Yesterday the government held a press conference to present the next steps (DK) in the management of the coronavirus in Denmark. They involve several initiatives: a new board dedicated to addressing the pandemic, a revised testing strategy, the implementation of systematic contact tracing, new options for isolating infected persons, and the use of the temporary test centers. The board, which will operate under the Ministry of Justice, will coordinate all these activities. For example, it will manage the availability of protective equipment throughout the country, access to the test and isolation facilities, communications and international collaboration.
The number of tests will increase gradually to include testing for antibodies (DK) in randomly selected citizens. The tests will give an indication of how many people have been infected without showing symptoms. They will be conducted by medical students recruited for the task at the temporary Testcenters set up across the country. There are now 16 Testcenters, and they have the capacity to conduct 10,000 PCR tests (for the virus) and 5,000 tests for antibodies per day.
Hotels and vacation centers
Persons who test positive will undergo self-isolation. If isolation at home is not convenient, they will be offered the opportunity to use an isolation facility. This is indicated in cases where they are not able to isolate themselves from their family adequately or if they live with someone in a high-risk group such as a person with a chronic illness. The municipalities will be responsible for making facilities available in a hotels, vacation centers or other commercial lodging facilities. This option is available only for people who do not require medical supervision in a hospital. Hotels and youth hostels have already offered to make their facilities available.
Quarantining contacts
An infection tracing unit will be set up from the resources in the current coronavirus hotline. It will work with infected people to contact everyone the person has been in contact with – family, coworkers, friends, etc. Infected people will get instructions from their doctors about how to pursue the tracing. Contacts exposed to infected persons will be offered two tests, one four days after exposure and another six days after, and they will be encouraged to self-isolate until the results of the first test are available. Tracing will begin this week, and the testing of contacts will take place at the temporary Testcenters. An app is being developed to supplement the tracing process.
The purpose of these measures is not only to manage the current stage of the epidemic but to be prepared in case of a second wave of infections, although Kåre Mølbak, the head of SSI, the agency responsible for preparedness against infectious diseases, says he believes a second wave is unlikely (DK) because the healthcare sector has learned much in the past two months about how to manage the disease in hospitals and society.
Forced isolation and masks
At the press conference, Health Minister Magnus Heunicke was asked what will happen if an infected person refuses to isolate himself or herself. He said that the law governing the epidemic allows the possibility of forced isolation but it will be used only very rarely, for example with psychiatric patients, if necessary, in order to avert the risk of superspreading.
Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen was asked about the criticism the government has received (DK) about reducing the physical distance guideline from two meters to one meter without warning. She responded that the other political parties had known the Health Authority was working on the requirement and that she had not known any more about it than the other parties at their latest meeting last Thursday.
When Søren Bostrøm, head of the Health Authority, was asked why there is no requirement to wear masks in Denmark, he replied that the Authority had considered the recommendations and concluded that there was no strong documentation supporting a policy that everyone must wear a mask.
Yesterday, SSI, the agency responsible for preparedness for infectious diseases, reported that the reproduction rate, R0, had fallen in the month of April (DK) from 0.9 to 0.7. The figure represents the average number of persons who are infected by a single infected person. If the level is below 1.0, the spread of the infection is declining. The drop has thus occurred since the first phase of the reopening began, with the return to school of children in the lowest classes and the opening of service and professional businesses. That shows that people have been conscientious about following the Health Authority’s guidelines, says Tyra Grove Krause of SSI.
Grove Krause cautions that the figure is an estimate that is more useful as an indication of the direction of the spread of the infection than a precise measure. The choice of criteria used affect the result. The SSI’s figure is based on the number of hospitalizations, not the number of persons who test positive for the coronavirus, and it assumes that it takes an average of 4.7 days for one person to infect another. The favorable results presumably influenced the Health Authority’s recommendations on lowering the recommended physical distancing from two meters to one and the reopening additional businesses and other organizations.
Is one meter enough?
On the day after the Health Authority announced the reduction of the guideline on physical distancing, spokespersons from virtually all of the political parties in Parliament were raising questions about it. Some were surprised that this key recommendation was changed suddenly and without consultation with the other parties after several of them had inquired about it earlier and received no clear answer. Some questioned whether it was safe. Most of them, like Liselotte Blixt of the Danish People’s Party, asked whether the decision was based on healthcare considerations (DK) or practical exigencies, implying that the latter might have weighed too heavily. If it wasn’t necessary to keep two meters’ distance from one another for the past three months, they asked, then why did we do it? Supermarkets have placed tape on the floor to show customers where to stand in line, and hairdressers have moved their chairs apart. Other party leaders criticized the way the decision was made (DK) without their input.
When asked about the change, Søren Brostrøm, the head of the Health Authority, said that it was sound from a healthcare perspective and that the Authority also considered the practical ramifications because the guidelines must be sustainable. He said it consulted other countries’ policies and experience. The WHO recommends a distance of one meter, which is the policy in Norway, where there has been a very small number of infections; Germany and the Netherlands require 1.5 meters’ distance. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen had previously said that the government deferred to the Health Authority on such decisions and that the guidelines could change.
Democracy in action
What all the spokespersons’ comments had in common was that none of them disagreed with the decision itself. Indeed, most of the parties had been arguing strongly for a further relaxation of restrictions. This discussion seems characteristic of the Danish style of political debate. The dissenters are well aware that the pandemic is under control and that Frederiksen’s and Bostrøm’s handling of the crisis has been viewed favorably by the public. The hospitals are not overwhelmed; there are no mass graves, massive job layoffs, long lines for food banks, or dangerous recommendations to drink disinfectants. Yet they feel an obligation to put in their two cents in order to show their constituencies that they still exist and are keeping an eye on developments.
Today shopping centers in Denmark can reopen and people can begin to participate in outdoor sports and other activities. In preparation for phase 2 of the relaxation of pandemic restrictions, the Health Authority yesterday announced an adjustment in its recommendations on hygiene. The most important change is that it will be sufficient for people to keep a distance of one meter (DK) from one another instead of two meters. In reducing the distance, it is falling in line with the guidelines from the WHO and neighboring countries. It still recommends two meters’ distance in situations such as group singing in churches, where there is a heightened risk of infection, and from people in a high-risk group, such as the elderly. The Health Authority is maintaining almost all of its previous guidelines.
Søren Bostrøm (DK), head of the agency, stresses that good hygiene, such as washing hands, using sanitizer and cleaning frequently touched surfaces, is more important than distancing. The other change mentioned in the press release is the lifting of objection to buffets, which apparently applied mainly to schools, since restaurants will not reopen until May 18. Bostrøm says the agency wants to implement sustainable solutions that balance effectiveness and convenience, and that certain measures, such as the availability of santizer in public places, will be with us for a long time. The recommendations will be adjusted gradually as various segments of society and the economy resume activities.
A “dangerous experiment”
Some doctors and researchers are in favor of the change and do not believe that it will result in many additional infections. But of course not all. Allan Randrup Thomsen, Professor of Virology at University of Copenhagen, who is one of the most frequently consulted observers of the pandemic management, calls the change “a dangerous experiment” (DK). In ordinary speech, says Randrup Thomsen, most droplets from the breath fall to the earth within one meter’s distance, but in louder speech they go further. He would maintain a distance of at least 1.5 meters.
The difference between one and meters is not trivial when it comes to determining how many pupils can be together in a classroom and how many customers a restaurant can serve. The change will mean that additional children will be able to attend school for a full day and cafes will have a better chance of turning a profit. The issue of buffets is similar. The food served in buffets is not dangerous, says Jan Pravsgaard Christensen, Professor at the University of Copenhagen’s Institute for Immunology and Mikrobiology. What matters is that people do not crowd together in lines and follow the other recommendations on hygiene.
No carrot without a stick
As I mentioned yesterday, upon the further relaxation of restrictions, the government will also issue a formal prohibition against reopening and large gatherings for organizations that are not allowed to resume activities until phase 3 or 4. The ban, which applies to zoos, museums, fitness centers and boarding schools, was announced yesterday by Justice Minister Nick Hækkerup. If an organization with more than 50 people violates the ban, it will be subject to fines (DK) ranging from DKK 40,000 ($5,700) in the first instance to DKK 150,000 ($21,500) in the third. The police will also have the option of closing the business or organization.
The Copenhagen Zoo and the ARoS art museum in Aarhus had mentioned the possibility of opening despite the general guidelines against it. Erlend Høyersten, the director of ARoS, called the decision “absurd and illogical” (DK). Museums do not pose a higher risk of infection than shopping centers, says Høyersten, and culture should not be assigned a lower priority than commerce in some kind of politics of symbolism. Justice Minister Hækkerup denies that there is any politics of symbolism at play and emphasizes that various institutions needed to be reopened gradually and middle schools, for example, were considered more important than museums by all the parliamentary parties.
After being closed for about two months, shopping centers are preparing to open (DK) tomorrow. They are setting up signs explaining the rules of conduct and bottles of hand sanitizer. They are closing lounges and children’s playrooms. Security guards and customer counters will be posted at the doors to make sure that customers maintain a distance from one another. Vibeke Qvist, the head of the Frederiksberg Center Association in Copenhagen, does not expect a large number of customers at first, but she and the shop owners are happy to get started again.
The government does not want people to think that the lockdown is over and to let things get out of control, however. Along with the resumption of some activities in phase 2, it is also issuing a formal prohibition against activities (DK) that have not yet been approved for reopening. The ban will be enforced by the police, and violations will be subject to penalties, says Minister of Justice Nick Hækkerup. Certain zoos and museums have raised the possibility of opening before they are scheduled to in phase 3 on June 8. Thus far, there has been no official prohibition, and that has led to some confusion at times, for example when a cabinet minister informally disapproved of IKEA’s reopening although it was perfectly legal. Hækkerup sympathizes with organizations that must wait longer to open, but explains that prioritization is necessary in order to maintain control of the spread of the infections.
No jumping the gun
To remind people of the timetable, the police are tweeting about enforcing violations. Yesterday evening in Jutland, two restaurants were charged (DK) with serving food and drinks at outdoor tables. Restaurants and cafes are not scheduled to reopen until May 18. In another Jutland town, 14 people were caught congregating (DK) in a parking lot. Four got away, but ten were charged with exceeding the limit on gatherings.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs extended its advisory against unnecessary foreign travel (DK) until May 31. Jeppe Kofod, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, says that he understands people want to travel and are worried about their summer vacation plans but that conditions under the pandemic do not permit free travel yet. Airlines’ business has suffered greatly during the crisis. In April, the number of passengers on SAS flights fell 95 percent from the level in 2019.
Infections falling despite reopening
SSI, the agency responsible for preparedness against infectious diseases, reported a decline in the reproduction rate (DK), or R0, which measures the average number of people infected by an infected person, despite the first relaxations of the lockdown restrictions. The announcement, which was made in an email response to the Ritzau agency, did not specify the latest measurement. The rate had fallen to 0.6 in mid-April and then, after the first phase of the reopening, had risen back to 0.9 on April 30. The rate is used in the government’s decisions about the relaxation of pandemic restrictions. The SSI cautioned that it is subject to a margin of error and that a new measurement would be made in the coming week.
The wonders of socialism
Readers have referred me to a Friday NY Times column by Nicholas Kristof, “McDonald’s Workers in Denmark Pity Us.” Kristof gives a good overview of the advantages of Denmark’s social democracy, which is derided by some American politicians as “socialism” even while conditions in the US labor market during the pandemic deteriorate at an alarming pace.
Soon after the government announced its plan for phase 2 of the reopening of the economy, as reported yesterday, it finished the outline for phases 3 and 4. Phase 3, which begins on June 8, will cover museums, theaters, outdoor amusement parks, adult education and indoor sports; if the virus remains under control, it will also allow greater physical presence in public workplaces, including the public broadcasters. The limit on gatherings will increase from ten to 50. Phase 4, which begins in early August, covers nightclubs, gyms, swimming pools and universities. No date was set for reopening the borders, an important objective for some of the opposition parties. A decision is expected by June 1.
Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said that the ambitious schedule was made possible by the exemplary behavior of the Danish people in adhering the Health Authority’s guidelines and it was also conditional on the continuation of an acceptable trend in the number of hospitalizations and deaths. The announcement mentions the likelihood of an increase in those figures and stipulates that the timetable depends on the studies made by the Health Authority before the beginning of the next phases.
Overview in English
The English-language daily The Local has coverage of the timetable; the debate over the border opening; the Health Ministry’s report that laid the basis for the plan; the negotiations among the parties, including a useful infographic comparing the lockdown restrictions in the three Scandinavian countries; and interviews with two philosophers on the ethics of lifting the restrictions.
The negotiations on the reopening (DK) of various elements were reported to be difficult at times. There were disagreements on which organizations should resume activities on the basis of the relative risk of infection and their economic importance. Certain parties favored quick normalization, and others emphasized safety; some argued for reopening institutions in different regions on different dates. Alex Vanopslagh, leader of the Liberal Alliance Party, would have preferred a much quicker relaxation of restrictions but noted that it will proceed sooner than in the original plan presented to the other parties by the prime minister. Other parties leaders stressed the need for compromise and commended the possibility of adjusting the plans according to future reports on the status of the pandemic by the Health Ministry.
Social distancing while shopping and dining
The organizations that are about to open have begun making preparations. Department stores (DK), for example, have received a set of guidelines. They stipulate four square meters per person besides the two meters’ distance between persons. They require regular cleaning and disinfection of cashiers’ stations and other contact surfaces and prohibit clearance sales and other special offers that can result in lines and crowding. The reception of the plan by restaurant owners (DK) was mixed. Many are uncertain how much space they must allow for customers and whether they will be able to operate profitably. The industry spokesperson, Katia Østergaard, argues that hotels should receive additional economic aid because they have lost 90 percent of their revenues.
Coronavirus first appeared in France?
Finally, a report that does not yet seem to have penetrated mainstream American news: Doctors in Colmar, France, have found signs of the infection in lung scans from November 16, 2019 (DK); that is, one day before the first case was registered in China. If it’s not fake news, it would throw the question of the pandemic’s origins further in doubt. The region in question was apparently frequented by Chinese tourists, and a Chinese reality TV show was produced there. When you search for an English-language report, you find one on CGTN.com, the “Chinese Global Television Network,” and another on GlobalDomainNews.com, a site presented in very broken English based in "Fairview Kersey, PA." Kersey, an unincorporated town in Fox Township, PA, has a population of 937, a "Fairview Road" and a "PROMISS NEVER TO SPAM." Stay tuned.
On Thursday, May 9, the day before the Great Prayer Day holiday, the government and the other parties reached an agreement on the next phase of the reopening (DK), which will take pace in two stages. On Monday, May 11, shops, shopping centers, professional sports, club sports and other clubs may resume activities. On May 18, restaurants, bars, libraries, middle schools and other youth activities, churches, zoos, and critical public institutions such as the military and the Work Environment offices may open. Some organizations that may not open yet, even though some parties wanted them to, are theaters, boarding schools, fitness centers, night clubs, higher educational institutions and museums. Denmark’s borders will remain closed until at least June 1.
All the reopenings are subject to the Health Authority’s special conditions and guidelines. For example, spectators will not be able to attend professional sports events. Amateur sports must take place outdoors and are still limited to groups of ten persons. Restaurants must maintain a distance between patrons. Libraries will be open only for lending and returns. Only zoos where visitors can remain in their cars may open. All the activities must continue to adhere to the general guidelines on social distancing, good hygiene and use of protective equipment. The government will continue to pursue an aggressive policy of testing, tracing, isolation of infected persons, and systematic spot checks at regular intervals. The parties will negotiate the partial phasing out of the aid package for businesses that reopen.
Disagreement on border and zoos
All the parties agreed on the plan, although each of them gave priority to certain aspects and some weren’t satisfied with the details (DK). The right-wing parties were generally pleased that additional businesses could open, while the left-wing parties emphasized the resumption of middle schools and other youth activities. The Social Liberals and the Conservative Party wanted to open the border. One MP from the Liberal Party, the largest opposition party, said the agreement was too cautious (DK) and wanted to open open zoos and museums and to repeal the ten-person limit on gatherings. The director of the Copenhagen Zoo (DK) was very disappointed that it wouldn’t open for at least a month. Negotiations on the details were reported to be difficult, and several parties disliked the way the Mette Frederiksen announced and “took credit for” the impending agreement on Wednesday before the specifics had been ironed out.
Uncertain outlook for restaurants
Katia Østergaard, the director of Horesta, the industry association for restaurants, hotels and tourism (DK), said that the guidelines according to which its members must operate were not clear and would determine whether or not their operations could be profitable. Østergaard suggested that the authorities follow the policies in effect in Norway. In Denmark, there are physical distancing requirements of two meters generally and four square meters in shops; in Norway, the requirements are half that size. The rules will determine how soon restaurants and cafes will be ready to open, and some will not be able to under the current conditions. Since March, more than 200 restaurants have gone bankrupt, and 11,000 employees in the industry have been laid off.
Economic gains versus infection risk
The plan was based on two expert reports. A report from SSI (DK), the agency for preparedness against infectious diseases, identified most of the activities that were included in Phase 2 as the “basic set” and concluded that the virus could be kept under control and would die out if they resumed operations; that is, reproductive rate of virus could be held under 1.0. The basic set did not include middle schools and restaurants. The report warned that because the overall spread of the infection was low, there was a risk of a second wave if people do not continue to follow the general guidelines on social distancing and good hygiene.
The second report was prepared by three economists. Its main purpose was to determine what activities would have the most beneficial effect on the economy (DK) if they resumed. The conclusion was service businesses, shopping centers, restaurants and cafes. It was a difficult balancing act to select activities that would have the strong economic effect while entailing relatively low risk of infection, said Torben Andersen of Aarhus University, one of the economists on the committee. Fitness centers, for example, would have to wait to reopen because they pose a rather large risk without having great economic significance.
The debate over testing will never end. In a detailed opinion piece, Kenneth Jensen, head doctor specializing in anesthesiology and intensive therapy at Næstved Hospital, questions whether the Health Authority has the capacity to carry out its planned testing strategy (DK). A key problem for testing, he says, is that the number of asymptomatic infected people is three to ten times larger than the number who become ill and they are not being tested. Of those tested recently, only 5-7 percent have been found positive, so number of tests has relatively little value. In addition, the treatment of those who test positive is the same as for anyone else with mild symptoms – self-quarantine at home. The Health Authority’s new policy is that people who test positive must trace their recent contacts, who must all be tested.
Double the testing
Jensen calculates the number of tests required to implement the policy and points out a number of problems, for example the difficulty of identifying all relevant contacts and a seven-day wait for results. He estimates that at least 25,000 must be tested daily, whereas the maximum level thus far has been around 13,000. Jensen also says that spot checks must be made in order to find asymptomatic carriers, that healthcare staff must be tested regularly, and that results must be available within 48 hours. He concludes that because the number of infected persons is now low, more aggressive testing and tracing could reduce the spread of the virus while lockdown restrictions are further relaxed, but the window of opportunity will not be open for long.
No, 30x the testing
That advice is similar to recommendations that the Ministry of Health recently received from an unexpected quarter. On May 1, the Danish Broadcasting Corporation’s Detektor program interviewed Paul Romer, Professor of Economics at New York University and Nobel Prize winner. Romer has been advocating an even more aggressive test-trace-and-isolate policy in the United States in order to allow the economy to reopen quickly. His proposal is that 7 percent of the population should be tested per day until a vaccine is developed; that is, everyone should be tested every two weeks. That will give people the confidence to return to work without much danger of getting infected. In Denmark, this plan would require some 400,000 tests per day. Romer’s argument is that the cost of such extensive testing is much lower than the cost of idling the economy and the concomitant rescue packages, only about DKK 1,800 ($250) per person for a year.
Betting on free-market incentives
When questioned about the feasibility of the plan, Romer goes as far as to propose a bet to Minister of Health Magnus Heunicke: If Denmark offers a prize of, say, DKK 1.4 billion, to the first lab that can produce 1 million tests per day, he believes a lab will achieve this within six months. When asked whether such mass testing is really necessary, he cautions that there was an earlier, milder version of the corona virus and there may be an even more dangerous version in the future. So every country should invest heavily in testing capacity in order to be ready for the next pandemic.
Danish researchers do not think such a drastic suppression policy and extensive testing are necessary in order to continue the lockdown exit since the number of infections remains low and people have been able to adapt to social distancing and stricter hygienic habits. Heunicke didn’t respond to the wager. Instead, the Health Ministry made a referral to its press release about increasing the testing capacity as quickly as possible.
Not so bad after all
On Monday, the government released a chart showing that Denmark ranked second among selected countries in the number of tests it has conducted per million inhabitants. At 42,262, it was 3,500 behind Israel and nearly 8,000 ahead of the third-highest country, Ireland. The chart included the major European countries as well as some countries that have been most successful in stopping the virus – South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore and New Zealand.
(NB: Coronavirus DK will take tomorrow off and return on Friday.)
On Sunday the number of people hospitalized for Covid-19 rose for the first time in a week. The trend has been steadily downward since April 1. The increase prompted the question of whether Denmark is beginning to see the consequences of the relaxation (DK) of restrictions around two weeks ago. The change is insignificant, says Søren Riis Paludan, Professor of Virology and Immunology at Aarhus University: “People feared that after the reopening the curve would fly up again, but that hasn’t been the case. With the degree of opening we have now, the spread is under control. We should be ready to open further.”
Scientific evidence for safe soccer
A ray of hope for a return of the national pastime has appeared. Researchers at Aarhus University have determined that soccer matches in Superliga (DK), the highest professional league in Denmark, can safely resume. Allan Randrup Thomsen, Professor of Immunology and Microbiology at the University of Copenhagen, concurs: “Football [as the sport is called outside of North America] does not pose a real infection risk.” The Health Authority considers that there is a risk only if people are within two meters of each other for 15 minutes. Using that parameter, the researchers estimated, on the basis of an analysis of 14 Superliga matches, that if one player is infected, the other individual players will be within infection range for an average of only one minute and 28 seconds in a match.
That was welcome news for Claus Thomsen, the head of the Superliga association, which has been working on plans to play under special guidelines that will minimize the danger of infections. If the matches resume, they will take place without spectators in the stadiums. The 88-second figure applies only to matches with one infected player, however. With two of them, players would be exposed to the virus for an average of about three minutes; with three infected players, for four and a half minutes. Another study from Italy and Germany offers a cautionary message. It concludes that elite athletes are subject to an unusually high risk because of their heavy breathing during extreme exertion. Neither study has been peer-reviewed.
No-touch football
Meanwhile, the Danish Football Union, the overall governing body for soccer in Denmark, has prepared a set of “corona rules” (DK) – guidelines that will allow local clubs to play according to the pandemic restrictions. The rules are rather extensive: No more than ten people can practice together, including the coach; players must always keep two meters’ distance from one another; touching the ball only with the feet except by the goalkeeper; liberal use of sanitizer; no use of locker rooms and showers. It will not be the familiar rough-and-tumble contact sport as before.
“It’s better than nothing,” says Tom Helligsøe, the head of the IF Lyseng club. Others think the rules are too strict, for example sanitizing all the balls and other equipment. “How can a ball infect you if you’re not allowed to head it, pick it up or trap it with your body?” asks Jan Busk, the head of the Frederiksberg Alliance, which has 2,000 members. The rules need to approved by the Health Authority before the clubs can resume activities.
No to American pet quarantine
After dogs and cats in the US have been found to be infected with the corona virus, the CDC has issued social distancing rules for pets (DK): Keep cats indoors; keep dogs on a tight leash, at least two meters’ from other dogs as well as humans; limit contact with them. But they aren’t necessary in Denmark, says Randrup Thomsen, who is consulted by journalists about pandemic measures almost daily. There are still no reports that pets have infected people. Nevertheless, if you are in high-risk group, adds Thomsen, you can consider keeping your cat indoors, although that may be difficult for a cat that is used to being out. “But the most important thing is not to let them lick your face. In principle, you should never let them do that because they can infect you with all kinds of diseases.”
“April is the cruelest month,” begins T.S. Eliot’s classic modernist poem The Wasteland, which was written only two or three years after the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918-19. This year many would agree, not only because of the loss of lives to Covid-19 but also because of the loss of livelihoods and businesses.
Last week the venerable Arnold Busck bookstore chain closed (DK) all of its 29 stores and filed for bankruptcy. Most of the stores have been closed since mid-March, when the lockdown went into effect. Certain locations were allowed to open under special conditions, but it was not enough to save the business, which has not yet received the payments from the government’s rescue package. In any case, the aid would not have been large enough to save the business, which has suffered losses in the past two years because of problems implementing a new IT system. The chain has been a family business since it was founded in 1896.
Cooling their jets
Also last week, SAS announced that it would lay off up to 40 percent of its workforce in Scandinavia. That is the equivalent of 5,000 full-time positions, including 1,700 in Denmark. The government rescue packages allowed the airline to furlough 90 percent of its workers when the lockdown went into effect, and it has received EUR 275 in emergency credit guarantees from Sweden and Denmark. But now it says that it does not expect the industry to return to pre-pandemic activity levels for years and it needs to adjust its staff accordingly.
In a related story, Denmark’s second-largest airport, Billund Airport in Jutland, is almost empty these days. The airport reports that the number of its passengers in April fell a full 99 percent (DK) from the level in 2019. Managing Director Jan Hessellund, says that its fate depends on when the Ministry of Foreign Affairs eases its travel restrictions. Denmark’s borders are closed and all unnecessary travel is discouraged until May 10, when the next phase of the reopening is to begin. The only flights from Billund at present are to Amsterdam and Romania. Air traffic at Copenhagen-Kastrup Airport is down around 95 percent.
Look on the bright side
In 2020 the number of traffic accidents (DK) in the month of March was the lowest since 1985, when the Danish Road Directorate began compiling records. They fell from 248 in 2019 to 159, and the number of traffic deaths fell from 14 in 2019 to 9. The decline is doubtless an effect of the lockdown, which caused a reduction in the number of passenger cars on the road, says Marianne Foldberg Steffensen of the Road Directorate.
With the sharp decline in air travel and a 25 percent drop in road traffic, carbon dioxide emissions will fall (DK) by about one-sixth in Denmark during the current lockdown period running until May 10. That is the result of calculations made by Brian Vad Mathiesen, Professor of Energy Planning at Aalborg University, for the Danish Broadcasting Corporation. If energy consumption returns to normal afterward, the reduction for the year would amount to 5 percent of the annual level.
The dark side of the bright side
For Vad Mathiesen, however, the main conclusion to be drawn is that it will be extremely difficult for the country to reach its target of reducing emissions by 70 percent by 2030. It would need to cut emissions by a similar amount every year until then, and it cannot afford to shut down commercial activity to the same degree. Climate Minister Dan Jørgensen agrees that meeting the target will be an enormous challenge and it must be accomplished by innovations in energy production and transport rather than simply by reducing consumption.
A couple of days ago I reported that Kåre Mølbak of SSI, the agency responsible for preparedness for infectious diseases, scolded teenagers for not following social distancing guidelines. Mølbak cited test statistics showing that the number of infections in that age group had doubled over a few weeks. Since then, Mølbak has been criticized (DK) by representatives of several political parties for shaming a particular segment of the population, for not delivering the statistics in question to the MPs, and for making misleading comparisons between the test results in the two periods.
The politicians, including Stinus Lindgren, the healthcare spokesperson for the Social Liberal Party, note that the testing policy changed had changed between the two periods that Mølbak cited, with the addition of tests for people with only mild sympoms. So they want to know whether the change in the results was owing to an actual rise in the number of infections or the change in testing. They have requested the statistics but have not received them. The information is relevant for the parties’ negotiations on the next phase of the relaxation of the lockdown because high schools are still closed and the SSI has ranked them in the medium-risk category.
Too easy a target?
Peder Hvelplund of the Red-Green Party also criticizes the practice of mixing healthcare research and policy. Reproving a group of citizens is a political act, and it should be based on adequate documentation of the problem. “It is foolish to shame the young (DK),” said Jakob Mark, the parliamentary group leader for the Socialist People’s Party. “The infection statistics show that the percentage of young people who are infected is declining.”
It is sometimes unclear whether politicians or journalists are referring to the percentage of infections among those tested or among the total number of infections. Teenagers still represent a very small portion of infected persons, but if they are more likely to be asymptomatic and not develop Covid-19, that does not reduce the risk that they may infect others while they are infected. None of the politicians quoted say that the accusations were unwarranted. On the basis of reports of the gatherings the week before in the Islands Brygge waterfront area as well as my own informal observations, they are generally accurate, with the proviso that the behavior of those in their twenties may not be much different.
Tourism in the plague year
Frank Jensen, the Mayor of Copenhagen, wants to open restaurants and cafes soon (DK) for outdoor service if Denmark is to make a success of the summer tourist season. Jensen has invited the mayors of the country’s six largest cities to a meeting to plan a reopening of the tourism industry. He said that in Copenhagen alone the industry will lose DKK 4.7 billion ($670 million) in revenues in March, April and May. Jensen notes that restaurants must take measures to ensure that social distancing guidelines are followed, for example by using the space in parking lots to keep patrons apart.
Restaurants have been open in Sweden throughout the pandemic. Oslo, which has allowed restaurants to operate without serving alcohol, will lift the ban on alcohol on May 6. That will make Copenhagen the only Scandinavian capital where restaurants are closed and put it at a disadvantage in attracting tourists. On Friday, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said that she expects the next phase of the lockdown exit to proceed on May 10 but did not specify what types of businesses and organizations would be allowed to open.
