On Monday, Berlingske (DK), the Danish daily, reported that figures presented by Statens Serum Institute in March on the spread of the coronavirus were incorrect. On March 30, SSI announced that in the first 12 days of the lockdown the reproduction rate, R0, had fallen from 2.6 to 1.4. On the basis of the data available at the time, the actual levels were 2.1 to 1.3. Berlingske called the error an ”exaggeration” (DK) of both the danger of the virus and the improvement that took place after the government’s lockdown. SSI acknowledged the mistake, which it explained by saying that the figures did not include people who had been infected abroad. The other statistics released by SSI apparently did include those persons. Upon the release of the figures, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen had announced that the country had succeeded in delaying the spread of the virus and that there were grounds for cautious optimism.
Did the mistake influence the strategy?
Allan Randrup Thomsen, Professor of Experimental Virology at University of Copenhagen, says it was a serious error. On the basis of the data available today, the figures for the period in question are even lower, showing a drop from 1.5 to 1.3. Jan Pravsgaard Christensen, Professor at the Institute for Immunology and Microbiology at University of Copenhagen, says that if the correct figures had been released on March 30, the lockdown might not have been so drastic. But he added that any reproduction rate above 1.0 indicated an accelerating spread of infections, so if the lockdown had not been as strict, the result might have been a longer lockdown period. SSI rejected the description of the figures as misleading.
Yesterday Minister of Health Magnus Heunicke responded (DK) to the report. He said that the error was irritating but that it was a minor “editorial error.” He maintained that the number of hospitalizations in early March was rising sharply and that government’s lockdown was a necessary step to control the crisis.
Independent review
In a related development that may not have stemmed directly from the controversy about the infection figures, a parliamentary majority proposed an independent evaluation (DK) of the government’s handling of the pandemic from the beginning of the year. The Social Liberal Party, which supports the Social Democratic administration, joined four right-wing opposition parties in calling for the appointment of a committee of five persons with diverse expertise who would be given access to all the government’s and the relevant agencies’ documents during the period. The faction stressed the importance of such an evaluation’s being based in Parliament rather than the administration.
“When you place the entire society on hold, people have a right to know afterward whether it was done on the basis of the correct assumptions,” said Peter Skaarup of the Danish People’s Party. It would be unusual that such an investigation would be managed by Parliament rather than by one of the ministries, but the deviation is warranted, says Mai Mercado of the Conservative Party: “At a time when Parliament has been sidelined, it is very important that Parliament takes charge of determining the model of the evaluation.”
Reopening the rest of country
The administration has invited the other party leaders to a meeting today to discuss the next steps (DK) in the relaxation of the lockdown restrictions. The negotiations will be based on the latest figures from SSI, which the administration expects to receive this morning and to pass on to the party leaders “as quickly as possible.”
Yesterday, SSI, the agency responsible for preparedness for infectious diseases, reported that the reproduction rate, R0, had fallen in the month of April (DK) from 0.9 to 0.7. The figure represents the average number of persons who are infected by a single infected person. If the level is below 1.0, the spread of the infection is declining. The drop has thus occurred since the first phase of the reopening began, with the return to school of children in the lowest classes and the opening of service and professional businesses. That shows that people have been conscientious about following the Health Authority’s guidelines, says Tyra Grove Krause of SSI.
Grove Krause cautions that the figure is an estimate that is more useful as an indication of the direction of the spread of the infection than a precise measure. The choice of criteria used affect the result. The SSI’s figure is based on the number of hospitalizations, not the number of persons who test positive for the coronavirus, and it assumes that it takes an average of 4.7 days for one person to infect another. The favorable results presumably influenced the Health Authority’s recommendations on lowering the recommended physical distancing from two meters to one and the reopening additional businesses and other organizations.
Is one meter enough?
On the day after the Health Authority announced the reduction of the guideline on physical distancing, spokespersons from virtually all of the political parties in Parliament were raising questions about it. Some were surprised that this key recommendation was changed suddenly and without consultation with the other parties after several of them had inquired about it earlier and received no clear answer. Some questioned whether it was safe. Most of them, like Liselotte Blixt of the Danish People’s Party, asked whether the decision was based on healthcare considerations (DK) or practical exigencies, implying that the latter might have weighed too heavily. If it wasn’t necessary to keep two meters’ distance from one another for the past three months, they asked, then why did we do it? Supermarkets have placed tape on the floor to show customers where to stand in line, and hairdressers have moved their chairs apart. Other party leaders criticized the way the decision was made (DK) without their input.
When asked about the change, Søren Brostrøm, the head of the Health Authority, said that it was sound from a healthcare perspective and that the Authority also considered the practical ramifications because the guidelines must be sustainable. He said it consulted other countries’ policies and experience. The WHO recommends a distance of one meter, which is the policy in Norway, where there has been a very small number of infections; Germany and the Netherlands require 1.5 meters’ distance. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen had previously said that the government deferred to the Health Authority on such decisions and that the guidelines could change.
Democracy in action
What all the spokespersons’ comments had in common was that none of them disagreed with the decision itself. Indeed, most of the parties had been arguing strongly for a further relaxation of restrictions. This discussion seems characteristic of the Danish style of political debate. The dissenters are well aware that the pandemic is under control and that Frederiksen’s and Bostrøm’s handling of the crisis has been viewed favorably by the public. The hospitals are not overwhelmed; there are no mass graves, massive job layoffs, long lines for food banks, or dangerous recommendations to drink disinfectants. Yet they feel an obligation to put in their two cents in order to show their constituencies that they still exist and are keeping an eye on developments.
After being closed for about two months, shopping centers are preparing to open (DK) tomorrow. They are setting up signs explaining the rules of conduct and bottles of hand sanitizer. They are closing lounges and children’s playrooms. Security guards and customer counters will be posted at the doors to make sure that customers maintain a distance from one another. Vibeke Qvist, the head of the Frederiksberg Center Association in Copenhagen, does not expect a large number of customers at first, but she and the shop owners are happy to get started again.
The government does not want people to think that the lockdown is over and to let things get out of control, however. Along with the resumption of some activities in phase 2, it is also issuing a formal prohibition against activities (DK) that have not yet been approved for reopening. The ban will be enforced by the police, and violations will be subject to penalties, says Minister of Justice Nick Hækkerup. Certain zoos and museums have raised the possibility of opening before they are scheduled to in phase 3 on June 8. Thus far, there has been no official prohibition, and that has led to some confusion at times, for example when a cabinet minister informally disapproved of IKEA’s reopening although it was perfectly legal. Hækkerup sympathizes with organizations that must wait longer to open, but explains that prioritization is necessary in order to maintain control of the spread of the infections.
No jumping the gun
To remind people of the timetable, the police are tweeting about enforcing violations. Yesterday evening in Jutland, two restaurants were charged (DK) with serving food and drinks at outdoor tables. Restaurants and cafes are not scheduled to reopen until May 18. In another Jutland town, 14 people were caught congregating (DK) in a parking lot. Four got away, but ten were charged with exceeding the limit on gatherings.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs extended its advisory against unnecessary foreign travel (DK) until May 31. Jeppe Kofod, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, says that he understands people want to travel and are worried about their summer vacation plans but that conditions under the pandemic do not permit free travel yet. Airlines’ business has suffered greatly during the crisis. In April, the number of passengers on SAS flights fell 95 percent from the level in 2019.
Infections falling despite reopening
SSI, the agency responsible for preparedness against infectious diseases, reported a decline in the reproduction rate (DK), or R0, which measures the average number of people infected by an infected person, despite the first relaxations of the lockdown restrictions. The announcement, which was made in an email response to the Ritzau agency, did not specify the latest measurement. The rate had fallen to 0.6 in mid-April and then, after the first phase of the reopening, had risen back to 0.9 on April 30. The rate is used in the government’s decisions about the relaxation of pandemic restrictions. The SSI cautioned that it is subject to a margin of error and that a new measurement would be made in the coming week.
The wonders of socialism
Readers have referred me to a Friday NY Times column by Nicholas Kristof, “McDonald’s Workers in Denmark Pity Us.” Kristof gives a good overview of the advantages of Denmark’s social democracy, which is derided by some American politicians as “socialism” even while conditions in the US labor market during the pandemic deteriorate at an alarming pace.
The traditional May Day gatherings were canceled and the speeches by left-wing leaders were sent remotely. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen of the Social Democrats held her speech at the Workers Museum in Copehagen and used the occasion to announce the government’s first large employment project (DK). It will spend around DKK 4.5 billion ($650 million) to renovate subsidized housing units. The project will be “fair, economically sensible, and green,” said Frederiksen. It will improve living conditions for renters, provide jobs for people who have lost them during the crisis, and bring the buildings up to environmentally sound standards, for example by replacing old oil furnaces. The initiative is to be seen as signalling a shift in focus from healthcare issues to economic issues as well as a shift to more sustainable infrastructure projects. It will begin before the end of the year.
Frederiksen summed up the measures taken during the crisis to support employees and businesses. Some 150,000 people have received wage compensation and avoided being laid off, and 25,000 businesses have received aid. In the question and answer period after the speech, Frederiksen said that she was concerned about the increase in the reproduction number (R0) to 0.9 since the first phase of the reopening but that she expected the second phase to begin as planned (DK) on May 10. Negotiations with the other parties on the next steps of the exit from lockdown restrictions continue.
Antifa silenced, nursing home residents to get visits
Frederiksen also noted with a smile that the room was very quiet. That was a reference to the traditional May Day gathering last year in Copenhagen’s largest park, when she had been drowned out by protesters from the Autonomist Movement, the local version of Antifa. Before the corona virus outbreak, she had declined to appear at the gathering this year.
Parliament has also reached a broad agreement on an aid package to help nursing home residents (DK) and other elderly people return to more normal conditions. The plan, which will cost DKK 165 million ($24 million), was approved by all the parliamentary parties except for the Liberal Party, which believed it did not go far enough. It is intended to reestablish the standard service level for cleaning and cultural activities and to redress loneliness and anxiety among the elderly who have been isolated, including those with dementia, by promoting volunteer activities, for example. A key element of the plan is setting up outdoor facilities where the elderly can receive visits from their families while minimizing the risk of infection.
Infection-risk rankings from libraries to discos
A new factor in the negotiations that came to light yesterday is a confidential memorandum sent to MPs by SSI, the agency responsible for preparedness against infectious diseases. It contained an extensive list of institutions and organizations according to their risk levels (DK) for Parliament to use in determining the next steps in the reopening of the economy on May 10. In the low-risk category are outdoor eating facilities, libraries, museums and outdoor zoos. In the medium-risk category are higher educational institutions, theaters, restaurants, churches, shopping centers, workplaces where social distancing is possible, and outdoor sports facilities. High-risk locations include middle schools and high schools, bars and concert halls. In the very-high-risk category are boarding schools, fitness centers, nightclubs, and (indoor) visits to nursing homes and hospitals.
The SSI noted that the ranking was “uncertain and simplistic” and that the organizations selected for reopening should depend on the degree of spread of the virus on May 10 and on the other organizations that are allowed to open at the same time. The decision will be made by the government in consultation with the other political parties, not the SSI or the Health Ministry.
Yesterday Statens Serum Institut (SSI), the agency responsible for preparedness against infectious diseases, reported that the reproduction number of infections rose (DK) during the first week after the country reopened schools and small businesses. The measure, aka R0, indicates how many people one infected person passes the infection on to. If it is below 1.0, the virus is declining in prevalence. Before the reopening, in the period April 10-14, R0 had fallen to 0.6. After the reopening, in the period April 19-24, it rose to 0.9. The spread of the infection is thus not increasing. The rise in R0 had been expected after the relaxation of lockdown restrictions. Hospitalizations, which are a clearer measure of the spread of the virus, have been falling steadily since April 1.
Teenagers will be teenagers
Kåre Mølbak, the head of SSI, reported that, while the overall spread of the virus remained under control, it has risen sharply among a certain segment of the population. For teenagers, it has doubled (DK) during the month of April. It rose from 4 per 100,000 in weeks 12-14 to 11 per 100,00 in weeks 15-17. The rate is still much lower than that of the elderly. For those over 80, the rate was 47 per 100,000 in the latter period. The information on the spread of the virus was presented to Parliament as they consider whether to reopen high schools and other educational institutions in the next phase of the lockdown exit.
Mølbak did not make any recommendations about the reopening policy. He stated that young people do not run a great risk of becoming ill but the figures show that there may be a hidden dissemination of the virus that could pose a challenge during a further relaxation of restrictions. He added that young people sometimes have trouble taking such warnings seriously if they want to meet with their friends but they should consult their consciences and realize that they also have a responsibility to society.
IKEA again again
(The Danish phrase for “yet again” is “igen igen.”) After criticizing IKEA for reopening and then receiving criticism himself for his comments, Simon Kollerup, Minister for Business, has announced more concrete guidelines for large retailers (DK). The new rule is that stores larger than 10,000 square meters (100,000 sq. feet) must allow a space of 20 square meters (200 sq. feet) for each customer. Previously the general recommendation was that there must be only 4 square meters per customer. Other requirements are that customers must be able to walk past one another and stand in line at 2 meters’ distance, that the restaurant and children’s playroom must remain closed, and that there must be adequate supplies of sanitizer or soap and water. Kollerup reported that he had held constructive discussions with retailers and trade associations, and IKEA announced that it would be ready to comply with the new rule today.
As I reported yesterday, the parliamentary opposition has criticized the government for changing the policies during the crisis. Yesterday Magnus Heunicke, the Minister for Health, defended the government’s decisions (DK) to revise its policies. He said that it would be unwise to follow a fixed policy when new information about the spread of the virus is always appearing. Heunicke was questioned by opposition parties particularly about the Health Authority’s guidelines concerning the risk of infection from asymptomatic persons, which were not clarified until April 21, and their significance for the safety of healthcare personnel. Heunicke said that the Health Authority was following the WHO’s recommendations but that it had mentioned the risk earlier.
Terror, death of a poet, and praise from the fake newsmaker
While the Covid-19 crisis grinds along, other things are also happening in Denmark: Police and special forces arrested a radical Islamist (DK) who was allegedly planning a terror attack in Denmark. The young poet Yahya Hassan (DK), who caused a sensation a few years ago with his provocative upper-case exhortations and later ran into trouble with the law, was found dead in his home. And the president of the United States, who is best known for his lies and disinformation, compared Denmark’s pandemic strategy favorably to Sweden’s.
Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and others held a press conference on Tuesday (DK), the day before the reopening of schools and day-care centers. She reported that the number of hospitalizations and ICU patients are declining more quickly than expected and that the country can open up slightly more in next phase than it had planned. She did not specify what restrictions would be relaxed but said that the administration’s focus was on workplaces and the economy. Frederiksen seemed relieved, more relaxed and confident – even happy – as she announced the change in the administration’s outlook. She defended its conservative policy, praised people for their cooperation in observing the social distancing guidelines during the Easter holidays, and reiterated the necessity of continuing the practice.
R0 shrinking to a safe level
Statens Serum Institut released a report yesterday afternoon on the status of the infection with an estimate of the R0 rate (DK), that is, the rate of infection from an individual Covid-19 patient. The rate had fallen from 2.6 persons on March 12 to 1.4 persons on March 24, to 0.9 on April 7, when Frederiksen presented the reopening plan, and further to 0.6. A level below 1.0 means that the virus is not spreading. At the press conference, Kåre Mølbak, from the Institute, said that the positive trend was owing in particular to the behavior of people in the 70-80-year-old age group (DK), who followed the administration’s guidelines and avoided infection. He added that the infection rate would rise to about 0.8 after the first stage of lifting restrictions but would remain under control.
Frederiksen invited representatives of the other political parties to a meeting immediately after the press conference to discuss how to expand the reopening. She had previously been criticized for not including other parties in the decision on the extent of the first phase of reopening, and yesterday, as the figures on infections and deaths continued to decline, she came under pressure to ease up (DK) further on the restrictions. The administration had chosen to follow the most cautious of the three policies that the Ministry Health set forth for the first phase of the reopening, which is scheduled to run until May 10.
Professional services and small businesses could be next
At the subsequent meeting, the parties had many and various recommendations for relaxing (DK) the restrictions. The Liberal Alliance Party favored opening professional services as well as restaurants that can adhere to precautionary principles. The Danish People’s Party emphasized the need for contact among older people who have been isolated and sometimes become lonely and depressed. The Socialist People’s Party and the Social Liberals recommended opening adult education, the courts and small businesses such as hairdressers and dentists. Other parties urged opening of outdoor clubs, afterschool workshops and other educational institutions. The New Right had a detailed plan for accelerating the reopening schedule to cover almost everything by May 20. No conclusions were reached at the meeting.
This good news came after reports yesterday that the four largest municipalities in the country, including Copenhagen, would not follow the Health Authority’s recommendation that children from households with infected people should attend school. After many parents and several political parties expressed concerns about the policy, Minister of Health Magnus Heunicke announced that it was changing the guidelines to allow such children to stay home. Teachers and day-care staff with sick family members in their homes were still expected to work, however, because they should be able to maintain good hygiene.
