Coronavirus DK: Second wave takes its toll on social activity

Yesterday, Monday, December 7, the Danish government announced a new set of restrictions for the capital region and the two other largest cities. It was the day that the restrictions announced last week took effect and also the first day with more than 2,000 new infections. The State Serum Institute had presented a projection (DK) showing that, if nothing were done, the healthcare system could come under pressure before Christmas, with more than 4,000 daily infections and 500 hospitalizations. Increasing the tracing activity wouldn’t be sufficient to stop the spread from accelerating. The situation could be worse than in the spring, the report said, since there could be a shortage of healthcare staff because of a greater emphasis on quarantining people who are exposed to the virus. 

Back to takeout for urban eateries. Photo: Oscar Scott Carl © Scanpix.

These are the latest measures (DK), which apply from Wednesday, December 9, to January 3:

• Thirty-eight municipalities, with a total of 2.8 million residents – almost half the country – will be partially locked down.
• Restaurants and bars may not serve guests; they can offer takeout.
• Theaters, concert halls, museums, libraries and other public buildings are closed.
• Schools and universities from the fifth grade upwards must operate online; daycare centers will stay open.
• Civil servants are to work at home as much as possible.
• Indoor sports and other recreational activities are closed; professional sports events can continue, with a limit of 500 spectators.
• People in the affected municipalities should comply with these restrictions generally and not travel to other regions in order to participate in the banned activities.
• Families should limit Christmas gatherings to ten people.

The usual debate
Two virologists who have often been consulted about the pandemic disagree about the decision (DK). Søren Riis Paludan from Aarhus University thinks that the government should have waited to implement the restrictions until December 20, when the country normally closes down partially for the holidays, because of the high costs for education and the economy. 

On the other hand, Allan Randrup Thomsen of the University of Copenhagen says the new restrictions should have been included in the policies announced last week. He believes that recent half-measures such as closing bars and restaurants at 10 p.m. have not worked because people simply adjust their behavior, by going out earlier, for example. The researchers do agree, however, that Christmas traditions pose an increased threat of infection and that the course of the pandemic depends on people taking responsibility themselves for minimizing the dangers. 

Good news for country inns
Economists are sounding the alarm (DK) that, because of the new measures, business activity will get off to a slow start in 2021, when it was supposed to recover. Jeppe Juul Borre from Arbejdernes Landsbank notes that 60 percent of the country’s hospitality industry, which has already been the hardest hit by the pandemic, lies in the affected municipalities. He has reduced his GDP estimate for this year and warns that unemployment could rebound after falling over the summer.

There will always be arguments on both sides. Some political parties are criticizing the government (DK) for waiting too long to act, and some restaurants outside the cities are reporting a surge in reservations (DK) from people in the lockdown areas.

Coronavirus DK: Reclaiming "hygge"

Some people have become familiar with the Danish concept of hygge in the past several years when reading explanations for Denmark’s top ranking in the international happiness surveys. It refers to a special feeling of comfortable conviviality among family and friends. The adjective hyggelig is translated as “cozy.” For many people who enjoy visiting their local pubs and cafes regularly, hygge has been one of the main things they have missed since the lockdown went into effect more than two months ago.

Where everybody knows your name

Yesterday restaurants, cafes and bars were open for business again. For some of the regulars at the local pubs (DK) it was a great relief to be able to sit down in a familiar booth and toast to a reunion with their friends. Some retirees showed up soon after the place opened at 10 a.m. and started off with a cup of coffee. “It’s been pure hell psychologically,” said one. “I hadn’t smoked in a year and a half, but now I started again. Shit-crisis.”

“It’s been terrible not to have anyone to pester, tease, exchange banter and have fun with,” said another.

The bartender isn’t worried about getting infected any more than in other places. He’s just happy to be back in his daily routine. “The only positive thing about it was that I cleaned up the entire apartment. All the drawers, closets, papers. . . . You had to make use of the time, otherwise it would have been fucking boring to stay home.”

Sanitized camaraderie

The local hangout might not look quite the same. The tables are farther apart. Bottles of hand sanitizer stand on all of them. There are no stools by the bar. Some bars have set up plexiglas barriers that people have become familiar with at supermarkets and kiosks. The owners set a limit on the number of patrons so that there are at least two square meters per person, but they don’t want to have to monitor whether they all keep one meter away from one another. People ask about the rules. “If you bring a dog, does it count toward the limit of ten in a group?” 

The police were checking (DK) that the establishments followed the guidelines on limiting the number of guests and positioning the tables. They needed to clarify the rules in only a few cases, and they didn’t issue any fines. They believe people have a good understanding of social distancing principles by now. The turnout yesterday might also have been limited because the weather wasn’t favorable for sitting outdoors and some people decided to wait before dining out again.

Many small businesses were able to survive because they received aid from the government to cover employees’ wages and operating expenses. But it will still be a struggle for venues that depend on foreign tourists, meetings, conferences and other large events. Restaurants may not stay open after midnight.

Middle schools and libraries

Pupils in the upper grades also returned to school (DK), including boarding schools where many kids spend ninth or tenth grade. They were happy to see their friends again, but it felt strange not to be able to hug them. They were divided into groups of eight that they can come close to and must keep clear of the others, even boyfriends and girlfriends. Other people were happy to be able to visit their neighborhood library branch again. “I didn’t know what to read,” said one visitor. “I read all the murder mysteries and other things. I picked up old books again.” In this stage of the lockdown exit, libraries are open only for picking up and returning books; people can’t sit in the reading rooms yet. But they’re getting a reminder of life B.C.: Before Coronavirus.

Coronavirus DK: New meaning to the phrase “spitting distance”

Today shopping centers in Denmark can reopen and people can begin to participate in outdoor sports and other activities. In preparation for phase 2 of the relaxation of pandemic restrictions, the Health Authority yesterday announced an adjustment in its recommendations on hygiene. The most important change is that it will be sufficient for people to keep a distance of one meter (DK) from one another instead of two meters. In reducing the distance, it is falling in line with the guidelines from the WHO and neighboring countries. It still recommends two meters’ distance in situations such as group singing in churches, where there is a heightened risk of infection, and from people in a high-risk group, such as the elderly. The Health Authority is maintaining almost all of its previous guidelines.

Søren Bostrøm (DK), head of the agency, stresses that good hygiene, such as washing hands, using sanitizer and cleaning frequently touched surfaces, is more important than distancing. The other change mentioned in the press release is the lifting of objection to buffets, which apparently applied mainly to schools, since restaurants will not reopen until May 18. Bostrøm says the agency wants to implement sustainable solutions that balance effectiveness and convenience, and that certain measures, such as the availability of santizer in public places, will be with us for a long time. The recommendations will be adjusted gradually as various segments of society and the economy resume activities.

A “dangerous experiment”

Some doctors and researchers are in favor of the change and do not believe that it will result in many additional infections. But of course not all. Allan Randrup Thomsen, Professor of Virology at University of Copenhagen, who is one of the most frequently consulted observers of the pandemic management, calls the change “a dangerous experiment” (DK). In ordinary speech, says Randrup Thomsen, most droplets from the breath fall to the earth within one meter’s distance, but in louder speech they go further. He would maintain a distance of at least 1.5 meters. 

The difference between one and meters is not trivial when it comes to determining how many pupils can be together in a classroom and how many customers a restaurant can serve. The change will mean that additional children will be able to attend school for a full day and cafes will have a better chance of turning a profit. The issue of buffets is similar. The food served in buffets is not dangerous, says Jan Pravsgaard Christensen, Professor at the University of Copenhagen’s Institute for Immunology and Mikrobiology. What matters is that people do not crowd together in lines and follow the other recommendations on hygiene.

No carrot without a stick

As I mentioned yesterday, upon the further relaxation of restrictions, the government will also issue a formal prohibition against reopening and large gatherings for organizations that are not allowed to resume activities until phase 3 or 4. The ban, which applies to zoos, museums, fitness centers and boarding schools, was announced yesterday by Justice Minister Nick Hækkerup. If an organization with more than 50 people violates the ban, it will be subject to fines (DK) ranging from DKK 40,000 ($5,700) in the first instance to DKK 150,000 ($21,500) in the third. The police will also have the option of closing the business or organization. 

The Copenhagen Zoo and the ARoS art museum in Aarhus had mentioned the possibility of opening despite the general guidelines against it. Erlend Høyersten, the director of ARoS, called the decision “absurd and illogical” (DK). Museums do not pose a higher risk of infection than shopping centers, says Høyersten, and culture should not be assigned a lower priority than commerce in some kind of politics of symbolism. Justice Minister Hækkerup denies that there is any politics of symbolism at play and emphasizes that various institutions needed to be reopened gradually and middle schools, for example, were considered more important than museums by all the parliamentary parties. 

Coronavirus DK: Not so fast – it’s not over yet

After being closed for about two months, shopping centers are preparing to open (DK) tomorrow. They are setting up signs explaining the rules of conduct and bottles of hand sanitizer. They are closing lounges and children’s playrooms. Security guards and customer counters will be posted at the doors to make sure that customers maintain a distance from one another. Vibeke Qvist, the head of the Frederiksberg Center Association in Copenhagen, does not expect a large number of customers at first, but she and the shop owners are happy to get started again. 

The government does not want people to think that the lockdown is over and to let things get out of control, however. Along with the resumption of some activities in phase 2, it is also issuing a formal prohibition against activities (DK) that have not yet been approved for reopening. The ban will be enforced by the police, and violations will be subject to penalties, says Minister of Justice Nick Hækkerup. Certain zoos and museums have raised the possibility of opening before they are scheduled to in phase 3 on June 8. Thus far, there has been no official prohibition, and that has led to some confusion at times, for example when a cabinet minister informally disapproved of IKEA’s reopening although it was perfectly legal. Hækkerup sympathizes with organizations that must wait longer to open, but explains that prioritization is necessary in order to maintain control of the spread of the infections.

No jumping the gun

To remind people of the timetable, the police are tweeting about enforcing violations. Yesterday evening in Jutland, two restaurants were charged (DK) with serving food and drinks at outdoor tables. Restaurants and cafes are not scheduled to reopen until May 18. In another Jutland town, 14 people were caught congregating (DK) in a parking lot. Four got away, but ten were charged with exceeding the limit on gatherings.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs extended its advisory against unnecessary foreign travel (DK) until May 31. Jeppe Kofod, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, says that he understands people want to travel and are worried about their summer vacation plans but that conditions under the pandemic do not permit free travel yet. Airlines’ business has suffered greatly during the crisis. In April, the number of passengers on SAS flights fell 95 percent from the level in 2019.

Infections falling despite reopening

SSI, the agency responsible for preparedness against infectious diseases, reported a decline in the reproduction rate (DK), or R0, which measures the average number of people infected by an infected person, despite the first relaxations of the lockdown restrictions. The announcement, which was made in an email response to the Ritzau agency, did not specify the latest measurement. The rate had fallen to 0.6 in mid-April and then, after the first phase of the reopening, had risen back to 0.9 on April 30. The rate is used in the government’s decisions about the relaxation of pandemic restrictions. The SSI cautioned that it is subject to a margin of error and that a new measurement would be made in the coming week.

The wonders of socialism

Readers have referred me to a Friday NY Times column by Nicholas Kristof, “McDonald’s Workers in Denmark Pity Us.” Kristof gives a good overview of the advantages of Denmark’s social democracy, which is derided by some American politicians as “socialism” even while conditions in the US labor market during the pandemic deteriorate at an alarming  pace.

Coronavirus DK: Full reopening timetable unveiled

Soon after the government announced its plan for phase 2 of the reopening of the economy, as reported yesterday, it finished the outline for phases 3 and 4. Phase 3, which begins on June 8, will cover museums, theaters, outdoor amusement parks, adult education and indoor sports; if the virus remains under control, it will also allow greater physical presence in public workplaces, including the public broadcasters. The limit on gatherings will increase from ten to 50. Phase 4, which begins in early August, covers nightclubs, gyms, swimming pools and universities. No date was set for reopening the borders, an important objective for some of the opposition parties. A decision is expected by June 1.

Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said that the ambitious schedule was made possible by the exemplary behavior of the Danish people in adhering the Health Authority’s guidelines and it was also conditional on the continuation of an acceptable trend in the number of hospitalizations and deaths. The announcement mentions the likelihood of an increase in those figures and stipulates that the timetable depends on the studies made by the Health Authority before the beginning of the next phases.

Overview in English

The English-language daily The Local has coverage of the timetable; the debate over the border opening; the Health Ministry’s report that laid the basis for the plan; the negotiations among the parties, including a useful infographic comparing the lockdown restrictions in the three Scandinavian countries; and interviews with two philosophers on the ethics of lifting the restrictions.

The negotiations on the reopening (DK) of various elements were reported to be difficult at times. There were disagreements on which organizations should resume activities on the basis of the relative risk of infection and their economic importance. Certain parties favored quick normalization, and others emphasized safety; some argued for reopening institutions in different regions on different dates. Alex Vanopslagh, leader of the Liberal Alliance Party, would have preferred a much quicker relaxation of restrictions but noted that it will proceed sooner than in the original plan presented to the other parties by the prime minister. Other parties leaders stressed the need for compromise and commended the possibility of adjusting the plans according to future reports on the status of the pandemic by the Health Ministry.

Social distancing while shopping and dining

The organizations that are about to open have begun making preparations. Department stores (DK), for example, have received a set of guidelines. They stipulate four square meters per person besides the two meters’ distance between persons. They require regular cleaning and disinfection of cashiers’ stations and other contact surfaces and prohibit clearance sales and other special offers that can result in lines and crowding. The reception of the plan by restaurant owners (DK) was mixed. Many are uncertain how much space they must allow for customers and whether they will be able to operate profitably. The industry spokesperson, Katia Østergaard, argues that hotels should receive additional economic aid because they have lost 90 percent of their revenues.

Coronavirus first appeared in France?

Finally, a report that does not yet seem to have penetrated mainstream American news: Doctors in Colmar, France, have found signs of the infection in lung scans from November 16, 2019 (DK); that is, one day before the first case was registered in China. If it’s not fake news, it would throw the question of the pandemic’s origins further in doubt. The region in question was apparently frequented by Chinese tourists, and a Chinese reality TV show was produced there. When you search for an English-language report, you find one on CGTN.com, the “Chinese Global Television Network,” and another on GlobalDomainNews.com, a site presented in very broken English based in "Fairview Kersey, PA." Kersey, an unincorporated town in Fox Township, PA, has a population of 937, a "Fairview Road" and a "PROMISS NEVER TO SPAM." Stay tuned.

Coronavirus DK: Ready for phase 2 of the reopening

On Thursday, May 9, the day before the Great Prayer Day holiday, the government and the other parties reached an agreement on the next phase of the reopening (DK), which will take pace in two stages. On Monday, May 11, shops, shopping centers, professional sports, club sports and other clubs may resume activities. On May 18, restaurants, bars, libraries, middle schools and other youth activities, churches, zoos, and critical public institutions such as the military and the Work Environment offices may open. Some organizations that may not open yet, even though some parties wanted them to, are theaters, boarding schools, fitness centers, night clubs, higher educational institutions and museums. Denmark’s borders will remain closed until at least June 1.

All the reopenings are subject to the Health Authority’s special conditions and guidelines. For example, spectators will not be able to attend professional sports events. Amateur sports must take place outdoors and are still limited to groups of ten persons. Restaurants must maintain a distance between patrons. Libraries will be open only for lending and returns. Only zoos where visitors can remain in their cars may open. All the activities must continue to adhere to the general guidelines on social distancing, good hygiene and use of protective equipment. The government will continue to pursue an aggressive policy of testing, tracing, isolation of infected persons, and systematic spot checks at regular intervals. The parties will negotiate the partial phasing out of the aid package for businesses that reopen.

Disagreement on border and zoos

All the parties agreed on the plan, although each of them gave priority to certain aspects and some weren’t satisfied with the details (DK). The right-wing parties were generally pleased that additional businesses could open, while the left-wing parties emphasized the resumption of middle schools and other youth activities. The Social Liberals and the Conservative Party wanted to open the border. One MP from the Liberal Party, the largest opposition party, said the agreement was too cautious (DK) and wanted to open open zoos and museums and to repeal the ten-person limit on gatherings. The director of the Copenhagen Zoo (DK) was very disappointed that it wouldn’t open for at least a month. Negotiations on the details were reported to be difficult, and several parties disliked the way the Mette Frederiksen announced and “took credit for” the impending agreement on Wednesday before the specifics had been ironed out.

Uncertain outlook for restaurants

Katia Østergaard, the director of Horesta, the industry association for restaurants, hotels and tourism (DK), said that the guidelines according to which its members must operate were not clear and would determine whether or not their operations could be profitable. Østergaard suggested that the authorities follow the policies in effect in Norway. In Denmark, there are physical distancing requirements of two meters generally and four square meters in shops; in Norway, the requirements are half that size. The rules will determine how soon restaurants and cafes will be ready to open, and some will not be able to under the current conditions. Since March, more than 200 restaurants have gone bankrupt, and 11,000 employees in the industry have been laid off.

Economic gains versus infection risk

The plan was based on two expert reports. A report from SSI (DK), the agency for preparedness against infectious diseases, identified most of the activities that were included in Phase 2 as the “basic set” and concluded that the virus could be kept under control and would die out if they resumed operations; that is, reproductive rate of virus could be held under 1.0. The basic set did not include middle schools and restaurants. The report warned that because the overall spread of the infection was low, there was a risk of a second wave if people do not continue to follow the general guidelines on social distancing and good hygiene.

The second report was prepared by three economists. Its main purpose was to determine what activities would have the most beneficial effect on the economy (DK) if they resumed. The conclusion was service businesses, shopping centers, restaurants and cafes. It was a difficult balancing act to select activities that would have the strong economic effect while entailing relatively low risk of infection, said Torben Andersen of Aarhus University, one of the economists on the committee. Fitness centers, for example, would have to wait to reopen because they pose a rather large risk without having great economic significance.

Coronavirus DK: Shaming, blaming and complaining

A couple of days ago I reported that Kåre Mølbak of SSI, the agency responsible for preparedness for infectious diseases, scolded teenagers for not following social distancing guidelines. Mølbak cited test statistics showing that the number of infections in that age group had doubled over a few weeks. Since then, Mølbak has been criticized (DK) by representatives of several political parties for shaming a particular segment of the population, for not delivering the statistics in question to the MPs, and for making misleading comparisons between the test results in the two periods. 

The politicians, including Stinus Lindgren, the healthcare spokesperson for the Social Liberal Party, note that the testing policy changed had changed between the two periods that Mølbak cited, with the addition of tests for people with only mild sympoms. So they want to know whether the change in the results was owing to an actual rise in the number of infections or the change in testing. They have requested the statistics but have not received them. The information is relevant for the parties’ negotiations on the next phase of the relaxation of the lockdown because high schools are still closed and the SSI has ranked them in the medium-risk category.

Too easy a target?

Peder Hvelplund of the Red-Green Party also criticizes the practice of mixing healthcare research and policy. Reproving a group of citizens is a political act, and it should be based on adequate documentation of the problem. “It is foolish to shame the young (DK),” said Jakob Mark, the parliamentary group leader for the Socialist People’s Party. “The infection statistics show that the percentage of young people who are infected is declining.” 

It is sometimes unclear whether politicians or journalists are referring to the percentage of infections among those tested or among the total number of infections. Teenagers still represent a very small portion of infected persons, but if they are more likely to be asymptomatic and not develop Covid-19, that does not reduce the risk that they may infect others while they are infected. None of the politicians quoted say that the accusations were unwarranted. On the basis of reports of the gatherings the week before in the Islands Brygge waterfront area as well as my own informal observations, they are generally accurate, with the proviso that the behavior of those in their twenties may not be much different.

Tourism in the plague year

Frank Jensen, the Mayor of Copenhagen, wants to open restaurants and cafes soon (DK) for outdoor service if Denmark is to make a success of the summer tourist season. Jensen has invited the mayors of the country’s six largest cities to a meeting to plan a reopening of the tourism industry. He said that in Copenhagen alone the industry will lose DKK 4.7 billion ($670 million) in revenues in March, April and May. Jensen notes that restaurants must take measures to ensure that social distancing guidelines are followed, for example by using the space in parking lots to keep patrons apart.

Restaurants have been open in Sweden throughout the pandemic. Oslo, which has allowed restaurants to operate without serving alcohol, will lift the ban on alcohol on May 6. That will make Copenhagen the only Scandinavian capital where restaurants are closed and put it at a disadvantage in attracting tourists. On Friday, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said that she expects the next phase of the lockdown exit to proceed on May 10 but did not specify what types of businesses and organizations would be allowed to open.