Coronavirus in Denmark: Beware the asymptomatic

The number of coronavirus patients hospitalized, in ICU and on respirators has been declining steadily since April 1. The number of deaths has been falling also, not every day but by half since April 1. Yesterday, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen (DK) held a press conference to remind people one last time before Easter Sunday to keep their distance from one another and to stay home because it is the only way to stop the outbreak. Police Chief Thorkild Fogde made a separate announcement urging the same and warning that the police would be out and would give fines to people who didn’t adhere to the restrictions on social distancing and gatherings.

On Friday, Steen Bostrøm of the Danish Health Authority revised the Authority’s guidelines (DK) on the risk of infection from persons who are asymptomatic. Previously the risk was described as “unconfirmed” and “very small.” On the basis of international studies and the recommendation of Danish researchers, the risk level has been changed to “significant.”

Mixed opinions on reopening the schools

Schools and day-care centers are preparing to reopen on Wednesday. They expect to hold more classes outside, and some schools have asked to borrow large tents (DK) used for parties so that the classes can also be held outside if it’s raining. Teachers emphasize that children will need to understand they must keep their distance from others and not hug one another. Many parents look forward to a resumption of school and have confidence in the schools’ ability to operate under these extraordinary conditions.

Other reports are not so sanguine. The English-language daily The Local reports that many expat parents think that the schools are reopening too soon and have decided to keep their children home for a while longer. Some feel that all the social distancing that people have followed so far will be wasted and that infections will begin to increase again. Other express fears that the policy is a dangerous experiment in which parents and teachers as well as children risk being infected.

Two parents’ associations issued a protest (DK) have lodged a protest against the Health Authority’s guidelines on school attendance. The guidelines give permission to go to school to children who live in homes where someone has Covid-19 if the patient remains isolated. The two organization, Schools and Parents and the National Parents’ Association, warn that it is very difficult to ensure that children have no contact with an infected person and believe that children from such families should be kept home. Allan Randrup Thomsen, Professor of Virology and University of Copenhagen, concurs, citing the change in the Health Authority’s warning about the risk of infection from asymptomatic carriers.  Nevertheless, the Health Authority maintained its position that the risk of infection is minimal. If patients are unable to isolate themselves, they should speak with their doctor and get help from the municipality. The parents’ associations ask how it’s possible for a family member to isolate herself in a small apartment if she uses the same bathroom as others, for example. The Health Authority responds that patients must make sure to use sanitizer whenever necessary. The parents’ associations are not satisfied with that position. The Minister of Children and Education, Pernille Rosenkrantz-Theil did not respond to requests for an interview.

Quest for a “Danish” vaccine

TV2 News, citing a report in the daily Jyllands-Posten, reports that experts have criticized the administration (DK) for not giving more money to research to discover a “national vaccine.” They say there is a great potential that is not being utilized in a collaboration between pharma companies, hospitals and universities. Representatives of several parties agree and are willing to allocate more money to such projects. At least one collaborative project to find a vaccine is under way, and researchers complain that they need more funding. It seems odd that the report refers to a “Danish vaccine,” as though each country must develop its own vaccine and its citizens would not get vaccinated until a vaccine is produced locally. It would make more sense for researchers to collaborate across borders with their counterparts in larger countries and at larger organizations that have already allocated much greater resources to the project.

The Minister of Finance Nicolai Wammen says that the second quarter of 2020 will be the worst period in Danish financial history (DK). The administration expects GDP for the full year to fall 3 to 6 percent. The outlook is very uncertain, however, and depends to a great degree on developments in the countries that Denmark trades with. This forecast is more favorable than the estimates of a group of leading economists reported earlier in the week, which called for a decline in GDP in the range of 11-16 percent in the second quarter and 4-12 percent for the full year.