Coronavirus DK: Second wave may be losing steam

 According to tradition, Parliament opens its annual session on the first Tuesday in October, and the prime minister gives a speech on the state of the nation (DK). PM Mette Frederiksen used the occasion to emphasize that, although the country has undergone a resurgence of coronavirus infections, the epidemic is under control: “We have proved that we can both protect individual lives and at the same time be one of the economies that emerges the strongest from the pandemic.” She announced that the government has established a new warning system that will allow the authorities to adjust restrictions more easily. 

This is the status: On Tuesday, October 7, there were 322 new cases of infection (DK), the lowest level since September 11, down from the peak of 652 on September 23. The number hospitalized has been rising slowly but steadily to 124, and the number of death now totals 633. The reproduction number has fallen below 1.0 for the first time since August. Testing has increased recently to about 50,000 per day. More than 23,000 are reported to have recovered from the infection.+

Even though the trend in infections is falling, a large majority of municipalities, 80 out of 98, still have an infection rate above 20 per 10,000 during the past week, the threshold for restricting travel to foreign countries. In the past week, the rate fell in 60 municipalities and rose in 30. 

PM Mette Frederiksen at the opening of Parliament. Photo: Mads Claus Rasmussen / Scanpix.

First MP infected
One person who missed the opening speech was Bjørn Brandenborg, the first member of Parliament to become infected (DK). Brandenborg is a Social Democrat and chair of the Tax Committee who was elected to Parliament in 2019. He took part in a committee meeting last Tuesday at which all participants observed social distancing and hand hygiene. He noticed symptoms the next morning, was tested immediately, and notified his contacts. There have been no reports of other MPs catching the infection since then.

The Minister of Justice has proposed increasing the fine for taking part in gatherings of more than 50 people in order to stop the so-called “pirate parties” (DK) that young people have been caught holding on weekends. The fine is currently DKK 2,500 (USD 400). It will be raised to DKK 4,000 (USD 630) for participants and DKK 10,000 (USD 1,600) for arrangers. The police have extended the closure of two areas in Copenhagen (DK) where young people have held parties and will continue monitoring several other popular hangouts. 

No trick or treat this year
The Health Authority has put a damper on Halloween (DK). It recommends that children not go door to door and avoid large costume parties. It suggests that they invite a few close friends over and enjoy some candy, but it should be served in separate pieces and not eaten from a large bowl. Week 42, beginning on Monday, October 14, is the autumn school vacation, and the Health Authority also recommends recreational activities that do not involve large groups and close contact.

Statens Serum Institute, the infectious diseases agency, announced preliminary results from its antibody tests (DK). It invited 18,000 people to be tested. By August 15, around 6,000 had taken part, and 2.2 percent of them had been infected. The margin of error was fairly large, with a likely range from 1.8 percent to 2.6 percent. Extrapolated to the entire population, that would mean that 90,000 to 130,000 persons in Denmark have been infected. That is in contrast to the official number of confirmed cases on that date of 15,763. One reason the results are uncertain is that not everyone who is infected has antibodies. Although the results are tentative, the SSI believes an infection level of around 2 percent shows that efforts to control the epidemic have generally functioned well.

Update: Restrictions extended
Wednesday, 3pm CET: Minister of Health Magnus Heunicke announced that, despite the recent drop in infections, the restrictions in force will be extended until October 31.

Coronavirus in Denmark: Testing and experimenting

On April 15, an antibody test (DK) was offered to 40,000 hospital staff in Greater Copenhagen with contact to patients. The test will clarify whether the staff who previously stayed home with mild cold symptoms actually had the virus. It will also show which hospital departments are the riskiest and allow staff to take additional precautions. Later it will be offered to hospital staff in the rest of the country. The test has been used on blood donors to get an estimate of how many have been infected beyond the confirmed cases. Thus far, the level is about 2.1 percent. The measure is an indication of herd immunity that can help the authorities decide when to relax restrictions on commercial activity and gatherings. The test is a simple blood test that shows the result in 15 minutes. Although researchers believe that people with antibodies are immune to the virus, those with positive results are advised not to change their behavior and to continue to practice social distancing.

Earlier there had been problems acquiring reliable tests (DK). A large delivery of tests from China was delayed, and another test produced 23 percent false negatives.

Quest for a treatment

Researchers are preparing to begin treating Covid-19 patients with plasma (DK). Martin Tolstrup from the Institute for Clinical Medicine at Aarhus University says that they are now testing the plasma to see whether it stops the virus. The plasma is expected to be given to patients in one or two weeks, and the results will be available in a few months. Researchers around the world are working on similar projects. The method is promising because it can be implemented quickly on a large scale. 

Meanwhile, researchers at two Copenhagen hospitals are conducting an experiment with an arthritis medicine (DK). They hope that the drug will prevent or reduce lung infections and thereby shorten the time that patients need treatment. That will increase the capacity of the entire healthcare system because patients who require oxygen that put pressure on hospital facilities, says  Lars Erik Vølund Kristensen, head of research at the Parker Institute at Bispebjerg and Frederiksberg Hospital. The results of the experiment will not be ready for six months, and the amount of time required depends on how many patients can be recruited for the study. Ironically, Denmark’s success in holding the number of infections down has limited researchers’ ability to conduct experiments on possible treatments. But researchers and doctors in several larger countries are interested in seeing the data from the experiment.

Shortages of patients and customers

Danish hospitals have had high unused capacity (DK) during the crisis because there have been fewer infections than were first forecast when the administration ordered the lockdown on March 13. For example, four wards were prepared for Covid-19 patients at Aarhus University Hospital and only one has been used. Hospitals took fewer patients for other treatments and procedures, and staff were trained for treating Covid-19 patients. It is unfortunate that some other patients have had their treatments postponed, says Kurt Espersen, head of the South Denmark Region, but it is of course positive that the number of serious coronavirus infections is lower than had been expected. This was the right decision, maintains Espersen, because the priority was to avoid the kind of pressure on the hospital system that was occurring in Italy and Spain at that time. 

When shops reopen, they are expected to hold large clearance sales. Since the lockdown began on March 13, sales of clothing have fallen (DK) 50 percent and sales of shoes have fallen a full 90 percent. Retail businesses have set discounts on goods on their webshops, but they have not made a dent in their inventory, which peaks in the spring months. They have ordered new collections that will arrive before the current ones are sold. A significant amount of their sales normally go to tourists, and there is no outlook for tourists in Denmark yet. Retailers fear that they may need to hold clearance sales for the entire summer.

The monarchy endures

Today is Queen Margrethe II's 80th birthday. The customary gathering at Amalienborg Palace Square to wave at her on the balcony has been been canceled, but she will hold a brief interview on TV. In the evening her sons and their wives will visit her, keeping a safe distance, while her grandchildren will send their greetings on social media.