Coronavirus DK: Will it ever end?

Now that I’m finished with two book projects that have occupied most of the past year, I intend to resume posting to this blog. Although the topics will concern other things besides Covid, it may be useful to update the state of the pandemic here in light of the new surge and increased uncertainty around the world.

Denmark believes it is returning to normal. Vaccinations have been proceeding steadily, and a large majority of the adult population has now been fully vaccinated. Several test centers are being closed because they are no longer needed. The Social Democratic administration had been under pressure to ease restrictions on commercial and public behavior, and there is a consensus that the country won’t be subject to a lockdown again as others countries have been. Almost all the restrictions are being phased out (DK). Very few people wear masks in public and maintain social distance, almost all of them elderly

67% of Danes fully vaccinated; photo: Emil Helms / Ritzau Scanpix

Partying like it's 2019
Schools will open on schedule, with no requirement for masks. Masks are no longer required on public transportation. For indoor service, restaurants and bars require a “corona passport” documenting vaccination or a negative test, as do fitness centers and service businesses such as hairdressers. Limits on public gatherings and attendance at cultural and sporting events and church services have been raised. Nightclubs and discotheques are the only venues that are still closed. Travel restrictions were also eased during the summer holiday season. 

But the delta variant is interfering with a smooth transition back to pre-pandemic conditions. Infections and hospitalizations (DK) are rising again after dropping to very low levels at the end of June. They got a boost from the raucous crowds gathering to watch Denmark make it to semifinals of the European Cup soccer championship from mid-June to early July. The country now ranks in the top third of Europe (DK) in the recent infection rate.

There is a contingency plan (DK) to lockdown a county or an individual parish if it experiences an acute spike in cases: more than 20 cases; 1,000 infections per 100,000; and a positive results in more than 3% of tests. If it is closed, the area must be come under the limits for seven days before it reopens. There are no closures at present.

Covid-19 in Denmark, 19 August 2021

• Infections: yesterday 984; total 333,815 (below 200 daily in late June)
• Hospitalizations; yesterday 116 (below 30 in early July)
• ICU: yesterday 16
• Deaths: yesterday 0; total 2,562
• Positive test results: 1.60% (0.17% in June)
• Reproduction number: 1.0 (1.3 in July)
• Deaths per million: 442 (vs. USA 1,876; UK 1,930; Sweden 1,460; Norway 149)
• Infections per 100,000 in past week: 119 (vs. UK 300; France 260; Sweden 57; Germany 36)
• Vaccinations begun (first shot): 74.4% of the population
• Fully vaccinated: 67.3%

A new report from the State Serum Institute (DK) shows that the vaccines are still effective against both the delta and alpha variants in preventing infections and hospitalizations.  

Coronavirus DK: Comprehensive reopening plan

Unlike some of the larger Western European countries, Denmark has not been hit by a third wave of Covid-19 cases. The country is planning a full reopening by the end of May.

Update on the pandemic in Denmark:

• Infections have been rising slowly (DK) but steadily in the past month. Now they are around 600-700 per day.
• Hospitalizations ( approx. 200), ICU cases (40), and deaths (under 5 per day) have remained low in the same period.
• Deaths per million stand at 418, in comparison with the US (1,668), the UK (1,874), Sweden (1,135), and Norway (122).
• Testing has increased steadily to 180,000 per day. The positive ratio is 0.38%. The reproduction number has risen steadily this year from 0.7 to 1.1 earlier this month.
• Vaccinations have been delayed. 11.7% of the population has gotten the first dose, and 6.2% has gotten two doses. Large shipments are expected in April.

The unwanted vaccine. Photo: DADO RUVIC © Scanpix.

Return to normal?

Last week Parliament announced a comprehensive plan to relax restrictions (DK) over a six-week period beginning on April 6, in this order: the rest of schools and other educational institutions for part-time physical attendance; stores and shopping centers; outdoor service at restaurants; theaters, concert halls, and indoor service at restaurants; sports and other recreational activities. If the pandemic flares up again, the government reserves the right to postpone measures and implement local restrictions.

Some researchers warn that the reopening will cause cases to double. Nine cases of the Brazilian variant, P1 (DK), have been found recently, and authorities worry that it may be more infectious and less responsive to the vaccine than others. 

The suspension of the AstraZeneca vaccine (DK) has been extended an additional three weeks, until April 15. Despite the European Medicines Agency’s recommendation to resume vaccinations, the Danish Health Authority says it needs more time to investigate the risk of blood clots. 

Men in Orange
A few lockdown protestors from the Men in Black movement have been given extraordinarily long sentences (DK) on the basis of section 81d of the criminal code on “crimes related to the Covid-19 epidemic.” These include the woman who urged protestors to “smash the city in a non-violent way” before a riot that resulted in injuries to several police officers. Other protestors have been charged for actions during the demonstrations, including the man who burned a photo of Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen in effigy on a poster carrying the slogan “She must be and will be put down” (that is, euthanized, an allusion to the culling of large numbers of mink in Denmark last month). Some of the left-wing parties who voted for section 81d are now saying that the proposed sentences are unduly harsh.

Coronavirus DK: Restrictions extended until March

In a press conference yesterday, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced that Denmark will extend its tight pandemic restrictions (DK) an additional three weeks from February 7 to February 28. The main reason she gave was the B117 mutation: “We have seen how quickly the new mutation can bring things out of control. Therefore, we cannot ease the restrictions. Even though more people are being vaccinated, we must go forward carefully.” The measures include the closure of all restaurants, bars and retail businesses, except for supermarkets and pharmacies and a limit on gatherings to five persons. Frederiksen left open the possibility of allowing the youngest pupils, from kindergarten to fourth grade, to return to school before March.

PM Mette Frederiksen bringing bad news yet again. Photo: Liselotte Sabroe/Ritzau Scanpix.

.

The pandemic figures have been falling (DK) since the restrictions were put in place just before Christmas. Daily infections have dropped from around 3,000 to around 500; the percentage of positive tests from a peak of 4% to 0.6%; total hospitalizations from about 900 to 600; and the reproduction number from above 1.0 to 0.7. The percentage of infections deriving from the B117 mutation, however, has risen steadily to 13.%

Vaccine trouble
As in other European countries, the delivery of vaccines has been delayed (DK). Denmark is part of the European Union deal on Pfizer and BioNTech vaccines. The State Serum Institute estimates that the vaccination of groups with lower priority will come around five weeks later than originally scheduled, in April and May. The agency still hopes that everyone will be vaccinated before the end of June. It is pursuing a policy of giving people the second dose of the vaccine three weeks after the first instead of the First Doses First approach taken by some countries in which the second dose is postponed for months in order to give more people the first dose sooner. Thus far, 3.15% of the population have received the first dose and 0.64% have received two doses.

An increasing number of business owners and others are disappointed and angered by the extension. Around 10% of businesses are reported to have serious liquidity problems and are at risk of going bankrupt. In response, the government today announced a new aid package (DK) of loans and other measures worth DKK 170 billion (USD 27 billion). 

Travel scandals
Others are also becoming impatient with the restrictions. There have been a couple of minor scandals recently concerning violations of travel restrictions. Some people have taken to ski resorts in Austria (DK), one of the main hotspots one year ago, under the guise of pursing job opportunities. Last week, it was reported that 50 infected persons had entered Denmark from Dubai (DK) in January. Some 33 of them arrived after the January 9 requirement that passengers coming to Denmark be tested. They had all received negative test results in Dubai before boarding the flight, and there is suspicion of “irregularities” in the testing in Dubai. Some of the travelers were professional athletes and influencers who shared their trip on social media despite the restrictions on travel abroad. After this discovery, the Danish authorities suspended flights from Dubai to Denmark for five days.

After double overtime
But all isn’t doom and gloom. On Wednesday, at the World Handball Championships, the Danish men’s team beat host team Egypt by a score of 39-38 on the final penalty shot in “the most insane handball game in the history of the world,” according to the commentator Henrik Liniger. The team qualified for the semifinal against Spain, which you can watch this evening at 8:30 pm CET (2:30 pm EST) on dr.dk.

Coronavirus DK: Riots, Danish style

Perhaps inspired by the MAGA mob that stormed the US Capitol building, a Danish group calling itself “Men in Black” held protest demonstrations in Copenhagen (DK) and Aalborg yesterday evening. The demonstrations had been announced in advance and were therefore legal. Demonstrations are the only exception to the limit on public gatherings. Several hundred people - indeed mostly attired in black, both guys and gals - met up at the Copenhagen City Hall Plaza around 7 p.m. to listen to speakers who led them in chants: “Freedom for Denmark! We have had enough!” 

The purpose of event was apparently to complain about lockdown restrictions, which have recently been tightened in Denmark, as they have nearly everywhere else. I say “apparently” because that was how it was described by more than one journalist on the scene. The police also reported that they recognized some figures from the “hooligan scene,” that is, soccer fans who fight with supporters of rival teams. 

Demonstrators at CPH City Hall Plaza. Photo: Jonas Moestrup / TV 2

At various times, the speakers expressed objections to the mask requirement and other restrictions, warned that the vaccine is dangerous, and asserted that the coronavirus crisis was a hoax (DK): “We are mad, we are tired, and we are about to go crazy. Where is that virus?” Individual protestors interviewed advocated the theory of a worldwide conspiracy led by Bill Gates and the pharma industry, claiming also that the Danish state had engineered the bankruptcy of small shops so that it could take them over for financial gain. In recent months there have been a few other demonstrations against restrictions, which have all been peaceful. 

“Smash the city in a non-violent way”
In the beginning, the crowd was content to light torches and listen to its leaders, who urged them on with a distinctly Danish moderation: “Are you ready to smash the city in a non-violent way?” The crowd might have had trouble interpreting that exhortation, perhaps unique in the history of insurrectionary war cries. They began shooting fireworks (which are legal only around New Year’s Eve), throwing beer bottles, and then marching down Strøget, the main pedestrian street in the commercial district. 

The police were well prepared for them, however. Vans full of them were waiting on Strøget with their batons drawn, and they drove the crowd back to City Hall Plaza. They announced over loudspeakers that the demonstration was over and people should disperse, “in the name of the Queen and the Law.” The crowd broke up into smaller groups and headed down side streets, with much confusion, taunting, and yelling. There seemed to be little direct fighting between the factions, although the demonstrators shot fireworks at police vans. 

Quick and painless
The demonstrators continued into the Nørrebro district, with the police following close after. The police arrested several people for fireworks violations, resisting arrest, and attacking officers. Smaller groups of up to one hundred coalesced at a few locations, and there were low-key confrontations. But by around 9:30 p.m., activity had quieted down and the police announced that it was “slowly putting the city to bed.”

The demonstrations in Aalborg were smaller and were dispersed even more quickly. A total of 23 people were arrested. No one was reported injured in either city. You can see several brief video clips at the links.

Restrictions extended / Get MEET THE DANES for free

Special limited-time offer
On the Kindle edition of Meet the Danes on the first weekend of what should be a better year (Jan. 2-3): The price is reduced to $0.00, which converts to DKK 0,00.

Stay hunkered down
At a press conference yesterday, December 29, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, who may have aged five years in 2020, announced that the restrictions imposed last week would be extended an additional two weeks (DK) from January 3 to January 17. “The situation regarding infection figures, hospitalizations and deaths is now more serious than it was in the spring,” she said. Small businesses, retail outlets except for supermarkets and pharmacies, bars, and restaurants except for takeout must remain closed.

Healthcare staff conducting Covid-19 test. Photo: Niels Christian Vilmann © Scanpix.

The number of daily infections has fallen from the peak of 4,000 a week ago, but several nursing homes have seen serious outbreaks. With 900 admissions, hospitals are under pressure (DK) to find vacant beds and are postponing all non-urgent operations. 

Netflix and chill NYE
Ministers and health officials warn people to skip New Year’s Eve parties (DK) this year: Cancel plans to see people that you don’t normally see; limit gatherings to your household and perhaps a few familiar persons, no more than ten; avoid popular outdoor sites. The police will close the City Hall Plaza, which traditionally attracts the largest crowds.

Coronavirus DK: Of mink and ministers

Like most everywhere else, Denmark is suffering from the second wave, but it is much milder here than in the larger European countries and in its misguided neighbor Sweden. That hasn’t prevented a political scandal about what should have been a secondary issue, though. 

Mink enjoying their last days in captivity. Photo: Mads Claus Rasmussen © Scanpix.

First, an overdue summary of the health situation (DK):

• Cases of infection (yesterday/total): 1,220 / 64,551 (800-1,200 in past month)
• Tested (yesterday/total): 68,750 / 6,455,895
• Hospitalized (yesterday/total): net -8 / 259
• Intensive (yesterday/total): net -3 / 41
• Recovered (yesterday/total): 1,265 / 49,961
• Deaths (yesterday/total): 4 / 768
• Percentage of positive tests: 1.6% (1.3%-1.9% in past month)
• Reproduction number (est.): 1.1
• Deaths per million: 133 (vs. Norway 55; Sweden 614; USA 751; UK 772; Italy 755)

And a summary of the restrictions in effect (DK):

• Face masks required on public transportation, in public buildings, in supermarkets and shopping centers, at doctors’ offices, clinics and hospitals; partial requirement at schools and other educational institutions. 
• Limit on gatherings to 10 people in public places; recommended also for private gatherings.
• Limit of 500 people at sports events, concerts and churches.
• Restaurants and bars close at 10 pm. Masks required except when sitting down. Nightclubs closed. Sale of alcohol banned everywhere after 10 pm.
• The municipalities in northern Jutland that were closed for travel have reopened.

Minkgate
The big story of the past week or two has been the government's handling of the infections discovered at mink farms in Jutland. It has been well-covered in English-language media. The story morphed from being about the health threat of the outbreak to a scandal about Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s premature and illegal order to destroy 15 million mink and then Agriculture Minister Mogens Jensen’s apparent disregard for several warnings about the spread. Frederiksen has rescinded the order and apologized, and the government has reached a compromise on culling the mink and compensating the breeders, although the measures have not been enacted yet and Opposition parties have been critical of the entire series of events.

Agriculture minister and chickens also face termination
Denmark is the largest mink fur exporter in the world. Kopenhagen Fur (DK), the auction house for some 1,500 breeders in Denmark, recently announced that it would close over the next two or three years. In the spring and summer, Frederiksen enjoyed high approval ratings for her handling of epidemic and withstood criticism of the lockdown from the business-friendly right-wing parties. Now it appears that more people are suffering “corona fatigue” and are also tiring of her relatively autocratic style of governing. Even the government’s supporting parties are saying that Jensen should resign (DK). 

On top of this came a discovery of serious cases of bird flu (DK) earlier this month. Some 25,000 chickens have been culled, and exports of chicken and eggs outside the EU have been suspended. This outbreak poses no threat to humans.

Coronavirus DK: Second wave may be losing steam

 According to tradition, Parliament opens its annual session on the first Tuesday in October, and the prime minister gives a speech on the state of the nation (DK). PM Mette Frederiksen used the occasion to emphasize that, although the country has undergone a resurgence of coronavirus infections, the epidemic is under control: “We have proved that we can both protect individual lives and at the same time be one of the economies that emerges the strongest from the pandemic.” She announced that the government has established a new warning system that will allow the authorities to adjust restrictions more easily. 

This is the status: On Tuesday, October 7, there were 322 new cases of infection (DK), the lowest level since September 11, down from the peak of 652 on September 23. The number hospitalized has been rising slowly but steadily to 124, and the number of death now totals 633. The reproduction number has fallen below 1.0 for the first time since August. Testing has increased recently to about 50,000 per day. More than 23,000 are reported to have recovered from the infection.+

Even though the trend in infections is falling, a large majority of municipalities, 80 out of 98, still have an infection rate above 20 per 10,000 during the past week, the threshold for restricting travel to foreign countries. In the past week, the rate fell in 60 municipalities and rose in 30. 

PM Mette Frederiksen at the opening of Parliament. Photo: Mads Claus Rasmussen / Scanpix.

First MP infected
One person who missed the opening speech was Bjørn Brandenborg, the first member of Parliament to become infected (DK). Brandenborg is a Social Democrat and chair of the Tax Committee who was elected to Parliament in 2019. He took part in a committee meeting last Tuesday at which all participants observed social distancing and hand hygiene. He noticed symptoms the next morning, was tested immediately, and notified his contacts. There have been no reports of other MPs catching the infection since then.

The Minister of Justice has proposed increasing the fine for taking part in gatherings of more than 50 people in order to stop the so-called “pirate parties” (DK) that young people have been caught holding on weekends. The fine is currently DKK 2,500 (USD 400). It will be raised to DKK 4,000 (USD 630) for participants and DKK 10,000 (USD 1,600) for arrangers. The police have extended the closure of two areas in Copenhagen (DK) where young people have held parties and will continue monitoring several other popular hangouts. 

No trick or treat this year
The Health Authority has put a damper on Halloween (DK). It recommends that children not go door to door and avoid large costume parties. It suggests that they invite a few close friends over and enjoy some candy, but it should be served in separate pieces and not eaten from a large bowl. Week 42, beginning on Monday, October 14, is the autumn school vacation, and the Health Authority also recommends recreational activities that do not involve large groups and close contact.

Statens Serum Institute, the infectious diseases agency, announced preliminary results from its antibody tests (DK). It invited 18,000 people to be tested. By August 15, around 6,000 had taken part, and 2.2 percent of them had been infected. The margin of error was fairly large, with a likely range from 1.8 percent to 2.6 percent. Extrapolated to the entire population, that would mean that 90,000 to 130,000 persons in Denmark have been infected. That is in contrast to the official number of confirmed cases on that date of 15,763. One reason the results are uncertain is that not everyone who is infected has antibodies. Although the results are tentative, the SSI believes an infection level of around 2 percent shows that efforts to control the epidemic have generally functioned well.

Update: Restrictions extended
Wednesday, 3pm CET: Minister of Health Magnus Heunicke announced that, despite the recent drop in infections, the restrictions in force will be extended until October 31.

Coronavirus DK: More infections, restrictions and testing

 Like many other European countries, Denmark has seen Covid-19 infections rise (DK) and has resumed restrictions on social and business activity. In the past week, new daily infections have risen above 500, which is higher than the peak of the first wave. They have subsided somewhat in the past week. As before, the number of hospitalizations and deaths remain low. In the past two weeks, daily hospitalizations have risen to double digits and there have been 13 deaths. The reproduction number has fallen slightly to 1.3.

Restaurant sign showing reduced capacity and hours. Photo: Lisbeth Janniche.

Partial lockdown
The restrictions (DK) that were implemented in Greater Copenhagen now apply to the entire country until October 4:

• Restaurants, bars and cafes must close by 10 pm.
• Gatherings are limited to 50 people. Attendance at sporting and cultural events are limited to 500 people.
• Masks must be worn by people over the age of 12 on public transportation, including taxis; by employees and visitors at hospitals, nursing homes and doctors’ offices; and by employees and customers at restaurants and cafes when they are not sitting at tables (not yet at stores and businesses, although health authorities say they will be covered too if the infection rate rises further).
• Alcohol is banned on buses (including so-called “party buses).
• Strict rules apply to visits to hospitals and nursing homes.

Additional recommendations.

• Avoid public transportation at rush hour; ride a bicycle or walk instead.
• Both public and private employees who are able to work at home are urged to do so.
• People are advised to limit their social contacts as much as possible.
• While daycare centers, schools and universities remain open, social arrangements at them are discouraged.

Low mortality rate
Some good news: the mortality rate for patients at Danish hospitals (DK) is relatively low. During the first wave, that is, in the period ending May 19, some 63 percent of ICU patients recovered. In many other countries, including the US, the UK and Italy, the rate was around 50 percent. The average age of the patients was 68. Around 30 percent had no preexisting illness. 

The breakdown by sex in total mortality rate of 37 percent was 42 percent men and 29 percent women. The breakdown by age in the total mortality rate was 5 percent for the 50-64 age group and 64 percent for patients over 80. 

More testing and longer waiting
The administration has promised that testing would be increased significantly for months, and lately the number of test centers and the number of tests administered have increased. Around six weeks ago, the number of daily tests reached 30,000 per day, and in the past week, it has exceeded 40,000 and 50,000. The goal was that 80 percent of requests for tests should be granted within 24 hours and the subjects should receive the results within 24 hours. 

Nevertheless, there are long waiting periods at many test centers (DK). On September 23, it was possible to be tested within 24 hours at only three of the 48 test centers across the country. In a few places, the delays were up to seven days, and sometimes when people appear for test they must wait in line up to six hours before they are tested. The Opposition parties are criticizing the administration for not fulfilling the agreement that was made as a condition for phase 4 of the reopening plan, and Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen reiterated the government’s commitment to the 24-hour framework.

Self-testing for antibodies
The government also has an ambitious plan to test 2 million people for antibodies (DK) during the autumn and in the beginning of the new year. That would be 35 percent of the population. Test kits will be sent to people’s homes, and they will administer the tests themselves by pricking a finger and letting a drop of blood on a testing strip. The result will appear in 15 minutes. 

Coronavirus DK: Infections up and restrictions back

Denmark has seen a steady rise in infections (DK) in the past month, although the number of hospitalizations and deaths remain low. For three months, from the beginning of May to the beginning of August, the number of daily infections was below 100. Since the beginning of September, it has been above 200, rising to 300 this past week. Hospitalizations number 47, 4 in ICUs, and deaths total 631. The reproduction number has fluctuated between 1.0 and 1.5 since mid-July, and it is back at 1.5. Testing has also increased significantly.

The number of deaths per million is now 109. In comparison, the figure is 588 in Italy, 589 in the US, and 616 in the UK. The other Nordic countries: 49 in Norway, 582 in Sweden, and 61 in Finland. 

New restrictions but no return to a general lockdown
Tighter restrictions (DK) went into effect last week. In 18 municipalities, almost all of them in Greater Copenhagen, the limit on gatherings was reduced from 100 to 50 and bars had to close by midnight instead of 2 a.m. The limit on spectators at major sports events was reduced to 500. Face masks have been required on public transportation for two weeks now. 

The number of infections per 100,000 inhabitants has risen above 20 in 39 municipalities, and the mayors of several of them are asking that similar restrictions be implemented there. Many of them have placed limits on visits to nursing homes. But virologist Allan Randrup Thomsen (DK) does not think it is necessary in every case. The absolute number of infections is what matters most, and in some municipalities with a small number of inhabitants, the infections have come from individual incidents.

For example, if an infection is discovered in a school, it may be sufficient to close the school or class temporarily without setting restrictions on the entire community. Future restrictions will probably be implemented locally. One of the next likely measures is requiring face masks in supermarkets and shopping centers. 

Copenhagen Sunday evening. Photo: Ólafur Steinar Rye Gestsson / Ritzau Scanpix.

Young people can’t stop partying
One of the main reasons for the rise in infections, besides the loosening of earlier restrictions, is that young people are holding parties and frequenting bars and parks without observing social distancing measures. Persons from 20 to 30 account for large portion of new infections. At a press conference on Saturday (DK), Police Chief Thorkild Fogde issued a warning that if young people do not become more careful, the police will need to reinvoke tighter restrictions.

It has already made two parks in the Nørrebro district of Copenhagen off-limits, and a violation of the ban is subject to a fine of DKK 2,500 (about $400). Patrols have broken up so-called “pirate parties” at several locations on the weekends. The further restrictions could be requiring masks at bars, closing bars earlier in the evening, and banning gatherings in other areas. Several universities have suspended social activities involving more than 50 attendees. 

Economy is relatively sound
Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen (DK) issued a statement on September 11, exactly six months after the government announced lockdown restrictions. She emphasized that the Danish economy has recovered much faster than it did after the financial crisis. The number of unemployed has fallen from a peak of 45,000 to 25,000. Housing prices have risen since March, particularly for vacation homes. Consumer spending has recovered. Certain industries, such as hospitality and travel, have suffered long-lasting damage, but others, such as the DIY segment, have thrived during the epidemic.

As in the rest of the world, the stock market has rebounded from the initial selloff. Exports have not recovered yet because they are dependent on the economies of other countries. The recovery has been owing to the government’s relief package, and it is difficult to predict its long-term effects. Economist Michael Svarer expects the recovery to continue. He does not expect a deep second drop, as a in W-shaped pattern, but rather something resembling Nike’s swoosh logo.

Coronavirus DK: Resurgence in infections

In recent weeks, Denmark has seen a rise in coronavirus infections (DK), and the trend is accelerating. On Wednesday, 112 new cases were registered. That is the largest number since May 7. The increase has come particularly in two areas. Some 42 of the new cases occurred in Aarhus, Denmark’s second-largest city, and most of them arose among the city’s Somalian population. Several bus drivers were also found to be infected (DK), and hundreds of passengers may have been exposed to them. A large crowd gathered to celebrate the local soccer team’s bronze medal, but thus far no significant number of infections has been traced to it.

Aarhus soccer fans celebrating. Photo: Mikkel Berg Pedersen, Ritzau Scanpix.

The other hotspot is the Danish Crown slaughterhouse in Ringsted, a smaller city on the island of Sjælland. In the past week, the municipality has had an infection rate of 178 per 100,000 inhabitants, in comparison with 10 in Copenhagen and 40 in Aarhus. 

No jump in fatalities
The number of infections had averaged below 30 for most of July. Since July 27, it has been generally above 60. Despite the rise in cases, the number of hospitalizations and deaths has hardly increased. Yesterday, there were 23 patients hospitalized, 2 in ICUs, and a total of 616 had died. There may be a lag between the increase in infections and a rise in hospitalizations and deaths. Officials have warned previously that there is a risk of a second wave in September, after people have returned from summer vacation.

Phase 4 reopening questioned
The new wave comes at a time when the country has planned to increase the limit on gatherings (DK) from 100 to 200. The transition to phase 4 of the reopening is scheduled to take place on Saturday, but some health officials are warning that it should be postponed. Minister of Health Magnus Heunicke and Kåre Mølbak of SSI, the agency for preparedness against infectious diseases, are against opening concert halls and night clubs now.

Kirsten Normann Andersen, health spokesperson of the Socialist People’s Party, believes it is very risky to allow large gatherings that can result in superspreader events. Many Members of Parliament are on vacation now, and some representatives of the Opposition say that the prime minister and the administration should be taking action. The next meeting on the reopening is not scheduled to take place until August 12, after the increase in the ceiling will have taken effect.

Return to restrictions possible
There are also discussions about returning to lockdown conditions (DK) in several areas that have opened up. The most likely venues to be closed are sports stadiums and fitness centers. The likelihood of postponing the opening of schools and universities and of closing day-care centers is lower, as is the closing of restaurants, shopping centers and foreign borders. 

The outbreak in Aarhus
The municipality of Aarhus has already closed nursing homes for visits (DK), and the mayor and the police have warned that they will implement further restrictions if necessary. Pia Kjærsgaard (DK), the founder of the Danish People’s Party, called for restrictions to be placed on the city’s districts with large Somali populations: “We must close the ghettoes, where the great majority of them live, for a period.” She speculated that the Somalis did not follow the news or understand the precautions that everyone is supposed to observe: “It doesn’t help if you sit and watch foreign TV when you should be informed of what is happening in the country where you live.”

Abdirahman M. Iidle (DK), the spokesperson for AarhuSomali, an association of Somali organizations in the city, did not know why the outbreak has occurred in that community. “We have not held any large arrangements, parties or religious holidays,” he said. The only large gathering was a funeral last week for a man who was shot, and that was attended by many people of other ethnic backgrounds as well. Like members of other minority groups, many Somalis hold jobs with high exposure to possible infection, such as healthcare assistant, cleaning staff and bus driver. 

Aarhus Mayor Jacob Bundsgaard says that the muncipality will focus preventive efforts on the neighborhoods with large Somali populations.

Coronavirus DK: The facemask debate continues

The number of infections in Denmark has been rising steadily for three or four weeks, and more and more governments around the world are requiring that people wear masks in public. Denmark still doesn’t require them except in special situations where people might have been exposed, but some politicians and researchers are beginning to speak of a general requirement. Michael Bang Petersen, Professor of Political Science at Aarhus University, says that masks could be the next step in the management of the pandemic. 

A matter of time
Bang Petersen has studied Danes' behavior, opinions and feelings during the coronavirus crisis and believes the authorities should prepare people for wearing masks (DK). “There is now a relatively broad consensus in other places that masks work,” says Bang Petersen. “I would therefore expect that there would be strong political pressure to recommend masks as a first layer of protection if there is a second wave.”

Masks are required on roller coasters. Photo: Mads Claus Rasmussen © Scanpix.

The EU has recently recommended that people wear masks on trains and in railway stations. Denmark’s Red-Green Party proposed that masks be required on public transport (DK). “There is a group of citizens who are actually excluded from using public transportation [because of the risk of infection],” says Peter Hvelplund, the party’s health spokesperson, “and therefore the Health Minister and Minister of Transport must find a solution.”

Not a second wave
Most of the parties are in favor of a recommendation to wear masks but do not believe it is necessary to make them mandatory while the infection rate remains low. “Masks are an option, but there is of course a tradeoff with the inconvenience of wearing them all the time,” says Stinus Lindgreen of the Social Liberal Party. 

Søren Brostrøm, the head of the Health Authority, says that at present there is no value in requiring masks (DK) in order to reduce infections. “We are following the figures closely across the country and locally in order to see whether we should use the tools we have in our toolbox,” says Brostrøm. “We don’t have anything against masks in principle. . . . We are ready if the situation requires it.” But he describes the latest rise in cases as a “flare-up” rather than the beginning of a second wave. 

Use the app
More than 820,000 people have now downloaded the contact-tracing app, Smittestop. But only 207 have registered having the infection. That is far from enough (DK), says Thomas Benfield, Professor of Infectious Disease Medicine at Hvidovre Hospital. “We should register four or five times as many before it becomes optimal.” The app did not become available until after the number of cases had already been reduced greatly. The delay in the rollout occurred because of concerns about privacy.

Coronavirus DK: Reversals in both Lockdown-gate and EU deal

On Saturday another piece of news came out about Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s decision to implement a strict lockdown (DK). As explained yesterday, Frederiksen said that the policy had been determined on the basis of “recommendation of the authorities.” But a recently discovered email from her closest healthcare advisor, Søren Brostrøm, had actually advised against closing the schools and day care centers. Frederiksen faces renewed criticism and questions about the specifics of these “recommendations.”

Kåre Mølbak at a coronavirus press conference. Photo: Niels Christian Vilmann, Ritzau Scanpix.

Now Kåre Mølbak, the director of Statens Serum Institut (SSI), the agency responsible for preparedness against infectious diseases, says in an email to the daily Politiken (DK, paywall) that he supported the administration’s decision. Mølbak was also one of the administration’s closest advisors during the worst period of the epidemic and appeared with Frederiksen and Brostrøm in several press conferences.

An “authority” comes forth
“For me it was essential that the government was prepared to maintain the comprehensive effort that was presented to me on March 11 until after Easter,” wrote Mølbak. “According to SSI’s assessment, this long-term perspective was necessary in order to bring the epidemic under control.”

In his March 11 email, Brostrøm had stated that he had “discussed” his conclusion with Mølbak, but Mølbak now says that at the time he did not share Brostrøm’s concerns about a lockdown. So it appears that Frederiksen has acquired at least one “authority” for her policy and may therefore escape the insinuations of dishonesty and deceit from the opposition parties that became more pointed after the disclosure of Brostrøm’s email.

Don’t celebrate yet, prime ministers
The historic agreement that European Union leaders recently reached on the next seven-year budget and emergency pandemic aid for southern Europe is now in doubt. The deal must be approved by the European Parliament, and at present, a large majority of the Parliament is against it. They voted 465-150 for a provisional resolution to reject the budget (DK).

They have several reservations. According to Manfred Weber, the chair of the Christian Conservative group, the Parliament’s largest bloc, more money in the budget should be directed toward research, healthcare and the EU’s outer borders. Along with other factions, Weber also insists that the disbursements to member states be contingent on adherence to the “European spirit,” that is, to democratic principles. 

No money for autocrats
“It is completely clear for us socialists,” said Iratxe Garcia Perez of the Social Democratic group, “that not a single euro should go to the governments that do not fully respect the rule of law and the fundamental values of the Union.” These are allusions to the infringement of freedom of the press and judicial independence in Hungary and similar tendencies in Poland. Those two countries succeeded avoiding immediate sanctions that affect their receipt of EU funds.

The resolution isn’t binding. The final vote is not scheduled to take place until the end of September.

Editorial note
You may have noticed that the news about the epidemic in Denmark has become less dramatic in recent weeks as the spread of infections remains under control despite the gradual relaxation of lockdown restrictions. There is no longer much need for these updates on a daily basis, so from now on, they will appear less frequently and may treat other topics besides the coronavirus. If there is a second wave that causes great disruption again, as is happening now in some locales, they can resume. Stay tuned, and thanks for reading.

Coronavirus DK: Justification for lockdown questioned again

The tabloid B.T. has discovered an email message that throws further doubt (DK) upon Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s justification for locking down Denmark in mid-March. The email, which was sent from Søren Brostrøm, head of the Health Authority, only seven hours before Frederiksen’s historic announcement of the lockdown, recommends not closing schools and day care centers. It states that “children are not expected to cause a significant spread of the virus” and the negative effects of the closure would outweigh the positive ones.

Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. Photo: Niels Christian Vilmann © Scanpix.

At the press conference, Frederiksen said that she was ordering the lockdown “on the recommendation of the authorities.” She has been questioned about the decision earlier. At a meeting requested by the opposition parties held on June 9, she reiterated that it was based on the recommendations of a “broad group of authorities” without specifying who or what she was referring to. The issue is important, says Sten Brønsing, Professor of Constitutional Law at Aalborg University, because ministers may not justify political decisions (DK) on the basis of recommendations of government officials if such recommendations have not been made.

Come clean, Mette
Now three opposition parties are demanding a clear explanation (DK): “We hope that she will realize on her own that it is reasonable to explain to the Danes why she said something that is not true,” says Peter Skaarup, leader of the Danish People’s Party parliamentary group. The effect of Frederiksen’s press conference was to “deceive the Danes,” continues Skaarup. “It cannot be interpreted otherwise.”

(Commentators have noted that both the administration and opposition parties have begun referring to the population as “the Danes” rather than “citizens” or “people.” Some have attributed populist, even subtly racist intentions to this usage, which might imply that a certain segment consists of real, ethnic Danes.)

Ratcheting up the rhetoric to “not honest”
The Liberal Party is demanding a written report (DK) from the prime minister and threatening to call for another investigatory meeting. “It is wrong that the prime minister in the beginning was not honest and did not say that this was a political decision,” says Karen Ellemann, the acting political spokesperson for the Party. “We have asked several times who had recommended [the lockdown].” The Conservative Party is also criticizing Frederiksen for not being forthcoming.

In none of these accusations did the opposition say that the lockdown was wrong or was a bad decision. They did not contain any evaluation of the administration’s lockdown policy itself or its consequences in comparison with results in countries that did not implement similar restrictions. The opposition pressured the government to relax restrictions earlier than it had planned, but Frederiksen has had a high approval rating in opinion surveys throughout the crisis.

She is away on vacation at present. Her office refers inquiries to the explanation given at the June 9 meeting. Parliament has appointed a commission that will evaluate the entire management of the coronavirus crisis. 

Coronavirus DK: Rise in infections may delay phase 4 reopening

The number of infections in Denmark has been rising (DK) in the past month, and some are becoming concerned. The level had been rather low for a long time, and although the rise has not been drastic, it has been steady in the period since the borders were opened. In week 27, which began on Monday, June 29, there was an average of 18 confirmed cases per day. In week 28, the number rose to 24, and last week it hit 34. So far this week, the level is 43.

On Thursday, Minister of Health Magnus Heunicke commented on the increase (DK) in a Facebook post. He wrote that the situation is still under control but urged people to observe the Health Authority’s guidelines. There have been no large outbreaks, added Heunicke, and the Patient Safety Authority, which is responsible for contact tracing, reports that the rise in cases is not owing to increased testing. 

Nevertheless, Heunicke notes that new lockdowns have become necessary in several places, such as Spain, Australia and the US, and urges Danes to be more cautious: “Maybe we have succeeded so well that people have begun to slack off a little on the good habits that keep the virus down. That must not happen. We must not put everything in jeopardy at any price.”

Few new hospitalizations
The most significant aspect of the situation, according to Henrik Nielsen, head doctor at Aalborg University hospital, is that the number of hospitalized and ICU patients has not followed the trend in infections. There is usually a lag of about two weeks between a rise in infections and increased hospitalizations, but the latter have held steady at a low level. Yesterday the total rose from 16 to 19, but it has been below 20 for two weeks. 

Phase 4 of the reopening is scheduled to begin on August 4, with the reopening of nightclubs, concert halls, and other venues where people congregate at close quarters. “We can’t see from the figures whether that will lead to a new wave,” says Nielsen.

The virus loves to party
The trend has led to a division between the two sides of the political spectrum (DK). The left wing wants to reconsider the planned phase 4 reopening. “It is very worrying,” says Peder Hvelplund, the healthcare spokesperson for the Red-Green Party. “It is crucial that we intervene early.”

Giving "disco fever" a new meaning. Photo: Mogens Flindt, Scanpix Danmark.

“Nightclubs could be something that I think it isn’t certain that it is wise [to reopen],” says Kirsten Normann Andersen of the Red-Green Party. She notes that it is especially difficult to trace contacts when you are close together with a crowd of strangers.

Typical political schism
Not all the parties are alarmed, however. “An increase was expected because we are opening further and people are traveling both in and outside the country,” says Stinus Lindgreen of the Social Liberals. “We have seen before that there is a rise and then it falls again.” Karen Ellemann of the Liberal Party agrees: “With these figures I don’t see a cause for concern because there is nothing to indicate that they are out of control.”

The Ministry of Health offered no further comments except to say that the government would discuss the phase 4 reopening with the other parties after the summer vacation. But the Foreign Ministry has just updated its travel advisory and now discourages unnecessary travel to Bulgaria (DK), where young people flock to beach resorts.

Coronavirus DK: Disappearing jobs, equipment and ice

Statistics Denmark reports that 87,000 jobs disappeared (DK) in the spring. “That is an insane number,” says Las Olsen, Chief Economist at Danske Bank. “We’ve never seen anything like it before.” It reverses all the employment growth since late 2017. The worst hit sectors are commerce and transport, which together accounted for half of the decline. Next come culture, leisure and other services, which experienced the largest percentage drop. The figures are rather uncertain, however, and actually higher, says Olsen, because people who are receiving wage compensation are not included.

Selective rebound expected
The decline is not as large as when 200,000 lost their jobs during the financial crisis, but it has taken place much more quickly. On the other hand, the recovery should also come faster as businesses and other organizations reopen. Certain industries, such as hospitality and entertainment, will not recover for a couple of years, however, and some people will need to shift to other fields in order to find work, concludes Olsen.

Disappearing PPE
Something else has vanished in large volumes since March – personal protective equipment. The police have registered 29 cases of sanitizer, face masks and gloves being stolen (DK) from hospitals, nursing homes and shops since March, and they treat them very seriously: “We did it especially in the start, because at that point we were in an acute situation where it was possible Denmark would run out of protective equipment,” said Søren Enevoldsen, deputy inspector with the National Investigatory Center. These crimes have received special attention because in April Parliament passed a bill that made the punishment for offenses related to the coronavirus epidemic four times as high as usual.

Mobile supply cabinets are a target for PPE thieves. Photo: (C) DR Nyheder.

This meant that someone who steals, say, DKK 10,000 ($1,500) worth of supplies from a hospital could get the same sentence as someone charged with assault with a knife. The reasoning is that both actions could put someone’s life in danger. At one point, one quarter of nursing home employees were reporting a shortage of PPE. A man who committed theft from a hospital, for example, was sentenced to four months in prison. Few offenders have been sentenced, though, because many of the arrests took place before the increased penalty went into effect. 

Glaciers disappearing, but Greenland will remain
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo came to Copenhagen on Wednesday and assured the nation that the US is ready to fight in the Arctic for the people of Denmark. “We have all been a little bit naïve to watch not only the Russians but also the Chinese interests there become more and more aggressive.” As the glaciers in the Arctic melt, more opportunities for military patrolling as well as trade open up. One month ago, the US opened a new consulate in Nuuk, the capital of Greenland, and made a commitment to invest in the strategically important region.

Pompeo affirmed that Denmark continues to be one of America’s closest allies: “We are two nations that are both robust democracies.” On that topic, he didn't mention his boss’s refusal to say that he would abide by the presidential election results in November. On the positive side, neither did he repeat Trump’s attempt to buy the autonomous territory.

Coronavirus DK: EU recovery package – the ugly sides

On the day after the EU agreement, the more critical analyses appeared. Denmark’s annual contribution to the EU for the relief package and the budget in the coming 7-year period will rise from DKK 19.7 billion ($3 billion) to DKK 24.2 billion ($3.7 billion). PM Mette Frederiksen said it was necessary because of the coronavirus crisis and Brexit. Was the deal worthwhile for Denmark? And for the EU?

Macron, Merkel and others approve the deal. Photo: John Thys/Pool © Scanpix.

Strategy of “miserliness”
Columnist Lars Trier Mogensen emphasizes Frederiksen’s role in the Frugal Four as negotiating for the least possible expense for Denmark (DK). That is, of avoiding joint debt and then minimizing the amount when it couldn’t be avoided. The position goes against social democratic values of generosity and solidarity with less fortunate partners that Frederiksen’s party advocates on the domestic front. It resembles the position of the preceding right-wing government that the Danish Social Democrats criticized, as well as Germany’s earlier insistence on austerity for Greece after the financial crisis. 

But domestic politics trumps international collaboration. That is the perpetual problem and paradox of the EU. The state leaders’ own constituencies reward them not for giving priority to the common good but for being selfish and cheap. The coronavirus crisis has strengthened EU skepticism as some countries experienced catastrophes in their healthcare systems and others closed borders to protect themselves from the spread of the pandemic. 

Frederiksen and her allies succeeded in reducing the amount of aid that the other countries wanted to give southern Europe, and she succeeded in portraying herself as standing up to demands from EU bureaucrats. She appealed to the EU skeptics in the Danish People’s Party, from which the Social Democrats have taken voters recently because of their stricter policies on immigration and refugees. It is a policy of isolationism and “Denmark first,” says Trier Mogensen, and the overall result is that the EU will be weaker because it will take longer for Italy and Spain to recover from the crisis. 

Capitulation to authoritarianism
Marlene Wind, Professor of Political Science and leader of the Center for European Politics at the University of Copenhagen, places a different emphasis on the compromise. She sees the EU’s leaders’ relinquishment of the requirements for democratic principles and institutions in Hungary and Poland as a betrayal of the Union’s founding principles (DK). The two countries threatened to veto the recovery package if their autocratic tendencies were subject to immediate sanctions and succeeded in obtaining a more complicated review process. Hungary’s emergency law, for example, allows PM Viktor Orban to circumvent parliament and issue decrees, and it has not been discontinued in June as planned. . 

The agreement could thus be celebrated by both those who favored a strengthened union and those who were critical of it. The lesson for Wind, as for Trier Mogensen, is that money is more important than principles. The deal means that the EU will no longer be able to criticize other countries for undemocratic practices and violations of human rights. 

“What is it actually that we agree on, if not democracy?” asks Wind. “Putin and Erdogan and the Chinese will laugh about our autocrats when we criticize them: ’You can’t tell us that judges can’t be jailed and the press can’t be censored when you can’t control your own members.’”

Coronavirus DK: Denmark approves EU relief grants

Very early Tuesday morning the heads of state in the European Union reached a historic agreement on a coronavirus recovery package (DK). The deal consists of EUR 750 billion ($860 billion) in loans and grants to offset the economic damage caused by the pandemic. It was settled after four days of sometimes intense negotiations. The difficulty was owing mainly to the objection of the “frugal four” nations – which included Denmark – to providing grants as well as loans to the hardest-hit countries.

Three of the Frugal Four – PMs Stefan Löfven (Sweden), Sebastian Kurz (Austria), and Mette Frederiksen. Photo: John Thys/Pool © Scanpix.

This is the first time that the EU will issue and be liable for bonds jointly. That is, the first time that the Union has taken joint responsibility for helping individual countries without obligation. During the financial crisis, the Union provided loans to Greece under strict conditions and sent inspectors to conduct investigations on their implementation. In this case, there are also conditions on reforms attached to the grants, but they will not be enforced by external monitoring.

The inevitable compromise
The 23 other countries wanted to use EUR 500 billion for grants, and the four holdouts countered with an offer of EUR 350 billion. The latter were criticized, particularly by French President Emmanuel Macron, for putting the entire European project in danger. The leaders finally reached a compromise of EUR 390 billion along with rebates on the annual contributions of the frugal four.

Denmark’s rebate in the new budget will increase from DKK 1 billion ($150 million) to DKK 2.7 billion ($415 billion). Altogether Denmark’s contribution during the coming budget period will increase, partly because the departure of the UK from the Union raises the expenses for the remaining countries. Denmark receives a rebate because it is a net payor to the budget, meaning that it contributes more than it receives in subsidies.

About the rebate, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said, “It indicates that you can fight for both Danish and European interests at the same time. . . . Altogether it is a really, really good agreement for Europe and a really, really good agreement for Denmark.”

Climate and democracy in play
Frederiksen said that it was also in Denmark’s interest (DK) that the southern European countries can recover from the coronavirus crisis. She also commended the increased emphasis on climate and research in the new budget. Another main sticking point was a requirement that the EU's annual disbursements be contingent on countries’ adherence to democratic principles and the rule of law. This was directed particularly at Poland and Hungary, which threatened to veto the relief package and succeeded in forcing a compromise on the measure that weakened the review process.

The fatigued officials were relieved to be able to bump elbows after the last marathon session. "I can’t remember the last time I have been awake for two nights in a row, but it was necessary,” said Frederiksen. “[We] toast not with champagne, but with juice.”