Coronavirus DK: Outbreak of B117 at schools

It’s a race between the slow-moving vaccines in the European Union bureaucracy and the opportunistic B117 mutation. 

Infections, hospitalizations, and deaths had been falling steadily for more than a month (DK) under the tight restrictions that are scheduled to run until February 28. The only easing since Christmas was opening schools up to the fourth grade. 

PM Mette Frederiksen burned in effigy at lockdown protest. Photo: Mads Claus Rasmussen.

Growing impatience with restrictions
As the situation improved, an increasing number of people have been agitating to allow stores, small businesses and schools to open up. Demonstrators from the Facebook group Men in Black have clashed with police and burned Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen in effigy (DK) with the slogan “she must and shall be put down,” that is, euthanized. Another Facebook group planned a coordinated business opening in defiance of the rules.

There is a conspiracy theory element in the protests – people claiming that the pandemic is a hoax and a plot for pharma companies to profit and government to install permanent surveillance measures. But most lockdown skeptics seem to be motivated by economic hardship. Even rule-abiding retirees who don’t need get out and mix with people are getting restless. Last week the government announced that it would announce [sic] something about the restrictions this Wednesday, and many had anticipated further easing.

Now it's going after the children

Then two severe outbreaks occurred, one of them at a school in Kolding, Jutland (DK), where a case of the UK B117 mutation infected 67 people. Children had been thought to be largely resistant to the coronavirus, but it appears that the B117 mutation infects them more easily than the previous strains. Children do not usually become very sick, but they can become hidden superspreaders. 

The prevalence of the B117 mutation has been rising steadily and now accounts for more than 45% of cases. In the past two weeks, cases among young people under 20 were almost as high as for those 20-60. One-third of the 250 people infected in Kolding were under the age of 10. The municipality closed all the schools and day-care centers. It had wanted to test every resident age two and above in the coming week, but raised the threshold to 12.

Percentage of UK B117 coronavirus variant in Danish spot checks. 

Wildly optimistic vaccine prediction 

Meanwhile, the vaccine is still delayed. The government recently announced that it would be prepared to administer 400,000 vaccinations per day (DK). But at present only 10,000 people are being vaccinated per day, and the total vaccinated in two months is under 300,000. That is 5% of the population, which is still high by European standards. But the government apparently doesn’t buy the argument for First Doses First and has given second doses to 3%. People also ask why, in light of the delays in the EU plan, it hasn’t tried to buy the Russian vaccine directly.

The government had estimated that the entire population could get one dose by the end of May and a second by June 27. But if young people and children also need to be vaccinated, the process could go on through the summer. It also adds the standard warnings that after the vaccinations we will need to continue to take precautions, to see how long immunity from the vaccine lasts, and if an annual shot is needed, to see how the vaccine handles new mutations. There’s no return to normal on the calendar. 

Coronavirus DK: Restrictions extended until March

In a press conference yesterday, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced that Denmark will extend its tight pandemic restrictions (DK) an additional three weeks from February 7 to February 28. The main reason she gave was the B117 mutation: “We have seen how quickly the new mutation can bring things out of control. Therefore, we cannot ease the restrictions. Even though more people are being vaccinated, we must go forward carefully.” The measures include the closure of all restaurants, bars and retail businesses, except for supermarkets and pharmacies and a limit on gatherings to five persons. Frederiksen left open the possibility of allowing the youngest pupils, from kindergarten to fourth grade, to return to school before March.

PM Mette Frederiksen bringing bad news yet again. Photo: Liselotte Sabroe/Ritzau Scanpix.

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The pandemic figures have been falling (DK) since the restrictions were put in place just before Christmas. Daily infections have dropped from around 3,000 to around 500; the percentage of positive tests from a peak of 4% to 0.6%; total hospitalizations from about 900 to 600; and the reproduction number from above 1.0 to 0.7. The percentage of infections deriving from the B117 mutation, however, has risen steadily to 13.%

Vaccine trouble
As in other European countries, the delivery of vaccines has been delayed (DK). Denmark is part of the European Union deal on Pfizer and BioNTech vaccines. The State Serum Institute estimates that the vaccination of groups with lower priority will come around five weeks later than originally scheduled, in April and May. The agency still hopes that everyone will be vaccinated before the end of June. It is pursuing a policy of giving people the second dose of the vaccine three weeks after the first instead of the First Doses First approach taken by some countries in which the second dose is postponed for months in order to give more people the first dose sooner. Thus far, 3.15% of the population have received the first dose and 0.64% have received two doses.

An increasing number of business owners and others are disappointed and angered by the extension. Around 10% of businesses are reported to have serious liquidity problems and are at risk of going bankrupt. In response, the government today announced a new aid package (DK) of loans and other measures worth DKK 170 billion (USD 27 billion). 

Travel scandals
Others are also becoming impatient with the restrictions. There have been a couple of minor scandals recently concerning violations of travel restrictions. Some people have taken to ski resorts in Austria (DK), one of the main hotspots one year ago, under the guise of pursing job opportunities. Last week, it was reported that 50 infected persons had entered Denmark from Dubai (DK) in January. Some 33 of them arrived after the January 9 requirement that passengers coming to Denmark be tested. They had all received negative test results in Dubai before boarding the flight, and there is suspicion of “irregularities” in the testing in Dubai. Some of the travelers were professional athletes and influencers who shared their trip on social media despite the restrictions on travel abroad. After this discovery, the Danish authorities suspended flights from Dubai to Denmark for five days.

After double overtime
But all isn’t doom and gloom. On Wednesday, at the World Handball Championships, the Danish men’s team beat host team Egypt by a score of 39-38 on the final penalty shot in “the most insane handball game in the history of the world,” according to the commentator Henrik Liniger. The team qualified for the semifinal against Spain, which you can watch this evening at 8:30 pm CET (2:30 pm EST) on dr.dk.

Danish reactions to Biden’s inauguration

 Today we take a break from disease and see what Danish politicians have to say about the changing of the guard in the White House. It might not be very surprising, but let’s indulge in a little celebration and relief. It’s been a long four years for Western Europe to watch its greatest ally go rogue and then descend into antidemocratic chaos. Here are the party leaders:

Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen (DK) of the Social Democratic party:

“I hope that President Biden will be a unifying force after the unrest and division that we have unfortunately seen grow in the United States.”

Jakob Ellemann-Jensen (DK) of the Liberal Party:

“Now the world will be a more decent place … I look forward to being able to recognize an America that takes global leadership and is engaged in its surroundings.”

Pia Olsen Dyhr (DK) of the Socialist People’s Party: 

“Such a festive day. It’s hard not to be enthusiastic.”

Sofie Carsten Nielsen (DK) of the Social Liberal party:

“American democracy is being challenged, and it will be a gigantic task to gather people together. But today I will allow myself to hope … We must speak out against populism - but not turn our backs on the people who pursue populism. For we must speak together and solve the problems that nurture discouragement and the experience of loss of control and distrust of the establishment.”

Pernille Skipper (DK) of the Red-Green Party, retweeting a thread with photos of “some of the weirdest & dumbest sh*t our failed dictator did…”:

“Now I dare again to make fun of him … Priceless”:

Former leader of the free world staring into the sun during a solar eclipse

On the significance for the world 

In an interview on Danish television (DK), Anders Fogh Rasmussen, former Danish prime minister (from the right-wing Liberal Party) and NATO general secretary, was asked, “Is there anything about Trump’s tenure you will miss?”

“No, not a single thing. He will certainly go down in history as the worst president the United States has ever had. He created division in the US, and he weakened the free world outside of the country. . . . He leaves a more insecure world than the one he took over. So it is a great relief for us all that he is gone, and I look forward very much to Biden as president.”

Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod added:

“[Trump] dragged the United States out of the world at a time when it had the greatest need for American leadership … The United States has the best in the world and the worst in the world gathered together in one place. . . . And what we saw on January 6, that was one of the worst things in the world.”

Coronavirus DK: Riots, Danish style

Perhaps inspired by the MAGA mob that stormed the US Capitol building, a Danish group calling itself “Men in Black” held protest demonstrations in Copenhagen (DK) and Aalborg yesterday evening. The demonstrations had been announced in advance and were therefore legal. Demonstrations are the only exception to the limit on public gatherings. Several hundred people - indeed mostly attired in black, both guys and gals - met up at the Copenhagen City Hall Plaza around 7 p.m. to listen to speakers who led them in chants: “Freedom for Denmark! We have had enough!” 

The purpose of event was apparently to complain about lockdown restrictions, which have recently been tightened in Denmark, as they have nearly everywhere else. I say “apparently” because that was how it was described by more than one journalist on the scene. The police also reported that they recognized some figures from the “hooligan scene,” that is, soccer fans who fight with supporters of rival teams. 

Demonstrators at CPH City Hall Plaza. Photo: Jonas Moestrup / TV 2

At various times, the speakers expressed objections to the mask requirement and other restrictions, warned that the vaccine is dangerous, and asserted that the coronavirus crisis was a hoax (DK): “We are mad, we are tired, and we are about to go crazy. Where is that virus?” Individual protestors interviewed advocated the theory of a worldwide conspiracy led by Bill Gates and the pharma industry, claiming also that the Danish state had engineered the bankruptcy of small shops so that it could take them over for financial gain. In recent months there have been a few other demonstrations against restrictions, which have all been peaceful. 

“Smash the city in a non-violent way”
In the beginning, the crowd was content to light torches and listen to its leaders, who urged them on with a distinctly Danish moderation: “Are you ready to smash the city in a non-violent way?” The crowd might have had trouble interpreting that exhortation, perhaps unique in the history of insurrectionary war cries. They began shooting fireworks (which are legal only around New Year’s Eve), throwing beer bottles, and then marching down Strøget, the main pedestrian street in the commercial district. 

The police were well prepared for them, however. Vans full of them were waiting on Strøget with their batons drawn, and they drove the crowd back to City Hall Plaza. They announced over loudspeakers that the demonstration was over and people should disperse, “in the name of the Queen and the Law.” The crowd broke up into smaller groups and headed down side streets, with much confusion, taunting, and yelling. There seemed to be little direct fighting between the factions, although the demonstrators shot fireworks at police vans. 

Quick and painless
The demonstrators continued into the Nørrebro district, with the police following close after. The police arrested several people for fireworks violations, resisting arrest, and attacking officers. Smaller groups of up to one hundred coalesced at a few locations, and there were low-key confrontations. But by around 9:30 p.m., activity had quieted down and the police announced that it was “slowly putting the city to bed.”

The demonstrations in Aalborg were smaller and were dispersed even more quickly. A total of 23 people were arrested. No one was reported injured in either city. You can see several brief video clips at the links.

Restrictions extended / Get MEET THE DANES for free

Special limited-time offer
On the Kindle edition of Meet the Danes on the first weekend of what should be a better year (Jan. 2-3): The price is reduced to $0.00, which converts to DKK 0,00.

Stay hunkered down
At a press conference yesterday, December 29, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, who may have aged five years in 2020, announced that the restrictions imposed last week would be extended an additional two weeks (DK) from January 3 to January 17. “The situation regarding infection figures, hospitalizations and deaths is now more serious than it was in the spring,” she said. Small businesses, retail outlets except for supermarkets and pharmacies, bars, and restaurants except for takeout must remain closed.

Healthcare staff conducting Covid-19 test. Photo: Niels Christian Vilmann © Scanpix.

The number of daily infections has fallen from the peak of 4,000 a week ago, but several nursing homes have seen serious outbreaks. With 900 admissions, hospitals are under pressure (DK) to find vacant beds and are postponing all non-urgent operations. 

Netflix and chill NYE
Ministers and health officials warn people to skip New Year’s Eve parties (DK) this year: Cancel plans to see people that you don’t normally see; limit gatherings to your household and perhaps a few familiar persons, no more than ten; avoid popular outdoor sites. The police will close the City Hall Plaza, which traditionally attracts the largest crowds.

Coronavirus DK: Lockdown redux

Like most other Western European countries, Denmark is going back into total lockdown. On Wednesday, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and the pandemic task force held another press conference (DK) to announce further restrictions beyond the ones implemented last week. “We are doing it,” said Frederiksen, “because an epidemic that runs out of control will have serious consequences and more serious consequences than closing down now will have.”

Mette Frederiksen and Magnus Heunicke at press conference. Photo: Mads Claus Rasmussen © Scanpix.

Record-high infections

The risk rating for the entire country was raised to 4, the second-highest level. On the same day as the press conference, the State Serum Institute reported the highest number of infections ever, 3,692. More than 22,000 cases were registered in the past week, and hospitalizations rose by 54 to 493. 

The following additional organizations and activities were ordered to close (DK) during the coming week:

• Beginning today, Thursday, the 17th, shopping centers and department stores.
• Beginning on Monday, the 21st, boarding schools; and small businesses; and the remaining elementary school pupils, from kindergarten to the fourth grade. Other students had already been attending classes online.
• From December 25 to January 3, all retails shops except supermarkets and pharmacies.

Christmas not canceled

The limit on gatherings is unchanged at ten, but Frederiksen urged people to limit Christmas festivities as much as possible. Earlier, the State Serum Institute estimated that the Christmas holidays would cause the number of infections to double. Certain researchers have recommended closing the Great Belt Bridge, which connects Zealand to Funen and Jutland, in order to prevent the virus from spreading from the hotspot of Greater Copenhagen. The government has decided against it, however, because Christmas is a “special holiday,” said Søren Bostrøm, head of the Healthcare Authority. The police noted their concerns about New Year’s Eve, warning people not to gather at the traditional locations such as Copenhagen City Hall Plaza.

Exception for daycare centers

The only major institutions that aren’t closing are daycare centers, and the leaders and staff are complaining (DK) about it. Children do not often get sick, but they infect their parents, they note. Many staff members are sick or quarantined, putting more pressure on those who remain. The government’s rationale, according to Magnus Heunicke, Minister of Health, is that someone has to take care of the children of essential workers, such as healthcare staff and the police, and the Health Authority does not consider the risks at daycare centers to be high. “The healthcare system is under pressure,” said Bostrøm, “and we need to prioritize so that the staff can take care of the sickest patients.” That means, among other things, that elective surgery may be postponed until January.

Frederiksen doubts that these latest measures will have a significant effect on the Danish economy, which has performed better in 2020 than had been expected during the lockdown in the spring. The government is already at work on a new relief package for businesses and employees who are affected by the lockdown. 

New release: Meet the Danes: a novel

Here's my excuse for slacking off on Coronravirus DK earlier this year, when things were going much better in Denmark. I have spent my lockdown time dusting off an old manuscript from the vault and shining it up.

Now I'm publishing my first novel:

 From the back cover:

Meet the Danes is a rollicking satire of 1980s American pop culture disastrously transplanted into the unsuspecting nation of Denmark … and Hans Christian Andersen’s fairy-tale land will never be the same.

When newlywed but jobless academic Norman McKay follows his wife, Kirsten, back to her homeland, he struggles to fit in—until by chance he gets recruited to help launch Denmark’s first commercial television network, DK2. With programming fueled by Norman’s twisted take on American viewing habits, DK2 sparks a culture war that quickly spirals out of control, sowing confusion, political controversy, violent resistance, and murder. Norman’s increasingly desperate attempts to salvage DK2 and prove his goodwill only end up sabotaging his marriage, incurring a centerfold’s wrath, and provoking U.S. military aggression against its puny NATO ally.

Can Norman pull the plug before it’s too late? Television overtakes reality and reality imitates television as the world’s oldest kingdom careens into surrealistic turmoil.

Readers of the blog will find the tone of the book rather different, but I hope you will enjoy it. Please share this announcement with anyone you think might be interested.

Paperback and Kindle editions are available on the Amazon sites—in the US, the UK, and Germany—and the paperback will soon be available on other online bookstores. 

Coronavirus DK: Second wave takes its toll on social activity

Yesterday, Monday, December 7, the Danish government announced a new set of restrictions for the capital region and the two other largest cities. It was the day that the restrictions announced last week took effect and also the first day with more than 2,000 new infections. The State Serum Institute had presented a projection (DK) showing that, if nothing were done, the healthcare system could come under pressure before Christmas, with more than 4,000 daily infections and 500 hospitalizations. Increasing the tracing activity wouldn’t be sufficient to stop the spread from accelerating. The situation could be worse than in the spring, the report said, since there could be a shortage of healthcare staff because of a greater emphasis on quarantining people who are exposed to the virus. 

Back to takeout for urban eateries. Photo: Oscar Scott Carl © Scanpix.

These are the latest measures (DK), which apply from Wednesday, December 9, to January 3:

• Thirty-eight municipalities, with a total of 2.8 million residents – almost half the country – will be partially locked down.
• Restaurants and bars may not serve guests; they can offer takeout.
• Theaters, concert halls, museums, libraries and other public buildings are closed.
• Schools and universities from the fifth grade upwards must operate online; daycare centers will stay open.
• Civil servants are to work at home as much as possible.
• Indoor sports and other recreational activities are closed; professional sports events can continue, with a limit of 500 spectators.
• People in the affected municipalities should comply with these restrictions generally and not travel to other regions in order to participate in the banned activities.
• Families should limit Christmas gatherings to ten people.

The usual debate
Two virologists who have often been consulted about the pandemic disagree about the decision (DK). Søren Riis Paludan from Aarhus University thinks that the government should have waited to implement the restrictions until December 20, when the country normally closes down partially for the holidays, because of the high costs for education and the economy. 

On the other hand, Allan Randrup Thomsen of the University of Copenhagen says the new restrictions should have been included in the policies announced last week. He believes that recent half-measures such as closing bars and restaurants at 10 p.m. have not worked because people simply adjust their behavior, by going out earlier, for example. The researchers do agree, however, that Christmas traditions pose an increased threat of infection and that the course of the pandemic depends on people taking responsibility themselves for minimizing the dangers. 

Good news for country inns
Economists are sounding the alarm (DK) that, because of the new measures, business activity will get off to a slow start in 2021, when it was supposed to recover. Jeppe Juul Borre from Arbejdernes Landsbank notes that 60 percent of the country’s hospitality industry, which has already been the hardest hit by the pandemic, lies in the affected municipalities. He has reduced his GDP estimate for this year and warns that unemployment could rebound after falling over the summer.

There will always be arguments on both sides. Some political parties are criticizing the government (DK) for waiting too long to act, and some restaurants outside the cities are reporting a surge in reservations (DK) from people in the lockdown areas.

Coronavirus DK: Making Christmas safe for grandparents

Yesterday the Danish government held a press conference to announce new restrictions (DK) because of the persistently high level of infections in the Greater Copenhagen region. The pandemic is not accelerating significantly, and the hospitals are not filling. But in past the month infections have remained much higher than in the spring, and they hit a record number yesterday (DK), at 1,468.

Minister of Health Magnus Heunicke, along with several other officials, presented the new measures, which take effect on December 7. The restrictions apply to 17 municipalities, which on average have a higher incidence of infection and higher positive test rate than the rest of the country. Heunicke explained that the restrictions are necessary because the pandemic is expected to spread more easily during the winter months and people are also more likely to gather during the holidays. He acknowledged that people are tired of pandemic and the restrictions but urged everyone to comply during the coming month because of the prospect of vaccine becoming available early in next year.

Invitation to all-inclusive staycation © Grafik: Mads Peter Ogstrup Nielsen

Talking about you, young people
Heunicke focused on measures to contain the spread of the virus among students and young adults. The most striking trend in infection statistics in the past few weeks has been a disproportionate number of cases in the 10-19 and 20-29 age groups. This reflects the facts that young people circulate more widely and may be less concerned about the virus than older people because they experience milder symptoms and recover more easily. But Heunicke cautioned that even if they are not threatened as seriously, they still pose a risk to others, particularly during the holidays when families gather across generations. He issued what amounted to a plea to this group to moderate their behavior until the vaccine can be dispensed.

The main initiative in the new measures is therefore a campaign, beginning today, to test everyone from 15 to 25 in the metropolitan region before Christmas. That is around 200,000 young people. There will be mobile units visiting schools and universities as well as additional testing capacity at existing test centers. The tracing staff will be increased, and there will be better conditions at isolation facilities, including meals free of charge. Other measures include limitations on contact for schoolchildren in classrooms and a maximum of 10 in sports and other after-school activities.

Work at home, shop alone, party next year
Workplaces and higher educational institutions are urged to conduct activities online. Large retail outlets and shopping centers are to monitor customer traffic and allow more space per customer, and people are urged to do their Christmas shopping alone. There are selective restrictions and bans on visiting nursing homes that have seen outbreaks. People are urged generally to see as few others as possible, with a maximum of 10 at both private and public gatherings. 

Heunicke and the other officials noted that the situation in Denmark is not as dire and the new measures are not as strict as in several other European countries, but the country has recently had to deal with outbreaks at mink farms and in the western suburbs and it must remain vigilant. The main purpose of effort is to avert a surge of infections that could take place after people travel and gather for holiday shopping and gatherings.

Coronavirus DK: Of mink and ministers

Like most everywhere else, Denmark is suffering from the second wave, but it is much milder here than in the larger European countries and in its misguided neighbor Sweden. That hasn’t prevented a political scandal about what should have been a secondary issue, though. 

Mink enjoying their last days in captivity. Photo: Mads Claus Rasmussen © Scanpix.

First, an overdue summary of the health situation (DK):

• Cases of infection (yesterday/total): 1,220 / 64,551 (800-1,200 in past month)
• Tested (yesterday/total): 68,750 / 6,455,895
• Hospitalized (yesterday/total): net -8 / 259
• Intensive (yesterday/total): net -3 / 41
• Recovered (yesterday/total): 1,265 / 49,961
• Deaths (yesterday/total): 4 / 768
• Percentage of positive tests: 1.6% (1.3%-1.9% in past month)
• Reproduction number (est.): 1.1
• Deaths per million: 133 (vs. Norway 55; Sweden 614; USA 751; UK 772; Italy 755)

And a summary of the restrictions in effect (DK):

• Face masks required on public transportation, in public buildings, in supermarkets and shopping centers, at doctors’ offices, clinics and hospitals; partial requirement at schools and other educational institutions. 
• Limit on gatherings to 10 people in public places; recommended also for private gatherings.
• Limit of 500 people at sports events, concerts and churches.
• Restaurants and bars close at 10 pm. Masks required except when sitting down. Nightclubs closed. Sale of alcohol banned everywhere after 10 pm.
• The municipalities in northern Jutland that were closed for travel have reopened.

Minkgate
The big story of the past week or two has been the government's handling of the infections discovered at mink farms in Jutland. It has been well-covered in English-language media. The story morphed from being about the health threat of the outbreak to a scandal about Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s premature and illegal order to destroy 15 million mink and then Agriculture Minister Mogens Jensen’s apparent disregard for several warnings about the spread. Frederiksen has rescinded the order and apologized, and the government has reached a compromise on culling the mink and compensating the breeders, although the measures have not been enacted yet and Opposition parties have been critical of the entire series of events.

Agriculture minister and chickens also face termination
Denmark is the largest mink fur exporter in the world. Kopenhagen Fur (DK), the auction house for some 1,500 breeders in Denmark, recently announced that it would close over the next two or three years. In the spring and summer, Frederiksen enjoyed high approval ratings for her handling of epidemic and withstood criticism of the lockdown from the business-friendly right-wing parties. Now it appears that more people are suffering “corona fatigue” and are also tiring of her relatively autocratic style of governing. Even the government’s supporting parties are saying that Jensen should resign (DK). 

On top of this came a discovery of serious cases of bird flu (DK) earlier this month. Some 25,000 chickens have been culled, and exports of chicken and eggs outside the EU have been suspended. This outbreak poses no threat to humans.