Replacing the Danes

Denmark’s immigrant population has increased only slightly since the wave of refugees and migrants came up into Europe in 2015. Yet in certain quarters, the number appears to be rising at an alarming rate. In an op-ed column in Jyllands-Posten entitled “Everyday jihad is a result of the increasing demographic replacement” (DK), Pia Kjærsgaard, the founder of the Danish People’s Party, wrote that Denmark’s survival as a homogeneous nation was being threatened. The reason for her concern was that she read that the non-Western population in the country was some 400,000 larger than the official figure from Statistics Denmark.

In Information, another Danish daily, Serge Savin looked into the figures (DK) and found the situation different than Kjærsgaard implied in more than one way. The figure that Kjærsgaard referred to  derives from a book, Integration – her går det godt (Integration: It’s going well here), by Hjarn von Zernichow Borberg, external associate professor at the University of Copenhagen’s Economic Institute. Statistics Denmark had registered 800,000 immigrants and their descendants, and von Zernichow Borberg first listed 1.2 million and then revised it down to 1.1 million.

Fun with math
So the difference in the two figures is really 300,000 and not 400,000. The reason for the difference, von Zernichow Borberg explains, is that Statistics Denmark counts only children with two foreign parents and he added children with a single foreign parent. But those parents are not all from non-Western countries; they are foreigners from the entire world. He estimates that around 100,000 are from non-Western countries. Furthermore, von Zernichow Borberg continues, Kjærsgaard implies that the threat to Danish culture comes from increasing Muslim influence, and not all of these parents from non-Western countries are from predominately Muslim countries. They may be from China or Ukraine. The estimate of additional children with a parent from a Muslim country is 25,000. Here are current figures from Statistics Denmark.

The more accurate figure for the additional, at least partially Muslim population above the official figure is thus around one-sixteenth of the number that Kjærsgaard cites. As Savin notes, the demographic replacement theory has a long racist history. It got a strong boost from Renaud Camus’s Le grand remplacement in 2012 and figured in various right-wing extremist and white supremacist terrorist actions such as those in Utoya and Christchurch. In the US, it burst into prominence in the chant, “The Jews will not replace us,” in the Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville in 2017. Kjærsgaard did not wish to comment on the Information article, but another member of the Danish People’s Party, Martin Henriksen, found no reason to avoid the term “replacement” because it was “the best way to get the message out.”

Concept creep: The better it gets, the worse it seems
The surprising thing about such alarmism coming at this moment is that integration seems to be working in Denmark much better than it had before. And that is owing to some degree to the many restrictive measures that the preceding center-right administration implemented, partly at the urging of the Danish People’s Party. The country suspended participation in the UN quota refugee system and discouraged migrants. The new Social Democratic administration thus far has softened those restrictions only slightly. It is coming under some pressure from its supporting left-wing parties to do more, though, and perhaps that is what Kjærsgaard and her allies want to discourage. The further irony, noted by von Zernichow Borberg, is that the additional number of children should be viewed as a positive sign. Muslim immigrants have been criticized for maintaining a separate, “parallel society,” and intermarriage is clearly a step toward integration.

Immigrant children are getting more education than Danes

The results of a new study (DK)  from Think Tank DEA surprised researchers. They show that, after the data are adjusted for the families’ financial background, more children of non-Western immigrants are completing a course of higher education than so-called “ethnic Danes.” 

The study compares the number of young people who have taken a bachelor’s degree within 10 years of graduating from elementary school, that is, ninth grade, in the period 2002-08. The subjects are broken down into quintiles on the basis of their parents’ income. The results are consistent across the income spectrum: 8 to 10 percent more of the children of non-Western immigrants – both those born in Denmark and born elsewhere – attain a degree than Danes. The percentage ranges from about 30 percent for the lowest quintile to 60 percent for the highest. 

Without the adjustment, this still isn’t the case. The gross average for all Danes is 33 percent and for immigrant youth is a couple of points lower. The difference in the two results reflects the fact that there are relatively few children of immigrants in the highest quintile segment. Another qualification is that Danish youth may take longer to finish college because more of them take a supplementary year before starting gymnasium (high school) and take a gap year before college.

Breaking the trend and the pattern
Nevertheless, the results are seen as a significant success for recent efforts to get more children of immigrants to pursue higher education. The accepted “story” in Danish society about ethnic minorities and education, especially in recent years during the rise of nationalist sentiment and the Danish People’s Party, has been that the lack of education and interest in education among immigrant children were a prime factor in preventing meaningful integration. 

For a few years now, however, immigrant girls have constituted an exception to this image. A study from the Economic Council of the Labour Movement (DK) published in September showed that, of children of parents without an education, more girls with an immigrant background completed a degree than Danish girls as well as boys, or became “pattern-breakers” who exemplify social mobility. Even in gross terms, without considering parental  background, immigrant girls recently surpassed Danish boys in educational attainment.

Girlbosses on the march or boys playing hooky
I would draw two conclusions from the study, one fairly obvious: The problem is with boys, particularly low-income boys of all ethnicities. It is well known that girls have been overtaking boys in the educational system for years in the US as well as Denmark. With the outsourcing and automation of manufacturing, academic training is necessary to thrive in the knowledge economy, and girls have seen women advancing into professional careers for at least a generation.

Critics have said that the educational system is geared towards girls, who are able to sit still, concentrate and communicate verbally at an earlier age than boys, and that boys become discouraged and fall behind. Another explanation in the Danish context is that immigrant girls are encouraged to pursue education as the path toward integration in Danish society and are receptive to the message, while boys are “left on their own” and are more likely to end up in vocational training if they pursue a career. In any case, the fact that, taking into account their economic background, immigrant boys show the same margin of superiority in education to Danish boys is a striking development.

The stick and the carrot
The other conclusion will be less palatable to many. That is, that the hard line on immigration and integration taken by the preceding (center-right) Liberal administration in both policy and rhetoric has been effective in changing attitudes toward integration among immigrants. Inger Støjberg, the Minister for Immigration and Integration from 2015 to 2019, was mocked and vilified for her 100-plus measures to restrict immigration and reduce social benefits for immigrants. She was accused of being cruel, of increasing child poverty, and of flouting international conventions. She is still the subject of an investigation (DK) for allegedly separating refugee couples in which the girl was a minor automatically, disregarding their right to a hearing on their residential accommodations. 

Despite the legitimate criticisms, it is likely that the reduced number of immigrants has made it easier for the educational system and social services to help steer those already living here into productive career paths and has mitigated the sense of a separate social underclass in immigrant neighborhoods that is exacerbated by a steady flow of new arrivals. And that the insistent rhetoric about the necessity of rejecting Sharia law and accepting the norms of Western society, such as equal protection and equal opportunity, has helped to persuade immigrant families that formal education is the best means of promoting their children’s success and happiness. These effects are probably the reason that the new Social Democratic administration, in its approach to integration, has only moderated its predecessors’ harshest measures and maintained the emphasis on liberal democratic values.

Welcome to the happiest country

The Expat Insider 2017 report has just been released by Internations, the networking organization for expats (disclosure: to which I belong). It is an extensive annual poll that this year surveyed 13,000 respondents in 65 countries on the basis of 43 factors. It is interesting to compare the results with those of the international happiness surveys because the results differ greatly. For those who consider moving or posting abroad, this report may be more relevant as an indication of what to expect when living in a country than the surveys of native populations.

Recall that in the World Happiness Report (WHR), the same group of countries filled the top ten spots year after year: almost exclusively northern European countries and smaller (population-wise) Anglo countries such as Australia. The overall ranking in the Expat Insider (EI) report is called “Top Destinations,” and the top three this year are Bahrain, Costa Rica and Mexico. The results are also much more volatile; Bahrain moved up from No. 19 in 2016. Without considering the size of the sample or whether the methodology is as rigorous, we can expect expats’ opinions to vary and change as a matter of course because they are on the move and in the process of adjusting to a foreign setting.

Slicing and dicing life abroad

The survey breaks the results down into several indices (shown in the left-hand column below). Each of the indices, in turn, is based on rankings according to more specialized parameters. For example, Quality of Life comprises Leisure Options, Personal Happiness, Transport, Health and Safety.      

Here’s a summary of the results in each index for the top-ranked country, Denmark and the US:

Summary: Expat Insider 2017

Index	No. 1	Denmark	USA
Top Destination	Bahrain	30	43
Quality of Life	Portugal	12	47
Ease of Settling In	Bahrain	65	28
Working Abroad	Czech Republic	9	28
Family Life	Finland	4	36
Personal Finance	Vietnam	56	37

NB: The Family Life index covers only 45 countries, and the Personal Finance parameter seems to concern primarily the cost of living.

No welcome wagon

The most glaring inconsistency between the two reports is that Denmark, the recurring No. 1 in the WHR, ranks 30^th overall among expats. It scores at the extremes of the EI indices. We know that, on the one hand, it is safe and has good child care and a good work-life balance, and also, on the other, that with its high taxes and duties it is expensive. The surprising score, which along with the cost of living drags down the overall ranking, is that it comes in dead last on Ease of Settling In, while countries such as Nigeria and Kazakhstan land in the middle.

Does this mean that the Danes are the most unfriendly people to foreigners? Consider the subcategories of this index: Feeling Welcome: 61; Friendliness: 59; and Finding Friends: 64. In the last subcategory, Language, it ranks 40^th even though everyone speaks English. Yes, the results suggest that the happiest people in the world are also the most unwelcoming – a disturbing combination on the face of it. Denmark has gotten a reputation for being anti-immigrant and anti-refugee, but the expats in this survey are generally well-educated people who don’t intend to live in the country permanently and don’t consume more than their share of its social benefits.

Tops in foreign aid

It looks like the Danes are happy among themselves and don’t want to share their happiness with others. But at the same time, Denmark managed to rank first in the 2017 Commitment to Development Index. It feels an obligation to the world and discharges it in a thoughtful, exemplary manner. Some other affluent, relatively happy countries rank near the bottom for “Settling In,” even those most welcoming of the big refugee wave of 2015, which were also near the top in Commitment to Development: Sweden: 49; and Germany: 56. In contrast, this was the best index for the otherwise not very tempting destination USA.

Another “parallel society”

I have attended several Internations events in Copenhagen lately. These well-attended cocktail parties and other activities have a lively, pleasant atmosphere. The typical participant is a single, thirty-something professional from another European country, and there is also a fair share from the Middle East. Many work in IT and pharma-biotech. A recurring topic is the difficulty of infiltrating mainstream social life in Denmark.

Even when everyone is supposed to speak English at international companies, Danes speak Danish among each other. They usually leave work early and don’t stop for a drink on the way home. Their leisure activities are focused on their families, extended families, and clubs in their local communities. Expats flock to these Internations events because they often cannot find activities as accessible and welcoming among the Danes. (Caveat: This sample may be not be representative: Many foreigners who are integrated probably don’t have the same need to attend expat events.)

Investing in the future

I can speak from both sides of the integration fence. It is possible to become fairly well integrated. It helps to be outgoing, enterprising and willing to mispronounce the language for a while. The quickest is to marry a Dane, get a permanent residence permit and have children here. Then you learn the language, become part of the child-care and school system, and begin to benefit from the advantages in quality of life. But even after living here many years, few immigrants can pass as real Danes, and their children may always make fun of their accents.

I should add that more foreigners than ever are working in Denmark and that, to the relief of industry associations, the government is proposing to expand the tax break for highly skilled foreign employees to attract more. The trend will continue, and as the country becomes more cosmopolitan, it may be able to crawl off the bottom of the hospitality league. But it has a long way to go to become a melting pot.

Immigration is always on the agenda

In Denmark, it’s called “cucumber time,” the silly season for trivial news in the summer when nothing important is happening. In the past two weeks, however, the media have been dominated by the macabre story of a sunken submarine and missing Swedish journalist. But the Danish MPs have in fact been at work on proposals for measures affecting refugees, immigration and integration. Here is a summary.

As I mentioned last week, in response to an increase in shootings in Copenhagen, the minister of justice introduced a package intended to combat gang crime and violence. The week afterward, the Municipality of Copenhagen announced a set of initiatives intended to do the same. They concentrate on improving the coordinated efforts of social workers and the police, and they include visits to the homes of young men vulnerable to recruitment, a program to help gang members leave gangs safely, and assistance finding jobs for ghetto residents.

Liars and beggars

The government announced a proposal for a ban on permanent residence permission for refugees who are caught lying about their circumstances in applications for asylum. This concerns mainly young people who claim to be under 18 in order to obtain preferential treatment, and the Immigration and Integration Ministry reports that three-quarters of the applicants subjected to an age test were judged to be over 18. This would be measure No. 65 in the government’s campaign to restrict immigration. Critics argue that uncertainties and misunderstandings can easily arise in the hearings when interpreters are used. The proposal wouldn’t rescind applicants’ rights to temporary asylum under international conventions.

In June, Parliament passed a bill that made begging a crime punishable by two weeks in jail over the protests of organizations for the homeless. This came after an increase in foreign indigents camping out in city parks and other public places. More recently, the Danish People’s Party, the country’s most vehement anti-immigration party, proposed placing notices in Romanian newspapers warning about the policy in order to prevent people from coming. The measure is reminiscent of the ads placed in Lebanese newspapers to dissuade refugees from coming to the country.

Burkas and Muslim schools

Another measure that the Danish People’s Party has proposed several times is a ban on burkas or full facial covering. The Conservative Party has supported the ban, and now the Liberal Party expects it to be adopted soon. The European Court of Human Rights recently ruled that Belgium could implement such a prohibition, and the Norwegian government is also considering it. The small Liberal Alliance Party, which gives the right-wing coalition its very slim mandate, is against the ban, but the Social Democrats would consider a proposal.

In one of the proposals with the most wide-reaching implications, Mette Frederiksen, the leader of the Social Democrats, called for the closure of Muslim private schools in which the majority of pupils are non-Danish. This came after reporting by the BT daily on a headmaster who posted anti-Semitic images on social media. Noting that these schools may also promote values in conflict with the principles of democracy and sexual equality, Frederiksen questioned whether they are helping or hindering integration. The proposal itself may be in conflict with the European Human Rights Convention.

The latest announcements came from the administration: plans to contribute to a program to protect religious minorities abroad, particularly Christian minorities in the Middle East and North Africa, and the addition of two names to the blacklist of foreign “hate preachers.”

Xenophobia, intolerance?

So, significant things are happening behind the cucumber dressing. These measures of course reflect the tendency across Europe towards nationalism and isolationism. They may seem overly stringent, politically incorrect, even anti-humanitarian or racist, and they damage Denmark’s progressive reputation. They test the limits of certain provisions in human rights conventions, and some are contested and even invalidated. Then the legislators will try to find another way around the problem. That’s the democratic process.

And that’s a more important factor than one’s opinion on a given issue. There is a real debate here. The minority government must negotiate and compromise in order to muster a majority in Parliament. Cabinet members, other government officials, interest groups and affected citizens actually hold discussions in which they are not simply talking past each other while grandstanding for their own constituencies. When the center-left Social Democrats endorse selected measures as well as propose their own, they pass with a large majority.

Whose democracy is under siege?

Compare this with the situation in the United States, where there is growing polarization and now violent conflicts between nativists and proponents of identity politics as witnessed in the Charlottesville debacle. Congress can’t do anything about it, the executive branch exacerbates it, the two branches cannot collaborate, and executive orders are overturned by the courts.

Denmark is in the Islamic State’s sights. The recent events in Spain and Finland could have taken place here. The current wave of violence in Copenhagen and nearby Malmö, Sweden, involves gangs with predominately minority members who live in an alienated, “parallel society.” Certain controls and precautions are realistic and necessary. The Danish campaign on immigration and integration is not based on tricks, mystification and demagoguery. It consists of mainly incremental measures that often have international precedents. Most important, they are implemented by a functioning democracy. That’s what’s sorely lacking now in the US.