but the uncertainty would remain and the weather could be worse. 

The Copenhagen Half received much attention last year, when it sold out for the first time and the world record was broken (DK). Kenyan Geoffrey Kamworor ran the distance in 58:01. “People in the running scene began to compare us with the Berlin Marathon, the London Marathon and the New York Marathon,” says Dorte Vibjerg, Sparta’s managing director. “And we want to preserve the brand that we have developed.” Earlier in the year, the DHL Relay Race, the world’s largest, with more than 200,000 participants, was also canceled. The CPH Half is scheduled to resume in 2021.

Bribe from the “world’s most dangerous man”

An American living in Denmark got a surprise in her mailbox – a letter with a check for $1,200 (DK) from Donald Trump. “It was confusing, it was incredible, and I was insulted,” said Amy Faircloth, an anthropologist who has lived here for 45 years. The payment was part of the $2 trillion US relief package. Some 160 million citizens are to receive up to $1,200 to help them survive the coronavirus pandemic financially. That includes $2.5 billion for American citizens who live abroad, since they are also liable for income tax in the US. 

But the letter itself was disconcerting. It was presented in Trump’s “grandiloquent” style “as if it were his money that he was giving to me personally,” said Faircloth, and the signature “resembled a seismogram of a very bad earthquake.” In his notoriously crude and narcissistic fashion, Trump had insisted that his name appear on the check. But Faircloth believes that if he thinks he can buy votes that way, he is mistaken: “Actually, I think the problems in the US are that people don’t listen to one another. People are convinced that Donald Trump is a savior, and others think he’s the Devil himself.”

The check arrived just as the contents of the latest book about Trump, by Mary Trump, his niece and a clinical psychologist, are being disclosed. The book may offer the most detailed portrayal yet of Trump’s many pathological traits throughout his life.

Coronavirus DK: Pop the champagne, play ball, and defend Greenland

Maybe Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen was reading the same opinion column (DK) as I was yesterday about relaxing the restriction on freedom of assembly because the government has proposed increasing the number of people allowed at a gathering from ten to 50 on Monday. It sent a letter to the other party leaders as a preparation for negotiations on the measure this weekend. The proposal entails a plan to raise the limit on gatherings (DK) in three phases: to 50 on June 8, to 100 on July 8, and to 200 on August 8, with certain exceptions and qualifications. The government has been under increasing pressure to lift the ban recently as the number of COVID-19 infections and deaths continue to decline during the reopening of the economy.

Stay in your seats

The most important exception to the limitations concerns the first phase. The government will allow up to 500 persons to attend an event if the participants are sitting down, for example at a soccer match in a stadium, at a wedding reception in a restaurant, and at an annual general meeting in a conference center, as well as for summer activities for children. The increase to 200 in August will be allowed only for events that are arranged in accordance with “sector partnership guidelines.” The proposal also contains an extension of the limit on space for individuals in private businesses – that is, of one person per 2 square meters – to apply to all locations where attendees are sitting down. The parties had agreed on a general intention to ease the limit on gatherings at earlier negotiations in May. 

The proposal does not cover indoor sports, fitness centers and swimming halls. Negotiations on those activities, which are subject to one of the last remaining prohibitions, are also supposed to be completed by Monday.

Grudging acknowledgment

The other parties were pleased with the news. “It’s about time that the government made this announcement,” said Kristian Thulesen Dahl of the Danish People’s Party, which has wanted people to be able to hold receptions and large parties, which will also help restaurants recover some of their usual revenues. Sophie Løhde from the Liberal Party wished the announcement had come earlier because uncertainty about the prohibition might have caused some people to cancel their wedding plans. She also wants soccer clubs to receive compensation if they normally attract more than 500 spectators. The government’s supporting parties also think the proposal is sensible, adding that they depend on the continued observance of hygienic recommendations as well as contact tracing and isolation of infection cases.

Not him again

If this weren’t enough good news for Constitution Day, Denmark, via the person of Queen Margrethe, received congratulations from an unexpected quarter (DK), none other than the national leader whose reputation has sunk to the most horrendous depths this week. Trump’s people took the time to make this gesture on a day when the president was busy saying that this was "a great day for [George Floyd]" because the unemployment rate fell for the first time since the pandemic hit. The message also mentions the reopening of the US Consulate in Greenland, a reminder of the country’s security interest in the region and Trump’s offer to buy the autonomous territory last year, which was rejected as “absurd” by PM Frederiksen. 

Commentator Troels Mylenberg notes that especially on Constitution Day such congratulations should have been directed toward the democratically elected Parliament rather than a monarchic figurehead and that they wouldn’t have come at all if Trump wasn’t still interested in expanding US activities in Greenland. The message appears on the US Embassy’s website beside an alert about demonstrations against police brutality and racism that will be held in front of the Embassy this weekend. 

Coronavirus DK: Immortal teenagers, safe shopping and terror

Yesterday Statens Serum Institut (SSI), the agency responsible for preparedness against infectious diseases, reported that the reproduction number of infections rose (DK) during the first week after the country reopened schools and small businesses. The measure, aka R0, indicates how many people one infected person passes the infection on to. If it is below 1.0, the virus is declining in prevalence. Before the reopening, in the period April 10-14, R0 had fallen to 0.6. After the reopening, in the period April 19-24, it rose to 0.9. The spread of the infection is thus not increasing. The rise in R0 had been expected after the relaxation of lockdown restrictions. Hospitalizations, which are a clearer measure of the spread of the virus, have been falling steadily since April 1.

Teenagers will be teenagers 

Kåre Mølbak, the head of SSI, reported that, while the overall spread of the virus remained under control, it has risen sharply among a certain segment of the population. For teenagers, it has doubled (DK) during the month of April. It rose from 4 per 100,000 in weeks 12-14 to 11 per 100,00 in weeks 15-17. The rate is still much lower than that of the elderly. For those over 80, the rate was 47 per 100,000 in the latter period. The information on the spread of the virus was presented to Parliament as they consider whether to reopen high schools and other educational institutions in the next phase of the lockdown exit. 

Mølbak did not make any recommendations about the reopening policy. He stated that young people do not run a great risk of becoming ill but the figures show that there may be a hidden dissemination of the virus that could pose a challenge during a further relaxation of restrictions. He added that young people sometimes have trouble taking such warnings seriously if they want to meet with their friends but they should consult their consciences and realize that they also have a responsibility to society.

IKEA again again

(The Danish phrase for “yet again” is “igen igen.”) After criticizing IKEA for reopening and then receiving criticism himself for his comments, Simon Kollerup, Minister for Business, has announced more concrete guidelines for large retailers (DK). The new rule is that stores larger than 10,000 square meters (100,000 sq. feet) must allow a space of 20 square meters (200 sq. feet) for each customer. Previously the general recommendation was that there must be only 4 square meters per customer. Other requirements are that customers must be able to walk past one another and stand in line at 2 meters’ distance, that the restaurant and children’s playroom must remain closed, and that there must be adequate supplies of sanitizer or soap and water. Kollerup reported that he had held constructive discussions with retailers and trade associations, and IKEA announced that it would be ready to comply with the new rule today.

As I reported yesterday, the parliamentary opposition has criticized the government for changing the policies during the crisis. Yesterday Magnus Heunicke, the Minister for Health, defended the government’s decisions (DK) to revise its policies. He said that it would be unwise to follow a fixed policy when new information about the spread of the virus is always appearing. Heunicke was questioned by opposition parties particularly about the Health Authority’s guidelines concerning the risk of infection from asymptomatic persons, which were not clarified until April 21, and their significance for the safety of healthcare personnel. Heunicke said that the Health Authority was following the WHO’s recommendations but that it had mentioned the risk earlier.

Terror, death of a poet, and praise from the fake newsmaker

While the Covid-19 crisis grinds along, other things are also happening in Denmark: Police and special forces arrested a radical Islamist (DK) who was allegedly planning a terror attack in Denmark. The young poet Yahya Hassan (DK), who caused a sensation a few years ago with his provocative upper-case exhortations and later ran into trouble with the law, was found dead in his home. And the president of the United States, who is best known for his lies and disinformation, compared Denmark’s pandemic strategy favorably to Sweden’s.

Coronavirus in Denmark: First do no harm

Let’s look at a different aspect of the situation today. Denmark has done fairly well in managing the coronavirus epidemic. I don’t want to give the impression that everything is going perfectly smoothly, though. It has also made some mistakes in the choice and timing of its emergency measures. But part of its relative success may be attributable to avoiding certain mistakes, for things it has not done.

It could be instructive to consider some things that are not happening in Denmark:

• Bureaucratic delays in starting testing.

• Doctors prohibited from complaining about lack of protective equipment.

• Workers fired for complaining about lack of soap.

• Spring breakers holding coronavirus parties where 20 or 40 get infected.

• Churches holding services in defiance of stay-at-home orders.

• Crowding in subway systems.

• People crowding together to watch the arrival of a hospital ship to treat people who don’t observe social distancing.

• A governor who says that senior citizens can be sacrificed so that businesses can reopen.

• A ban on KN95 masks from China despite shortages.

• States banning abortions during the crisis.

• A boom in gun sales and the prepping and home bunker business.

• A popular news outlet claiming that the virus – no more harmful than the flu – is being used “to score cheap political points.”

• A head of state denying that the virus is a threat and claiming it will disappear “like a miracle”; falsely claiming that anyone who wants a test can get one and that a vaccine will be ready “relatively soon”; defending using an ethnic epithet for the virus despite warnings that it encourages hate crimes; etc. etc. etc. etc.

• Death threats being made against an expert who finally persuaded the head of state that the virus isn’t a hoax.

• And this incident, reported on April 2, not on April Fools Day: An engineer derailed a train and drove it toward US Navel Ship Mercy, a hospital ship that had docked in Los Angeles. He said he thought the ship had “an alternate purpose … related to a government takeover…. People don't know what's going on here. Now they will.”

The head of state’s predecessor got a lot of criticism for his pithy foreign policy slogan – “Don’t do stupid shit.” Maybe it’s not such a bad operating principle in a crisis. 

Don’t vote socialist yet, Democrats

Denmark is back in the Democratic primary debates. When Amy Klobuchar listed various people that Trump blames instead of himself, she included “the king of Denmark.” Denmark hasn’t had a king for more than 60 years, and Trump didn’t blame the queen either. After Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen called his proposal to buy Greenland “absurd,” he described her remark as being “nasty.” At his request, Queen Margrethe had invited him to visit Denmark, and after Frederiksen’s response, he canceled the visit. If he had come, he would certainly have found something to blame her for – perhaps for not banning the Trump Baby Balloon – but in this case, Klobuchar’s charge was inaccurate.

As model egalitarian societies, Denmark and the other Scandinavian countries remain in the background of the Democratic campaign, though, as they were when democratic socialist Bernie Sanders praised them in the 2016 campaign. Sanders and Elizabeth Warren presumably know more about Denmark’s welfare state than Klobuchar does about its royalty, and their proposals of radical reforms to reduce social and economic inequities have found an eager audience among a segment of Democratic voters. About half the Millennials polled favor socialism over capitalism. If other countries can provide universal health care, tuition-free university and subsidized daycare, why can’t the supposedly greatest country in the history of the world?

The risks of failure
I can generally recommend Western European social democracy, although it is not quite the socialism that many American Progressives suppose and it is not clear that its socialist tendencies are responsible for its relative prosperity and social harmony. I don’t think this is the moment to bet on a major fiscal restructuring in the US, however. The country is in a political and cultural crisis with a rogue administration dividing the population into factions that can’t understand and communicate with each other. The domestic polarization is worse than it has been in 50 years, and in foreign relations, the administration has destabilized the world by alienating democratic allies and encouraging authoritarian regimes. The stakes have rarely been higher, and the Democrats’ priority should be to end the misrule. A platform of drastic reforms would greatly increase the chances risk that Trump will be re-elected. 

Trump’s base is apparently impervious to dishonesty, disinformation, corruption and consummate boorishness. And a sitting president with a fairly sound economy and no primary challenger in his own party has a huge advantage in the general election. If the Democratic Party is pulled toward the Progressive fringe, it will lose the centrists of both parties and the independents that it needs to win. Demands for open borders, health care for undocumented immigrants, late-term abortions and gender self-identification would alienate moderates. The country cannot afford the risks of another four years of Trumpism. It might be unrecognizable afterward, assuming that the Orange Oaf could be pried out of the office even then.

The risks of succeeding
Even if a Progressive Democratic candidate wins the general election, the implementation of structural reforms to mitigate wealth inequality, economic insecurity and Wall Street abuses is far from certain of becoming a reality. They would be very expensive and require enormous deficit spending, and the partial financing from a wealth tax, a higher capital gains tax, a financial transactions tax and more would most likely crash the stock market and cause a recession, probably another serious one. The market, which has been propped up by the Federal Reserve’s low interest rates and spigot of repo loans to the largest banks is long overdue for a correction, which would be blamed on “democratic socialism” or fears of the same. It would be used to discredit reforms and make it even harder to implement them.

There is a better chance of improving social welfare by first aiming to recapture the White House and restore a traditional liberal democracy before trying to overhaul the healthcare sector and the financial markets. If that succeeds, then it won’t be many terms before AOC and her cohort will get their shot at fashioning post-capitalist, post-racial, post-gender republic.

Europeans’ puzzlement about Trump

The election of Donald Trump was as shocking and disheartening to most Europeans as it was to polite circles in the United States. In some ways it was even more so, because they know less about the America and have more trouble understanding how it could have happened.

The reactions in Denmark, which were probably representative of Europe, were perfectly predictable along party lines. Most politicians were generally understated in observing that the US remains an important partner in world affairs. Right-wing Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen was more cordial, expressing a desire to continue the two countries’ good relations. The Left was aghast and feared for the survival of human rights and, from a slightly longer perspective, the planet. They think Denmark should reconsider the close military alliance it has had with the US since Anders Fogh Rasmussen drank the WMD Kool-Aid in 2003.

Global policewoman 

But it was obvious across the entire spectrum that they had strongly preferred Clinton, as did around 95% of Danes, and found the alternative unthinkable. Danes and most other educated Europeans know Clinton mostly from her role as secretary of state in photo ops with the world’s so-called dignitaries. She was an internationalist; she was well-spoken and well-informed; and she was “tough-minded.” She was also associated with her husband’s tenure during the economic prosperity and international stability in the days before 9/11.

For Danes, Clinton’s most important attribute, given the aspersions Trump cast on NATO, was her credentials as a Cold Warrior and Putin demonizer. Danes often think I’m naïve about Putin when I say that it was the US that fomented a coup against an elected government in Ukraine, much of which had been part of Russia for more than 200 years, and that Russia could hardly be said to have “intervened” in Syria when it was the only major military force that the country had invited.

They say the only reason I don’t worry about Putin is that I didn’t live in a divided Europe during Soviet hegemony. Trump not only is threatening to pull out of NATO, which would give Putin carte blanche to invade the Baltics and push westward; he’s even spoken favorably of that megalomaniac dictator. So Europeans, especially in small, exposed countries, had their own understandable pragmatic interest in the United States’ continuing to defend them against whatever is left of the Russian menace under the vigilant leadership of Hillary, her neocon posse and the US defense industry lobby.

Deplorables may have grievances too 

On the other side of the coin, Europeans were incredulous about Trump’s support partly because they don’t know the real state of what used to be the American middle class. From the same mainstream media that trashed both Sanders and Trump, they heard that US unemployment is below 5%, inflation is below 2%, and economic growth is always starting to gain traction. They don’t know that almost 100 million working-age Americans are out of the labor force; real median wages have fallen for decades; inflation for actual consumers of food, health care services and college tuition is far above the official rate; middle-aged white people in the heartland are addicted to opioids and committing suicide in record numbers; infant mortality … etc. etc.

Europeans had confidence in Clinton because she represented the status quo. Sixty million American voters distrusted her because she represented the status quo. That’s a simplification of course. There were also the classified e-mails on her private server and the apparent abuse of her office for private gains. Her strange, complicated relation to Islam: refusing to identify it with terrorism, opening the immigration floodgates to Muslim refugees, accepting contributions from countries under sharia law, helping to precipitate another Islamic civil war in Libya. And then she alienated a big bloc of the electorate with that elitist deplorables remark.

Caveat, disclaimer and disavowal of liability
I should hasten to add that none of this is meant as an apology for any of Trump’s outlandish pronouncements and behavior. As is well known, most Europeans reject absolutely some of the positions of the American right that Trump has advocated such as relaxed gun control, capital punishment and restrictions on abortion. They also stand to lose from protectionist trade policies. In this brief summary, I have chosen to focus on the aspects of their views I think are most in need of clarification.