Coronavirus DK: Is there a verdict on Sweden?

Is it possible to judge Sweden’s singular coronavirus policy yet? Denmark’s neighbor has diverged from the rest of the world in refraining from locking down large sectors of social and business activity. It has kept restaurants and schools open and has not issued social distancing rules. Like its Scandinavian neighbors, it citizens exhibit a high degree of social trust in one another and in the government, and it has relied on people to behave sensibly of their own accord. For a while it seemed to be working well. The number of infections and deaths in the country were not significantly higher than in similar countires. It was praised by critics of lockdown policies in other countries for showing the strict regulations that harm the economy are unnecessary. So what is the status of the experiment?

It has now reached almost 4,000 deaths (DK), in comparison with 562 in Denmark. Its population is around twice as large. It has 398 deaths per million persons in comparison with 98 in Denmark, 44 in Norway, and 55 in Finland. I have thought that the spread of the infection has been higher in Denmark than in Norway because the first cases involved superspreaders who returned from hotspot ski resorts in Austria and northern Italy, and Norwegians do not need to travel south to go skiing. So if Sweden’s most comparable neighbors are Norway and Finland, its fatality rate is about eight times higher.

Elusive herd immunity

The person behind the strategy, Anders Tegnell, the head state epidemologist, has defended the policy all along, contending that is too early to judge the results. If the objective was too reach “herd immunity” by allowing most of the population to become infected and afterward immune, then there would inevitably be more infections and deaths in the beginning stages. In countries that conduct extensive lockdowns, when people who have isolated themselves begin to emerge, many of them will become infected and the country will see additional waves of infection, goes the rationale.

On several days last week, the fatality rate in Sweden (DK) was the highest in the world. On day 60 of the epidemic, the rate was even higher than Italy’s at the same stage, and ten times as high as Denmark’s. And the country is still far from herd immunity. There were earlier predictions that around half of Stockholm’s population would reach immunity in June, but a recent count of persons who have developed antibodies to the disease was only 7.3 percent, and that is much higher than in the rest of the country. There is much uncertainty in identifying immunity, and the WHO had warned Sweden in April that not everyone who is infected develops immunity.

Unrealistic expectations

Now criticism is growing (DK) both inside and outside the country. For example, former state epidemologist Annike Lind said that if the country had closed down early it could have done more to protect the most vulnerable people. Tegnell had said that they would protect the elderly, she said, but it “had little relation to reality.” A large share of the deaths have come in nursing homes. 

Tegnell denies (DK) that Sweden could have done anything differently to protect the elderly, arguing that the poor quality of Swedish nursing homes made them vulnerable. He also says that the objective has never been herd immunity, which is not possible until there is a vaccine. But he maintains that if people don’t change their behavior they will continue to see a decline in the number of infections.

Playing with statistics

Another Swedish researcher recently defended the strategy (DK). Matti Sällberg, a professor at the Karolinska Institute, argues that if you do not measure the epidemic by the fatality rate but rather by the number of deaths in relation to the number of infections, then there is little difference between Sweden and Denmark. With an infection rate of 6 percent in Sweden, the fatality rate is about 0.6 percent. In Denmark, the infection rate is about 1.0 percent and the fatality rate 0.8 percent. That is not necessarily the most significant statistic, says Søren Riis Paludan, Professor of Biomedicine at Aarhus University. It indicates that Sweden has been as good as Denmark in treating people who have become infected, but not whether not it has been successful in containing the epidemic.

Tegnell has maintained that it will be years before one can judge what strategy is best, and he thinks there may be not be large differences between the results in various countries. Does he have a serious case of confirmation bias or will he prove correct?

(No post tomorrow. Back on Thursday.)

Coronavirus DK: Criminals exploit the crisis

The Danish government’s decision to disburse the funds in the economic relief package quickly has enabled some businesses to collect money under fraudulent pretenses (DK). That was reported on Thursday by the Danish State Prosecutor for Serious Economic and International Crime, which is usually referred to by its Danish abbreviation, SØIK. The funds were intended to pay employees' salaries while they could not work and to compensate firms for operating expenses. The agency suspects that more than DKK 7 million (about $1 million) was disbursed unnecessarily, and it has thus far recovered about DKK 670,000 (about $70,000). The Secretariat for Money Laundering has received 133 referrals from banks on possible swindling with relief funds. 

The industry association for small and medium-sized businesses fears that the reports may have consequences for its member firms, which are most in need of relief funds but which also have fewer resources than larger firms to satisfy the increasing requirements for documentation and control of the disbursements. The association had requested a quick release of the funds because many small firms were in danger of going bankrupt.

Whistleblowers wanted

On Wednesday, Minister for Business Simon Kollerup announced that the government, along with almost all the other parliamentary parties, passed a bill to prevent such fraud (DK). The bill includes a whistleblower program that will make it easier for employees and others to report the abuse of relief funds. Fraud related to the aid package is subject to much higher penalties than usual.

Don’t talk to strangers

At the lower end of the crime scale, there have also been reports of thieves using the coronavirus crisis as an excuse (DK) gain entry into people’s homes. For example, four men and a woman were convicted of robbery for threatening to commit violent acts against a couple in their eighties in the municipality of Hvidovre. They are also subject to higher than usual sanctions because their crime involved exploiting the pandemic. 

Earlier a woman retiree in southern Jutland received a visit from two men in plastic outfits and masks (DK) who said they were from the Health Authority. She didn’t let them in, and when she lifted her phone to show that she would call the police, they ran off. The police warn that trick-thieves exploit the Danes’ high level of trust in one another and in the authorities and that people should be skeptical and ask for identification in such situations.

The most vulnerable victims

There are also suspicions of a worse sort of crime that is not being reported (DK) to the usual degree because of conditions during the lockdown. The number of reports of sexual assault against children has fallen sharply in the past two months. Cases of rape and incest are down 60 percent, and cases of other violence against children are down 42 percent. The likely reason is that children have not been in school regularly and their teachers have not had the opportunity to observe signs of abuse.

This has led Astrid Krag, the Minister of Social Affairs and the Interior, and Pernille Rosenkrantz-Theil, the Minister of Children and Education, to send a letter to schools and recreation centers urging the teachers and staff to be attentive to such developments. Spokespersons for the police and Save the Children concurred that the lockdown is probably the reason for the drop in the reports.

The happiest convicts in the world

The new complex is located outside a town of about 2,000 on a quiet rural landscape surrounded by small farms and clumps of woods. It has a gym with a beautiful huge mural of a seascape commissioned from a well-known painter. In the square at the center, where the residents mix freely with the staff, there is a school, a library, a grocer and recreation facilities such as a sound studio. The church and prayer room are bright, modern and inviting. There is a football field and workshops. The 140 square-foot private rooms each have a toilet, shower, refrigerator, TV and natural light from two sides, including a floor-to-ceiling window with a view of a lawn or a kitchen garden. They are situated around shared kitchens and common areas.

What is it, a college campus, a retreat center, a luxury hotel, a wellness spa? No, it’s Storstrøm Fængsel, the world’s newest maximum-security prison, which opened on September 25 on the island of Falster, Denmark. The objective was to make it resemble a village and ordinary life so that it is easier for the inmates to adapt to the outside world when they leave. Prisons in Scandinavia have been tending in this direction since around the 1970s. The Halden prison in Norway is perhaps the best-known example of architectural design based on the “normality principle.” Storstrøm Prison is intended to rival it in that regard. According to the Berlingske Tidende daily, it is intended to be “the most humane prison in the world” (DK). The officials behind the project believe that the architecture helps  to resocialize criminals, some of whom have never experienced a normal daily life.

It takes a village

Security has not been compromised, prison officials insist. There are a 20-foot wall as well as a fence around the entire complex and a separate locked high-security section. The open areas are covered by 300 cameras, and there are user-friendly electronic communications between the residential units and guards. The 250 inmates are divided into units of 54, and with the push of a button, they can be further locked down into small units about four to seven inmates. The smaller units make it easier for the staff, which also numbers about 250, to work with the convicts and easier to avoid problems that could arise from gang rivalries. The officials emphasize that contact between staff and convicts is important in identifying signs of radicalization. There has also been much interest from prison guards (DK) who want to work at the state-of-the-art facility.

From panopticon to entertainment center

An American prison guard who visited a few years ago was reportedly shocked at the planned conditions: “Prisoners shouldn’t be coddled.” Will Romanian pickpockets be tempted to come to Denmark and get themselves caught in order to get off the streets in the winter? The prison officials don’t think so. The main thing is that they are locked up and deprived of their cell phones. Nobody wants that. Taxpayers also ask why they should all have TVs? Because it keeps them occupied. Why should they have private toilets and baths? It saves money because guards don’t have to accompany them down a hall and avoids conflicts with other inmates.

The architects maintain that the buildings and facilities won’t make life easy for the inhabitants. Prisons are always rough environments. They note that prisons from the mid-19^th century were criticized for being too comfortable because they had toilets and electricity, which many criminals weren’t used to. Prisons should be built to last for a hundred years. According to the lead architect, Mads Mandrup Hansen of the C.F. Møller firm, who has presented the design at conferences around the world (DK), the idea is to create a framework for positive coexistence (the word he used was fælleskab, which usually connotes fellowship and community), but the architecture can’t do that by itself.

Evidence-based punishment?

Sounds good in theory, but does this bleeding-heart, rehab approach work and help make Denmark the happiest country in the world? Can a happy country afford to show compassion toward its less fortunate delinquents, and do comfortable convicts make law-abiding if not decidedly happy citizens afterward? What do the data on the recidivism rate for similar prisons say? There’s little information about that in all the coverage of the impressive new facility.

The crime rate is relatively low in Scandinavia, especially the violent crime rate. But prison design and policies are hardly the only factors in that. There must be a body of literature on the effects of various methods of incarceration, so it’s a little odd that it’s never mentioned. In any case, the new joint may get a good test because after a rash of gang-war shootings in Copenhagen in recent months, many dangerous characters who could use effective treatment have been arrested and jailed.

In contrast, the US, leaning back toward the eye-for-an-eye school under the new administration, recently voted against a UN resolution condemning the death penalty for behavior such as adultery, gay sex and blasphemy.

Unsafe streets

In the past two months, Wonderful Copenhagen has seen a rash of shootings – around 25. They are often drive-by shootings by masked young men on mopeds that are believed to be related to gang conflicts. Many have taken place in Nørrebro and northwest Copenhagen, districts with high concentrations of immigrants and poverty. The police have increased their presence in the area and introduced stricter policies allowing them to stop and search suspicious figures. Nevertheless, the violence has increased in the past week, with at least one shooting every day.

This is unusual. Such shooting sprees may occur every couple of years when skirmishes over gang turf heat up, but they are not a typical phenomenon in Copenhagen and elsewhere in Denmark. No one has been killed in this latest series of attacks, although some of the victims were in critical condition. People have been hit only in about half the cases. But one factor that has increased the concern among neighborhood residents is that some of the victims have been random passersby with no connection to the gangs involved. The police have issued warnings to young men who may be on the streets in these areas. The US embassy even sent out a warning to American citizens to take extra care when in the neighborhoods.

Sharing the blame

On Monday evening, a group of residents of the area held a torchlit march to protest these developments and take back control of their streets. They complain that the police aren’t doing enough to the prevent the violence. The police, in turn, complain that they do not have enough staffing to do an adequate job, partly because of their duties guarding the border since immigration rules have been made stricter. And the Minister of Justice, Søren Pape Poulsen of the Conservative Party, introduced a new package intended to curb the violence. The measures include efforts to prevent recruitment to gangs, increasing resources to track digital clues to gang activity, and the registration of people who wear bullet-proof vests.

The point is not that Copenhagen is a violent and dangerous place but that this trend is atypical. The crime rate in Denmark is relatively low. In 2015, the intentional homicide rate in Denmark was 0.99 per 100,000 inhabitants. In comparison, in the US, it was nearly five times as high, at 4.88.  Gun ownership is uncommon except among hunters, who need licenses; people don’t own firearms for protection. The prison population is small. Multiple murders of the type that occur in the US every week are unheard of. The local police forces aren’t militarized either, and there is nothing resembling the practice of civil forfeiture in the US. Aside from isolated incidents, most violent crimes involve gangs and their drug trade.

Reefer madness

And as far as I understand, most of the drug trade involves hashish, which raises another issue that seems curiously missing from the discussion of the current wave of violence. Considering Denmark’s reputation for being progressive in public policy, the country is curiously out of step with the trend toward cannabis decriminalization not only in the US but also in much of Western Europe. Drug trade used to be centered on the Freetown Christiania district across the canal from downtown Copenhagen. A crackdown there in 2012 introduced draconian penalties for users as well as dealers. For example, for the first offense, drivers who show traces of cannabis that may have come from consumption a week before lose their driver’s license for three years and get a fine of 4 percent of their gross salary. The result of the concerted effort in Christiania was that the trade spread to other areas in Copenhagen, as the police had predicted it would.

The mayor of Copenhagen, Social Democrat Frank Jensen, and the left-leaning city council, have proposed legalizing cannabis on a trial basis on a few occasions, primarily for the purpose of controlling distribution and reducing violent crime. Every time, the proposal was rejected by the right-wing parties and Social Democrats representing a large majority in Parliament. There is a trial project to allow medical marijuana, and the population is roughly evenly divided on the issue of legalization. But among polite society, weed is still associated with social dysfunction and legalization is considered encouragement. In all the alarm about the recent spate of shootings, I haven’t noticed any mention of the decriminalization option. The violence may subside again, but it will probably recur as long as the country remains a holdout in the futile war on drugs.