Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and others held a press conference on Tuesday (DK), the day before the reopening of schools and day-care centers. She reported that the number of hospitalizations and ICU patients are declining more quickly than expected and that the country can open up slightly more in next phase than it had planned. She did not specify what restrictions would be relaxed but said that the administration’s focus was on workplaces and the economy. Frederiksen seemed relieved, more relaxed and confident – even happy – as she announced the change in the administration’s outlook. She defended its conservative policy, praised people for their cooperation in observing the social distancing guidelines during the Easter holidays, and reiterated the necessity of continuing the practice.
R0 shrinking to a safe level
Statens Serum Institut released a report yesterday afternoon on the status of the infection with an estimate of the R0 rate (DK), that is, the rate of infection from an individual Covid-19 patient. The rate had fallen from 2.6 persons on March 12 to 1.4 persons on March 24, to 0.9 on April 7, when Frederiksen presented the reopening plan, and further to 0.6. A level below 1.0 means that the virus is not spreading. At the press conference, Kåre Mølbak, from the Institute, said that the positive trend was owing in particular to the behavior of people in the 70-80-year-old age group (DK), who followed the administration’s guidelines and avoided infection. He added that the infection rate would rise to about 0.8 after the first stage of lifting restrictions but would remain under control.
Frederiksen invited representatives of the other political parties to a meeting immediately after the press conference to discuss how to expand the reopening. She had previously been criticized for not including other parties in the decision on the extent of the first phase of reopening, and yesterday, as the figures on infections and deaths continued to decline, she came under pressure to ease up (DK) further on the restrictions. The administration had chosen to follow the most cautious of the three policies that the Ministry Health set forth for the first phase of the reopening, which is scheduled to run until May 10.
Professional services and small businesses could be next
At the subsequent meeting, the parties had many and various recommendations for relaxing (DK) the restrictions. The Liberal Alliance Party favored opening professional services as well as restaurants that can adhere to precautionary principles. The Danish People’s Party emphasized the need for contact among older people who have been isolated and sometimes become lonely and depressed. The Socialist People’s Party and the Social Liberals recommended opening adult education, the courts and small businesses such as hairdressers and dentists. Other parties urged opening of outdoor clubs, afterschool workshops and other educational institutions. The New Right had a detailed plan for accelerating the reopening schedule to cover almost everything by May 20. No conclusions were reached at the meeting.
This good news came after reports yesterday that the four largest municipalities in the country, including Copenhagen, would not follow the Health Authority’s recommendation that children from households with infected people should attend school. After many parents and several political parties expressed concerns about the policy, Minister of Health Magnus Heunicke announced that it was changing the guidelines to allow such children to stay home. Teachers and day-care staff with sick family members in their homes were still expected to work, however, because they should be able to maintain good hygiene.
On Monday, Minister of Health Magnus Heunicke announced that the healthcare system would begin resuming normal operations (DK) this week. Ordinary activities have been suspended since the outbreak of the epidemic, but now the epidemic is considered to be under control and the system has the capacity to treat other health issues as well. Patients normally have a right to be treated within 30 days. A backlog of cases needing treatment by both GPs and specialists has accumulated during the crisis, including thousands of elective surgery procedures.
The administration reached an agreement with organizations representing the Regions, the Municipalities and the Danish Medical Association but not with the other political parties. Last week, the opposition parties called for concrete measures to reestablish patient rights. Heunicke stated that he wished that the administration could have reached a broad agreement on reopening the system with the other parties, but the “political will” was lacking. The Ministry of Health has not set a date for formally reinstating the treatment guarantee. The chairman of the Danish Medical Association, Anders Rudkjøbing, stated that it would be irresponsible to reinstate the guarantee (DK) now because the system cannot yet operate at full normal capacity.
Are recovered patients immune?
The health authorities are working hard on an antibody test (DK) that will show whether recovered Covid-19 patients have acquired immunity to the disease. According to Martin Tolstrup from the Institute for Clinical Medicine at Aarhus University, who heads the project, most people who are infected develop antibodies, but it is not yet certain that they have developed immunity. His group is applying antibodies to live viruses in petri dishes to see whether the antibodies kill the viruses. This is an important issue, not only because the results will determine whether recovered patients, including healthcare personnel, can return to work. Plasma from patients with strong antibodies could also be used as a treatment for new Covid-19 patients. But that part of the project could take up to a year, says Tolstrup, around the same amount of time for a vaccine to be developed and approved.
Margrethe Vestager, the European Minister for Competition, has recommended that EU member states be prepared to take stakes in private companies because there is a risk that China will attempt to take over companies that are in a distressed financial condition because of the epidemic. Vestager, who is the former chair of the Danish Social Liberal Party, was speaking generally and not in reference to Denmark in particular. But DR’s business correspondent Jakob Ussing says that the warning applies to Denmark (DK) as well as to the larger European countries. China has had an interest in acquiring infrastructure and technology companies. After the financial crisis, a Chinese company bought Greece’s largest harbor, in Piræus, for example. China is interested in green energy, one of the fields in which Denmark excels, and a Chinese company has already acquired a tower plant from Vestas, Denmark’s leading wind energy firm.
Man’s Humans’ best friend in a crisis
International business competition is not the only area where a watchdog is needed. The Dansk Kennel Club reports a large rise – around 40 percent – in demand for dogs (DK) since the lockdown. Other dog breeders have seen similar interest, and animal shelters have fewer occupants than usual because of adoptions. According to breeders, the reasons that people want dogs now are that they have more time for pets at home under quarantine and they are not making plans for summer travel. A spokesman for Animal Protection Denmark, Jens Jokumsen, however, warns that a pet should not be an impulse purchase. People must also be prepared to care for it after the epidemic ends. They should also take time to consider what is the best breed for their family.
A few days ago, when Tanja Wadmann Gade saw many tourists on the west coast of Jutland who were not complying with the government’s restrictions on social distancing, she posted a video from her car on Facebook (DK) to refresh their memory. “What the hell is going on here?” it began. Most of the 2,000 comments on the post were favorable, but many weren’t. Gade finally decided to remove the video and posted a second one in which she explained that “when disagreement becomes hate, you have to draw the line and put an end to it.”
On Easter weekend in Denmark, Thursday, Friday, Sunday and Monday are holidays. That means that people are used to shopping heavily at supermarkets and other stores on Saturday. Many customers at Bilka, the country’s answer to Walmart, were shocked at the crowds (DK). “It was like Christmas shopping. . . . If I get the coronavirus, it will be today.” Bilka’s management said that it had posted the government’s guidelines on social distancing, that staff were assigned to enforce them, and that the police had been to several branches to check that conditions were satisfactory.
Drive-in worship, open bar
Ordinary Easter church services were canceled this year because of the lockdown, but several congregations held drive-in services (DK) in their parking lots. Churches in Aarhus went together on a joint service at a drive-in movie theater. Attendees sang hymns in their cars and honked their horns in unison during the service.
There was a long line in front of the Admiral pub in Silkeborg, Jutland, which gave away a supply of draft beer (DK) that was passing its sell-by date because the pub has been closed during the lockdown. People seemed to be in a festive mood as they showed up with pitchers from home. The pub’s owner, Kenn Jørgensen, had posted signs reminding people to keep two meters’ distance from one another and let only a few into the pub at a time, but many people stood close together. The police were on hand to see that things didn’t get out of control. “We have put the place on the map,” said Jørgensen.
Yesterday, Easter Sunday, the administration held a meeting with right-wing opposition parties to negotiate the reopening the healthcare system (DK). The latter were dissatisfied with the administration’s lack of concrete measures to reestablish patient rights and broke off the negotiations. The healthcare system has suspended much of its normal operations in order to manage the demands of the Covid-19 epidemic, but it now has vacant capacity. The opposition says it wants more than vague statements of intentions and wants private hospitals to be used to handle the demand that has accumulated since the lockdown went into effect.
Passing the time in captivity
It’s no surprise that some shifts take place in the economy during the lockdown. The airlines are struggling; sales of protective gloves and toilet paper are soaring. Another business that’s doing very well is sex toys. In the first week of April, Sinful, the biggest retailer in the field in Scandinavia, saw revenues double over the level last year. Its line of multiple-day challenges is especially popular. The company’s founder, Mathilde Mackowski, is glad that she can offer something that helps people get through the crisis.
The number of coronavirus patients hospitalized, in ICU and on respirators has been declining steadily since April 1. The number of deaths has been falling also, not every day but by half since April 1. Yesterday, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen (DK) held a press conference to remind people one last time before Easter Sunday to keep their distance from one another and to stay home because it is the only way to stop the outbreak. Police Chief Thorkild Fogde made a separate announcement urging the same and warning that the police would be out and would give fines to people who didn’t adhere to the restrictions on social distancing and gatherings.
On Friday, Steen Bostrøm of the Danish Health Authority revised the Authority’s guidelines (DK) on the risk of infection from persons who are asymptomatic. Previously the risk was described as “unconfirmed” and “very small.” On the basis of international studies and the recommendation of Danish researchers, the risk level has been changed to “significant.”
Mixed opinions on reopening the schools
Schools and day-care centers are preparing to reopen on Wednesday. They expect to hold more classes outside, and some schools have asked to borrow large tents (DK) used for parties so that the classes can also be held outside if it’s raining. Teachers emphasize that children will need to understand they must keep their distance from others and not hug one another. Many parents look forward to a resumption of school and have confidence in the schools’ ability to operate under these extraordinary conditions.
Other reports are not so sanguine. The English-language daily The Local reports that many expat parents think that the schools are reopening too soon and have decided to keep their children home for a while longer. Some feel that all the social distancing that people have followed so far will be wasted and that infections will begin to increase again. Other express fears that the policy is a dangerous experiment in which parents and teachers as well as children risk being infected.
Two parents’ associations issued a protest (DK) have lodged a protest against the Health Authority’s guidelines on school attendance. The guidelines give permission to go to school to children who live in homes where someone has Covid-19 if the patient remains isolated. The two organization, Schools and Parents and the National Parents’ Association, warn that it is very difficult to ensure that children have no contact with an infected person and believe that children from such families should be kept home. Allan Randrup Thomsen, Professor of Virology and University of Copenhagen, concurs, citing the change in the Health Authority’s warning about the risk of infection from asymptomatic carriers. Nevertheless, the Health Authority maintained its position that the risk of infection is minimal. If patients are unable to isolate themselves, they should speak with their doctor and get help from the municipality. The parents’ associations ask how it’s possible for a family member to isolate herself in a small apartment if she uses the same bathroom as others, for example. The Health Authority responds that patients must make sure to use sanitizer whenever necessary. The parents’ associations are not satisfied with that position. The Minister of Children and Education, Pernille Rosenkrantz-Theil did not respond to requests for an interview.
Quest for a “Danish” vaccine
TV2 News, citing a report in the daily Jyllands-Posten, reports that experts have criticized the administration (DK) for not giving more money to research to discover a “national vaccine.” They say there is a great potential that is not being utilized in a collaboration between pharma companies, hospitals and universities. Representatives of several parties agree and are willing to allocate more money to such projects. At least one collaborative project to find a vaccine is under way, and researchers complain that they need more funding. It seems odd that the report refers to a “Danish vaccine,” as though each country must develop its own vaccine and its citizens would not get vaccinated until a vaccine is produced locally. It would make more sense for researchers to collaborate across borders with their counterparts in larger countries and at larger organizations that have already allocated much greater resources to the project.
The Minister of Finance Nicolai Wammen says that the second quarter of 2020 will be the worst period in Danish financial history (DK). The administration expects GDP for the full year to fall 3 to 6 percent. The outlook is very uncertain, however, and depends to a great degree on developments in the countries that Denmark trades with. This forecast is more favorable than the estimates of a group of leading economists reported earlier in the week, which called for a decline in GDP in the range of 11-16 percent in the second quarter and 4-12 percent for the full year.
