Coronavirus in Denmark: The next steps

The numbers continue to fall (DK) for the third consecutive day in Denmark. They have been almost flat for about a week. It seems almost callous to quote them because they are tiny in comparison with what is happening elsewhere, particularly in the US, where the infections are still accelerating. The most telling figures are the number of hospitalized and ICU patients, says Thea Kølsen Fischer, Head of Research at North Zealand Hospital, because the number of infections and deaths may be influenced by other factors, such as the extent of testing and preexisting conditions. But the figures reported across all these parameters are consistent, and they indicate that the strategy of social distancing and quarantine is working. So that is something that other countries can learn from if they still have doubts.

With this main issue more or less settled, attention is turning to other questions: Do masks protect people from being infected? How many carriers are asymptomatic? Is herd immunity feasible? Will there be a second wave? Can people who recover be reinfected?

Tests, masks and antibodies

In Denmark, the tests appear to be very accurate (DK): the percentage of false negatives is small, around 1 percent. The sample in the test must be taken from the right location, says one researcher. If the virus has moved from the throat to the lungs, a sample from the throat may be negative. If the swab isn’t applied correctly, it may miss an infection. Rigshospital, a large, specialized hospital in Copenhagen, has made a video on how to do it correctly, and the WHO is translating it for use in other countries. 

Researchers are undertaking an experiment to investigate whether masks help (DK) protect against infection. Four researchers from the Greater Copenhagen Region, in cooperation with the Salling Group, which owns several supermarket chains, are giving surgical masks to Salling Group employees. They have recruited 6,000 employees. Half of them will wear the masks when they are outside their homes for thirty days, and the other half is the control group. They will test themselves regularly, and the tests will be analyzed after the thirty-day period. Masks have been found to prevent people who are already infected from spreading the virus, but there is much debate about how effective they are in protecting people who have never been infected.

Blood donors are being tested for antibodies (DK) in order to get an indication of whether the population is developing herd immunity. The estimate of effective herd immunity is around 60 percent, and only a few of those tested had antibodies.

EU collaboration problems revisited

Denmark’s Social Democratic representatives to the EU Parliament point out that, per capita, the largest amount of coronavirus aid is going to Hungary (DK), where the epidemic is rather limited. Italy and Spain, which are suffering the most, receive very little, the fifteenth and sixteenth most. This is because the money was redirected from a source, structural and investment funds, whose the distribution was based on the general standard of living. The funds had also already been distributed. This is a little embarrassing, particularly because the drastic steps that Hungary has recently taken in declaring a state of emergency have virtually suspended the democratic rule of law and drawn criticism from other EU nations. It also says something about the lack of flexibility in the EU. The solution, just as in the US and from all the central banks, will almost certainly be another rescue package. 

Simon Kollerup, Minister of Industry, Business and Finance, has criticized Danish banks (DK) for not giving enough loans to small businesses. He accuses them of not showing social responsibility and solidarity toward more vulnerable businesses. Some have had loan applications rejected, and others have been offered overdraft facilities with an interest rate as high as 18.75 percent. The banking industry organization, Finans Danmark, answered that 90 percent of applications are approved and that it would be irresponsible to grant loans to businesses that are unlikely to survive after a return to normal conditions. 

These are some of the main elements of the Danish aid package, which totals DKK 286 billion ($41 billion, or the equivalent of $2.25 trillion in the US):

• Extension of the deadline for withholding tax and VAT (DKK 165 billion)
• Guarantees for loans to SME and large businesses (DKK 60 billion)
• Temporary compensation for loss of salary
• Temporary compensation for self-employed and freelancers
• Temporary compensation for companies’ fixed expenses
• Unemployment and illness benefits
• Refund to companies for unemployment benefit contributions
• Compensation for cancellation of large events
• Guarantees for SAS
• Increased loan options for students