Coronavirus DK: Will it ever end?

Now that I’m finished with two book projects that have occupied most of the past year, I intend to resume posting to this blog. Although the topics will concern other things besides Covid, it may be useful to update the state of the pandemic here in light of the new surge and increased uncertainty around the world.

Denmark believes it is returning to normal. Vaccinations have been proceeding steadily, and a large majority of the adult population has now been fully vaccinated. Several test centers are being closed because they are no longer needed. The Social Democratic administration had been under pressure to ease restrictions on commercial and public behavior, and there is a consensus that the country won’t be subject to a lockdown again as others countries have been. Almost all the restrictions are being phased out (DK). Very few people wear masks in public and maintain social distance, almost all of them elderly

67% of Danes fully vaccinated; photo: Emil Helms / Ritzau Scanpix

Partying like it's 2019
Schools will open on schedule, with no requirement for masks. Masks are no longer required on public transportation. For indoor service, restaurants and bars require a “corona passport” documenting vaccination or a negative test, as do fitness centers and service businesses such as hairdressers. Limits on public gatherings and attendance at cultural and sporting events and church services have been raised. Nightclubs and discotheques are the only venues that are still closed. Travel restrictions were also eased during the summer holiday season. 

But the delta variant is interfering with a smooth transition back to pre-pandemic conditions. Infections and hospitalizations (DK) are rising again after dropping to very low levels at the end of June. They got a boost from the raucous crowds gathering to watch Denmark make it to semifinals of the European Cup soccer championship from mid-June to early July. The country now ranks in the top third of Europe (DK) in the recent infection rate.

There is a contingency plan (DK) to lockdown a county or an individual parish if it experiences an acute spike in cases: more than 20 cases; 1,000 infections per 100,000; and a positive results in more than 3% of tests. If it is closed, the area must be come under the limits for seven days before it reopens. There are no closures at present.

Covid-19 in Denmark, 19 August 2021

• Infections: yesterday 984; total 333,815 (below 200 daily in late June)
• Hospitalizations; yesterday 116 (below 30 in early July)
• ICU: yesterday 16
• Deaths: yesterday 0; total 2,562
• Positive test results: 1.60% (0.17% in June)
• Reproduction number: 1.0 (1.3 in July)
• Deaths per million: 442 (vs. USA 1,876; UK 1,930; Sweden 1,460; Norway 149)
• Infections per 100,000 in past week: 119 (vs. UK 300; France 260; Sweden 57; Germany 36)
• Vaccinations begun (first shot): 74.4% of the population
• Fully vaccinated: 67.3%

A new report from the State Serum Institute (DK) shows that the vaccines are still effective against both the delta and alpha variants in preventing infections and hospitalizations.  

Coronavirus DK: Comprehensive reopening plan

Unlike some of the larger Western European countries, Denmark has not been hit by a third wave of Covid-19 cases. The country is planning a full reopening by the end of May.

Update on the pandemic in Denmark:

• Infections have been rising slowly (DK) but steadily in the past month. Now they are around 600-700 per day.
• Hospitalizations ( approx. 200), ICU cases (40), and deaths (under 5 per day) have remained low in the same period.
• Deaths per million stand at 418, in comparison with the US (1,668), the UK (1,874), Sweden (1,135), and Norway (122).
• Testing has increased steadily to 180,000 per day. The positive ratio is 0.38%. The reproduction number has risen steadily this year from 0.7 to 1.1 earlier this month.
• Vaccinations have been delayed. 11.7% of the population has gotten the first dose, and 6.2% has gotten two doses. Large shipments are expected in April.

The unwanted vaccine. Photo: DADO RUVIC © Scanpix.

Return to normal?

Last week Parliament announced a comprehensive plan to relax restrictions (DK) over a six-week period beginning on April 6, in this order: the rest of schools and other educational institutions for part-time physical attendance; stores and shopping centers; outdoor service at restaurants; theaters, concert halls, and indoor service at restaurants; sports and other recreational activities. If the pandemic flares up again, the government reserves the right to postpone measures and implement local restrictions.

Some researchers warn that the reopening will cause cases to double. Nine cases of the Brazilian variant, P1 (DK), have been found recently, and authorities worry that it may be more infectious and less responsive to the vaccine than others. 

The suspension of the AstraZeneca vaccine (DK) has been extended an additional three weeks, until April 15. Despite the European Medicines Agency’s recommendation to resume vaccinations, the Danish Health Authority says it needs more time to investigate the risk of blood clots. 

Men in Orange
A few lockdown protestors from the Men in Black movement have been given extraordinarily long sentences (DK) on the basis of section 81d of the criminal code on “crimes related to the Covid-19 epidemic.” These include the woman who urged protestors to “smash the city in a non-violent way” before a riot that resulted in injuries to several police officers. Other protestors have been charged for actions during the demonstrations, including the man who burned a photo of Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen in effigy on a poster carrying the slogan “She must be and will be put down” (that is, euthanized, an allusion to the culling of large numbers of mink in Denmark last month). Some of the left-wing parties who voted for section 81d are now saying that the proposed sentences are unduly harsh.

Coronavirus DK: Restrictions extended until March

In a press conference yesterday, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced that Denmark will extend its tight pandemic restrictions (DK) an additional three weeks from February 7 to February 28. The main reason she gave was the B117 mutation: “We have seen how quickly the new mutation can bring things out of control. Therefore, we cannot ease the restrictions. Even though more people are being vaccinated, we must go forward carefully.” The measures include the closure of all restaurants, bars and retail businesses, except for supermarkets and pharmacies and a limit on gatherings to five persons. Frederiksen left open the possibility of allowing the youngest pupils, from kindergarten to fourth grade, to return to school before March.

PM Mette Frederiksen bringing bad news yet again. Photo: Liselotte Sabroe/Ritzau Scanpix.

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The pandemic figures have been falling (DK) since the restrictions were put in place just before Christmas. Daily infections have dropped from around 3,000 to around 500; the percentage of positive tests from a peak of 4% to 0.6%; total hospitalizations from about 900 to 600; and the reproduction number from above 1.0 to 0.7. The percentage of infections deriving from the B117 mutation, however, has risen steadily to 13.%

Vaccine trouble
As in other European countries, the delivery of vaccines has been delayed (DK). Denmark is part of the European Union deal on Pfizer and BioNTech vaccines. The State Serum Institute estimates that the vaccination of groups with lower priority will come around five weeks later than originally scheduled, in April and May. The agency still hopes that everyone will be vaccinated before the end of June. It is pursuing a policy of giving people the second dose of the vaccine three weeks after the first instead of the First Doses First approach taken by some countries in which the second dose is postponed for months in order to give more people the first dose sooner. Thus far, 3.15% of the population have received the first dose and 0.64% have received two doses.

An increasing number of business owners and others are disappointed and angered by the extension. Around 10% of businesses are reported to have serious liquidity problems and are at risk of going bankrupt. In response, the government today announced a new aid package (DK) of loans and other measures worth DKK 170 billion (USD 27 billion). 

Travel scandals
Others are also becoming impatient with the restrictions. There have been a couple of minor scandals recently concerning violations of travel restrictions. Some people have taken to ski resorts in Austria (DK), one of the main hotspots one year ago, under the guise of pursing job opportunities. Last week, it was reported that 50 infected persons had entered Denmark from Dubai (DK) in January. Some 33 of them arrived after the January 9 requirement that passengers coming to Denmark be tested. They had all received negative test results in Dubai before boarding the flight, and there is suspicion of “irregularities” in the testing in Dubai. Some of the travelers were professional athletes and influencers who shared their trip on social media despite the restrictions on travel abroad. After this discovery, the Danish authorities suspended flights from Dubai to Denmark for five days.

After double overtime
But all isn’t doom and gloom. On Wednesday, at the World Handball Championships, the Danish men’s team beat host team Egypt by a score of 39-38 on the final penalty shot in “the most insane handball game in the history of the world,” according to the commentator Henrik Liniger. The team qualified for the semifinal against Spain, which you can watch this evening at 8:30 pm CET (2:30 pm EST) on dr.dk.

Coronavirus in Denmark: Beware the asymptomatic

The number of coronavirus patients hospitalized, in ICU and on respirators has been declining steadily since April 1. The number of deaths has been falling also, not every day but by half since April 1. Yesterday, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen (DK) held a press conference to remind people one last time before Easter Sunday to keep their distance from one another and to stay home because it is the only way to stop the outbreak. Police Chief Thorkild Fogde made a separate announcement urging the same and warning that the police would be out and would give fines to people who didn’t adhere to the restrictions on social distancing and gatherings.

On Friday, Steen Bostrøm of the Danish Health Authority revised the Authority’s guidelines (DK) on the risk of infection from persons who are asymptomatic. Previously the risk was described as “unconfirmed” and “very small.” On the basis of international studies and the recommendation of Danish researchers, the risk level has been changed to “significant.”

Mixed opinions on reopening the schools

Schools and day-care centers are preparing to reopen on Wednesday. They expect to hold more classes outside, and some schools have asked to borrow large tents (DK) used for parties so that the classes can also be held outside if it’s raining. Teachers emphasize that children will need to understand they must keep their distance from others and not hug one another. Many parents look forward to a resumption of school and have confidence in the schools’ ability to operate under these extraordinary conditions.

Other reports are not so sanguine. The English-language daily The Local reports that many expat parents think that the schools are reopening too soon and have decided to keep their children home for a while longer. Some feel that all the social distancing that people have followed so far will be wasted and that infections will begin to increase again. Other express fears that the policy is a dangerous experiment in which parents and teachers as well as children risk being infected.

Two parents’ associations issued a protest (DK) have lodged a protest against the Health Authority’s guidelines on school attendance. The guidelines give permission to go to school to children who live in homes where someone has Covid-19 if the patient remains isolated. The two organization, Schools and Parents and the National Parents’ Association, warn that it is very difficult to ensure that children have no contact with an infected person and believe that children from such families should be kept home. Allan Randrup Thomsen, Professor of Virology and University of Copenhagen, concurs, citing the change in the Health Authority’s warning about the risk of infection from asymptomatic carriers.  Nevertheless, the Health Authority maintained its position that the risk of infection is minimal. If patients are unable to isolate themselves, they should speak with their doctor and get help from the municipality. The parents’ associations ask how it’s possible for a family member to isolate herself in a small apartment if she uses the same bathroom as others, for example. The Health Authority responds that patients must make sure to use sanitizer whenever necessary. The parents’ associations are not satisfied with that position. The Minister of Children and Education, Pernille Rosenkrantz-Theil did not respond to requests for an interview.

Quest for a “Danish” vaccine

TV2 News, citing a report in the daily Jyllands-Posten, reports that experts have criticized the administration (DK) for not giving more money to research to discover a “national vaccine.” They say there is a great potential that is not being utilized in a collaboration between pharma companies, hospitals and universities. Representatives of several parties agree and are willing to allocate more money to such projects. At least one collaborative project to find a vaccine is under way, and researchers complain that they need more funding. It seems odd that the report refers to a “Danish vaccine,” as though each country must develop its own vaccine and its citizens would not get vaccinated until a vaccine is produced locally. It would make more sense for researchers to collaborate across borders with their counterparts in larger countries and at larger organizations that have already allocated much greater resources to the project.

The Minister of Finance Nicolai Wammen says that the second quarter of 2020 will be the worst period in Danish financial history (DK). The administration expects GDP for the full year to fall 3 to 6 percent. The outlook is very uncertain, however, and depends to a great degree on developments in the countries that Denmark trades with. This forecast is more favorable than the estimates of a group of leading economists reported earlier in the week, which called for a decline in GDP in the range of 11-16 percent in the second quarter and 4-12 percent for the full year.