Today shopping centers in Denmark can reopen and people can begin to participate in outdoor sports and other activities. In preparation for phase 2 of the relaxation of pandemic restrictions, the Health Authority yesterday announced an adjustment in its recommendations on hygiene. The most important change is that it will be sufficient for people to keep a distance of one meter (DK) from one another instead of two meters. In reducing the distance, it is falling in line with the guidelines from the WHO and neighboring countries. It still recommends two meters’ distance in situations such as group singing in churches, where there is a heightened risk of infection, and from people in a high-risk group, such as the elderly. The Health Authority is maintaining almost all of its previous guidelines.
Søren Bostrøm (DK), head of the agency, stresses that good hygiene, such as washing hands, using sanitizer and cleaning frequently touched surfaces, is more important than distancing. The other change mentioned in the press release is the lifting of objection to buffets, which apparently applied mainly to schools, since restaurants will not reopen until May 18. Bostrøm says the agency wants to implement sustainable solutions that balance effectiveness and convenience, and that certain measures, such as the availability of santizer in public places, will be with us for a long time. The recommendations will be adjusted gradually as various segments of society and the economy resume activities.
A “dangerous experiment”
Some doctors and researchers are in favor of the change and do not believe that it will result in many additional infections. But of course not all. Allan Randrup Thomsen, Professor of Virology at University of Copenhagen, who is one of the most frequently consulted observers of the pandemic management, calls the change “a dangerous experiment” (DK). In ordinary speech, says Randrup Thomsen, most droplets from the breath fall to the earth within one meter’s distance, but in louder speech they go further. He would maintain a distance of at least 1.5 meters.
The difference between one and meters is not trivial when it comes to determining how many pupils can be together in a classroom and how many customers a restaurant can serve. The change will mean that additional children will be able to attend school for a full day and cafes will have a better chance of turning a profit. The issue of buffets is similar. The food served in buffets is not dangerous, says Jan Pravsgaard Christensen, Professor at the University of Copenhagen’s Institute for Immunology and Mikrobiology. What matters is that people do not crowd together in lines and follow the other recommendations on hygiene.
No carrot without a stick
As I mentioned yesterday, upon the further relaxation of restrictions, the government will also issue a formal prohibition against reopening and large gatherings for organizations that are not allowed to resume activities until phase 3 or 4. The ban, which applies to zoos, museums, fitness centers and boarding schools, was announced yesterday by Justice Minister Nick Hækkerup. If an organization with more than 50 people violates the ban, it will be subject to fines (DK) ranging from DKK 40,000 ($5,700) in the first instance to DKK 150,000 ($21,500) in the third. The police will also have the option of closing the business or organization.
The Copenhagen Zoo and the ARoS art museum in Aarhus had mentioned the possibility of opening despite the general guidelines against it. Erlend Høyersten, the director of ARoS, called the decision “absurd and illogical” (DK). Museums do not pose a higher risk of infection than shopping centers, says Høyersten, and culture should not be assigned a lower priority than commerce in some kind of politics of symbolism. Justice Minister Hækkerup denies that there is any politics of symbolism at play and emphasizes that various institutions needed to be reopened gradually and middle schools, for example, were considered more important than museums by all the parliamentary parties.
After being closed for about two months, shopping centers are preparing to open (DK) tomorrow. They are setting up signs explaining the rules of conduct and bottles of hand sanitizer. They are closing lounges and children’s playrooms. Security guards and customer counters will be posted at the doors to make sure that customers maintain a distance from one another. Vibeke Qvist, the head of the Frederiksberg Center Association in Copenhagen, does not expect a large number of customers at first, but she and the shop owners are happy to get started again.
The government does not want people to think that the lockdown is over and to let things get out of control, however. Along with the resumption of some activities in phase 2, it is also issuing a formal prohibition against activities (DK) that have not yet been approved for reopening. The ban will be enforced by the police, and violations will be subject to penalties, says Minister of Justice Nick Hækkerup. Certain zoos and museums have raised the possibility of opening before they are scheduled to in phase 3 on June 8. Thus far, there has been no official prohibition, and that has led to some confusion at times, for example when a cabinet minister informally disapproved of IKEA’s reopening although it was perfectly legal. Hækkerup sympathizes with organizations that must wait longer to open, but explains that prioritization is necessary in order to maintain control of the spread of the infections.
No jumping the gun
To remind people of the timetable, the police are tweeting about enforcing violations. Yesterday evening in Jutland, two restaurants were charged (DK) with serving food and drinks at outdoor tables. Restaurants and cafes are not scheduled to reopen until May 18. In another Jutland town, 14 people were caught congregating (DK) in a parking lot. Four got away, but ten were charged with exceeding the limit on gatherings.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs extended its advisory against unnecessary foreign travel (DK) until May 31. Jeppe Kofod, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, says that he understands people want to travel and are worried about their summer vacation plans but that conditions under the pandemic do not permit free travel yet. Airlines’ business has suffered greatly during the crisis. In April, the number of passengers on SAS flights fell 95 percent from the level in 2019.
Infections falling despite reopening
SSI, the agency responsible for preparedness against infectious diseases, reported a decline in the reproduction rate (DK), or R0, which measures the average number of people infected by an infected person, despite the first relaxations of the lockdown restrictions. The announcement, which was made in an email response to the Ritzau agency, did not specify the latest measurement. The rate had fallen to 0.6 in mid-April and then, after the first phase of the reopening, had risen back to 0.9 on April 30. The rate is used in the government’s decisions about the relaxation of pandemic restrictions. The SSI cautioned that it is subject to a margin of error and that a new measurement would be made in the coming week.
The wonders of socialism
Readers have referred me to a Friday NY Times column by Nicholas Kristof, “McDonald’s Workers in Denmark Pity Us.” Kristof gives a good overview of the advantages of Denmark’s social democracy, which is derided by some American politicians as “socialism” even while conditions in the US labor market during the pandemic deteriorate at an alarming pace.
Soon after the government announced its plan for phase 2 of the reopening of the economy, as reported yesterday, it finished the outline for phases 3 and 4. Phase 3, which begins on June 8, will cover museums, theaters, outdoor amusement parks, adult education and indoor sports; if the virus remains under control, it will also allow greater physical presence in public workplaces, including the public broadcasters. The limit on gatherings will increase from ten to 50. Phase 4, which begins in early August, covers nightclubs, gyms, swimming pools and universities. No date was set for reopening the borders, an important objective for some of the opposition parties. A decision is expected by June 1.
Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said that the ambitious schedule was made possible by the exemplary behavior of the Danish people in adhering the Health Authority’s guidelines and it was also conditional on the continuation of an acceptable trend in the number of hospitalizations and deaths. The announcement mentions the likelihood of an increase in those figures and stipulates that the timetable depends on the studies made by the Health Authority before the beginning of the next phases.
Overview in English
The English-language daily The Local has coverage of the timetable; the debate over the border opening; the Health Ministry’s report that laid the basis for the plan; the negotiations among the parties, including a useful infographic comparing the lockdown restrictions in the three Scandinavian countries; and interviews with two philosophers on the ethics of lifting the restrictions.
The negotiations on the reopening (DK) of various elements were reported to be difficult at times. There were disagreements on which organizations should resume activities on the basis of the relative risk of infection and their economic importance. Certain parties favored quick normalization, and others emphasized safety; some argued for reopening institutions in different regions on different dates. Alex Vanopslagh, leader of the Liberal Alliance Party, would have preferred a much quicker relaxation of restrictions but noted that it will proceed sooner than in the original plan presented to the other parties by the prime minister. Other parties leaders stressed the need for compromise and commended the possibility of adjusting the plans according to future reports on the status of the pandemic by the Health Ministry.
Social distancing while shopping and dining
The organizations that are about to open have begun making preparations. Department stores (DK), for example, have received a set of guidelines. They stipulate four square meters per person besides the two meters’ distance between persons. They require regular cleaning and disinfection of cashiers’ stations and other contact surfaces and prohibit clearance sales and other special offers that can result in lines and crowding. The reception of the plan by restaurant owners (DK) was mixed. Many are uncertain how much space they must allow for customers and whether they will be able to operate profitably. The industry spokesperson, Katia Østergaard, argues that hotels should receive additional economic aid because they have lost 90 percent of their revenues.
Coronavirus first appeared in France?
Finally, a report that does not yet seem to have penetrated mainstream American news: Doctors in Colmar, France, have found signs of the infection in lung scans from November 16, 2019 (DK); that is, one day before the first case was registered in China. If it’s not fake news, it would throw the question of the pandemic’s origins further in doubt. The region in question was apparently frequented by Chinese tourists, and a Chinese reality TV show was produced there. When you search for an English-language report, you find one on CGTN.com, the “Chinese Global Television Network,” and another on GlobalDomainNews.com, a site presented in very broken English based in "Fairview Kersey, PA." Kersey, an unincorporated town in Fox Township, PA, has a population of 937, a "Fairview Road" and a "PROMISS NEVER TO SPAM." Stay tuned.
On Thursday, May 9, the day before the Great Prayer Day holiday, the government and the other parties reached an agreement on the next phase of the reopening (DK), which will take pace in two stages. On Monday, May 11, shops, shopping centers, professional sports, club sports and other clubs may resume activities. On May 18, restaurants, bars, libraries, middle schools and other youth activities, churches, zoos, and critical public institutions such as the military and the Work Environment offices may open. Some organizations that may not open yet, even though some parties wanted them to, are theaters, boarding schools, fitness centers, night clubs, higher educational institutions and museums. Denmark’s borders will remain closed until at least June 1.
All the reopenings are subject to the Health Authority’s special conditions and guidelines. For example, spectators will not be able to attend professional sports events. Amateur sports must take place outdoors and are still limited to groups of ten persons. Restaurants must maintain a distance between patrons. Libraries will be open only for lending and returns. Only zoos where visitors can remain in their cars may open. All the activities must continue to adhere to the general guidelines on social distancing, good hygiene and use of protective equipment. The government will continue to pursue an aggressive policy of testing, tracing, isolation of infected persons, and systematic spot checks at regular intervals. The parties will negotiate the partial phasing out of the aid package for businesses that reopen.
Disagreement on border and zoos
All the parties agreed on the plan, although each of them gave priority to certain aspects and some weren’t satisfied with the details (DK). The right-wing parties were generally pleased that additional businesses could open, while the left-wing parties emphasized the resumption of middle schools and other youth activities. The Social Liberals and the Conservative Party wanted to open the border. One MP from the Liberal Party, the largest opposition party, said the agreement was too cautious (DK) and wanted to open open zoos and museums and to repeal the ten-person limit on gatherings. The director of the Copenhagen Zoo (DK) was very disappointed that it wouldn’t open for at least a month. Negotiations on the details were reported to be difficult, and several parties disliked the way the Mette Frederiksen announced and “took credit for” the impending agreement on Wednesday before the specifics had been ironed out.
Uncertain outlook for restaurants
Katia Østergaard, the director of Horesta, the industry association for restaurants, hotels and tourism (DK), said that the guidelines according to which its members must operate were not clear and would determine whether or not their operations could be profitable. Østergaard suggested that the authorities follow the policies in effect in Norway. In Denmark, there are physical distancing requirements of two meters generally and four square meters in shops; in Norway, the requirements are half that size. The rules will determine how soon restaurants and cafes will be ready to open, and some will not be able to under the current conditions. Since March, more than 200 restaurants have gone bankrupt, and 11,000 employees in the industry have been laid off.
Economic gains versus infection risk
The plan was based on two expert reports. A report from SSI (DK), the agency for preparedness against infectious diseases, identified most of the activities that were included in Phase 2 as the “basic set” and concluded that the virus could be kept under control and would die out if they resumed operations; that is, reproductive rate of virus could be held under 1.0. The basic set did not include middle schools and restaurants. The report warned that because the overall spread of the infection was low, there was a risk of a second wave if people do not continue to follow the general guidelines on social distancing and good hygiene.
The second report was prepared by three economists. Its main purpose was to determine what activities would have the most beneficial effect on the economy (DK) if they resumed. The conclusion was service businesses, shopping centers, restaurants and cafes. It was a difficult balancing act to select activities that would have the strong economic effect while entailing relatively low risk of infection, said Torben Andersen of Aarhus University, one of the economists on the committee. Fitness centers, for example, would have to wait to reopen because they pose a rather large risk without having great economic significance.
The debate over testing will never end. In a detailed opinion piece, Kenneth Jensen, head doctor specializing in anesthesiology and intensive therapy at Næstved Hospital, questions whether the Health Authority has the capacity to carry out its planned testing strategy (DK). A key problem for testing, he says, is that the number of asymptomatic infected people is three to ten times larger than the number who become ill and they are not being tested. Of those tested recently, only 5-7 percent have been found positive, so number of tests has relatively little value. In addition, the treatment of those who test positive is the same as for anyone else with mild symptoms – self-quarantine at home. The Health Authority’s new policy is that people who test positive must trace their recent contacts, who must all be tested.
Double the testing
Jensen calculates the number of tests required to implement the policy and points out a number of problems, for example the difficulty of identifying all relevant contacts and a seven-day wait for results. He estimates that at least 25,000 must be tested daily, whereas the maximum level thus far has been around 13,000. Jensen also says that spot checks must be made in order to find asymptomatic carriers, that healthcare staff must be tested regularly, and that results must be available within 48 hours. He concludes that because the number of infected persons is now low, more aggressive testing and tracing could reduce the spread of the virus while lockdown restrictions are further relaxed, but the window of opportunity will not be open for long.
No, 30x the testing
That advice is similar to recommendations that the Ministry of Health recently received from an unexpected quarter. On May 1, the Danish Broadcasting Corporation’s Detektor program interviewed Paul Romer, Professor of Economics at New York University and Nobel Prize winner. Romer has been advocating an even more aggressive test-trace-and-isolate policy in the United States in order to allow the economy to reopen quickly. His proposal is that 7 percent of the population should be tested per day until a vaccine is developed; that is, everyone should be tested every two weeks. That will give people the confidence to return to work without much danger of getting infected. In Denmark, this plan would require some 400,000 tests per day. Romer’s argument is that the cost of such extensive testing is much lower than the cost of idling the economy and the concomitant rescue packages, only about DKK 1,800 ($250) per person for a year.
Betting on free-market incentives
When questioned about the feasibility of the plan, Romer goes as far as to propose a bet to Minister of Health Magnus Heunicke: If Denmark offers a prize of, say, DKK 1.4 billion, to the first lab that can produce 1 million tests per day, he believes a lab will achieve this within six months. When asked whether such mass testing is really necessary, he cautions that there was an earlier, milder version of the corona virus and there may be an even more dangerous version in the future. So every country should invest heavily in testing capacity in order to be ready for the next pandemic.
Danish researchers do not think such a drastic suppression policy and extensive testing are necessary in order to continue the lockdown exit since the number of infections remains low and people have been able to adapt to social distancing and stricter hygienic habits. Heunicke didn’t respond to the wager. Instead, the Health Ministry made a referral to its press release about increasing the testing capacity as quickly as possible.
Not so bad after all
On Monday, the government released a chart showing that Denmark ranked second among selected countries in the number of tests it has conducted per million inhabitants. At 42,262, it was 3,500 behind Israel and nearly 8,000 ahead of the third-highest country, Ireland. The chart included the major European countries as well as some countries that have been most successful in stopping the virus – South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore and New Zealand.
(NB: Coronavirus DK will take tomorrow off and return on Friday.)
On Sunday the number of people hospitalized for Covid-19 rose for the first time in a week. The trend has been steadily downward since April 1. The increase prompted the question of whether Denmark is beginning to see the consequences of the relaxation (DK) of restrictions around two weeks ago. The change is insignificant, says Søren Riis Paludan, Professor of Virology and Immunology at Aarhus University: “People feared that after the reopening the curve would fly up again, but that hasn’t been the case. With the degree of opening we have now, the spread is under control. We should be ready to open further.”
Scientific evidence for safe soccer
A ray of hope for a return of the national pastime has appeared. Researchers at Aarhus University have determined that soccer matches in Superliga (DK), the highest professional league in Denmark, can safely resume. Allan Randrup Thomsen, Professor of Immunology and Microbiology at the University of Copenhagen, concurs: “Football [as the sport is called outside of North America] does not pose a real infection risk.” The Health Authority considers that there is a risk only if people are within two meters of each other for 15 minutes. Using that parameter, the researchers estimated, on the basis of an analysis of 14 Superliga matches, that if one player is infected, the other individual players will be within infection range for an average of only one minute and 28 seconds in a match.
That was welcome news for Claus Thomsen, the head of the Superliga association, which has been working on plans to play under special guidelines that will minimize the danger of infections. If the matches resume, they will take place without spectators in the stadiums. The 88-second figure applies only to matches with one infected player, however. With two of them, players would be exposed to the virus for an average of about three minutes; with three infected players, for four and a half minutes. Another study from Italy and Germany offers a cautionary message. It concludes that elite athletes are subject to an unusually high risk because of their heavy breathing during extreme exertion. Neither study has been peer-reviewed.
No-touch football
Meanwhile, the Danish Football Union, the overall governing body for soccer in Denmark, has prepared a set of “corona rules” (DK) – guidelines that will allow local clubs to play according to the pandemic restrictions. The rules are rather extensive: No more than ten people can practice together, including the coach; players must always keep two meters’ distance from one another; touching the ball only with the feet except by the goalkeeper; liberal use of sanitizer; no use of locker rooms and showers. It will not be the familiar rough-and-tumble contact sport as before.
“It’s better than nothing,” says Tom Helligsøe, the head of the IF Lyseng club. Others think the rules are too strict, for example sanitizing all the balls and other equipment. “How can a ball infect you if you’re not allowed to head it, pick it up or trap it with your body?” asks Jan Busk, the head of the Frederiksberg Alliance, which has 2,000 members. The rules need to approved by the Health Authority before the clubs can resume activities.
No to American pet quarantine
After dogs and cats in the US have been found to be infected with the corona virus, the CDC has issued social distancing rules for pets (DK): Keep cats indoors; keep dogs on a tight leash, at least two meters’ from other dogs as well as humans; limit contact with them. But they aren’t necessary in Denmark, says Randrup Thomsen, who is consulted by journalists about pandemic measures almost daily. There are still no reports that pets have infected people. Nevertheless, if you are in high-risk group, adds Thomsen, you can consider keeping your cat indoors, although that may be difficult for a cat that is used to being out. “But the most important thing is not to let them lick your face. In principle, you should never let them do that because they can infect you with all kinds of diseases.”
“April is the cruelest month,” begins T.S. Eliot’s classic modernist poem The Wasteland, which was written only two or three years after the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918-19. This year many would agree, not only because of the loss of lives to Covid-19 but also because of the loss of livelihoods and businesses.
Last week the venerable Arnold Busck bookstore chain closed (DK) all of its 29 stores and filed for bankruptcy. Most of the stores have been closed since mid-March, when the lockdown went into effect. Certain locations were allowed to open under special conditions, but it was not enough to save the business, which has not yet received the payments from the government’s rescue package. In any case, the aid would not have been large enough to save the business, which has suffered losses in the past two years because of problems implementing a new IT system. The chain has been a family business since it was founded in 1896.
Cooling their jets
Also last week, SAS announced that it would lay off up to 40 percent of its workforce in Scandinavia. That is the equivalent of 5,000 full-time positions, including 1,700 in Denmark. The government rescue packages allowed the airline to furlough 90 percent of its workers when the lockdown went into effect, and it has received EUR 275 in emergency credit guarantees from Sweden and Denmark. But now it says that it does not expect the industry to return to pre-pandemic activity levels for years and it needs to adjust its staff accordingly.
In a related story, Denmark’s second-largest airport, Billund Airport in Jutland, is almost empty these days. The airport reports that the number of its passengers in April fell a full 99 percent (DK) from the level in 2019. Managing Director Jan Hessellund, says that its fate depends on when the Ministry of Foreign Affairs eases its travel restrictions. Denmark’s borders are closed and all unnecessary travel is discouraged until May 10, when the next phase of the reopening is to begin. The only flights from Billund at present are to Amsterdam and Romania. Air traffic at Copenhagen-Kastrup Airport is down around 95 percent.
Look on the bright side
In 2020 the number of traffic accidents (DK) in the month of March was the lowest since 1985, when the Danish Road Directorate began compiling records. They fell from 248 in 2019 to 159, and the number of traffic deaths fell from 14 in 2019 to 9. The decline is doubtless an effect of the lockdown, which caused a reduction in the number of passenger cars on the road, says Marianne Foldberg Steffensen of the Road Directorate.
With the sharp decline in air travel and a 25 percent drop in road traffic, carbon dioxide emissions will fall (DK) by about one-sixth in Denmark during the current lockdown period running until May 10. That is the result of calculations made by Brian Vad Mathiesen, Professor of Energy Planning at Aalborg University, for the Danish Broadcasting Corporation. If energy consumption returns to normal afterward, the reduction for the year would amount to 5 percent of the annual level.
The dark side of the bright side
For Vad Mathiesen, however, the main conclusion to be drawn is that it will be extremely difficult for the country to reach its target of reducing emissions by 70 percent by 2030. It would need to cut emissions by a similar amount every year until then, and it cannot afford to shut down commercial activity to the same degree. Climate Minister Dan Jørgensen agrees that meeting the target will be an enormous challenge and it must be accomplished by innovations in energy production and transport rather than simply by reducing consumption.
A couple of days ago I reported that Kåre Mølbak of SSI, the agency responsible for preparedness for infectious diseases, scolded teenagers for not following social distancing guidelines. Mølbak cited test statistics showing that the number of infections in that age group had doubled over a few weeks. Since then, Mølbak has been criticized (DK) by representatives of several political parties for shaming a particular segment of the population, for not delivering the statistics in question to the MPs, and for making misleading comparisons between the test results in the two periods.
The politicians, including Stinus Lindgren, the healthcare spokesperson for the Social Liberal Party, note that the testing policy changed had changed between the two periods that Mølbak cited, with the addition of tests for people with only mild sympoms. So they want to know whether the change in the results was owing to an actual rise in the number of infections or the change in testing. They have requested the statistics but have not received them. The information is relevant for the parties’ negotiations on the next phase of the relaxation of the lockdown because high schools are still closed and the SSI has ranked them in the medium-risk category.
Too easy a target?
Peder Hvelplund of the Red-Green Party also criticizes the practice of mixing healthcare research and policy. Reproving a group of citizens is a political act, and it should be based on adequate documentation of the problem. “It is foolish to shame the young (DK),” said Jakob Mark, the parliamentary group leader for the Socialist People’s Party. “The infection statistics show that the percentage of young people who are infected is declining.”
It is sometimes unclear whether politicians or journalists are referring to the percentage of infections among those tested or among the total number of infections. Teenagers still represent a very small portion of infected persons, but if they are more likely to be asymptomatic and not develop Covid-19, that does not reduce the risk that they may infect others while they are infected. None of the politicians quoted say that the accusations were unwarranted. On the basis of reports of the gatherings the week before in the Islands Brygge waterfront area as well as my own informal observations, they are generally accurate, with the proviso that the behavior of those in their twenties may not be much different.
Tourism in the plague year
Frank Jensen, the Mayor of Copenhagen, wants to open restaurants and cafes soon (DK) for outdoor service if Denmark is to make a success of the summer tourist season. Jensen has invited the mayors of the country’s six largest cities to a meeting to plan a reopening of the tourism industry. He said that in Copenhagen alone the industry will lose DKK 4.7 billion ($670 million) in revenues in March, April and May. Jensen notes that restaurants must take measures to ensure that social distancing guidelines are followed, for example by using the space in parking lots to keep patrons apart.
Restaurants have been open in Sweden throughout the pandemic. Oslo, which has allowed restaurants to operate without serving alcohol, will lift the ban on alcohol on May 6. That will make Copenhagen the only Scandinavian capital where restaurants are closed and put it at a disadvantage in attracting tourists. On Friday, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said that she expects the next phase of the lockdown exit to proceed on May 10 but did not specify what types of businesses and organizations would be allowed to open.
The traditional May Day gatherings were canceled and the speeches by left-wing leaders were sent remotely. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen of the Social Democrats held her speech at the Workers Museum in Copehagen and used the occasion to announce the government’s first large employment project (DK). It will spend around DKK 4.5 billion ($650 million) to renovate subsidized housing units. The project will be “fair, economically sensible, and green,” said Frederiksen. It will improve living conditions for renters, provide jobs for people who have lost them during the crisis, and bring the buildings up to environmentally sound standards, for example by replacing old oil furnaces. The initiative is to be seen as signalling a shift in focus from healthcare issues to economic issues as well as a shift to more sustainable infrastructure projects. It will begin before the end of the year.
Frederiksen summed up the measures taken during the crisis to support employees and businesses. Some 150,000 people have received wage compensation and avoided being laid off, and 25,000 businesses have received aid. In the question and answer period after the speech, Frederiksen said that she was concerned about the increase in the reproduction number (R0) to 0.9 since the first phase of the reopening but that she expected the second phase to begin as planned (DK) on May 10. Negotiations with the other parties on the next steps of the exit from lockdown restrictions continue.
Antifa silenced, nursing home residents to get visits
Frederiksen also noted with a smile that the room was very quiet. That was a reference to the traditional May Day gathering last year in Copenhagen’s largest park, when she had been drowned out by protesters from the Autonomist Movement, the local version of Antifa. Before the corona virus outbreak, she had declined to appear at the gathering this year.
Parliament has also reached a broad agreement on an aid package to help nursing home residents (DK) and other elderly people return to more normal conditions. The plan, which will cost DKK 165 million ($24 million), was approved by all the parliamentary parties except for the Liberal Party, which believed it did not go far enough. It is intended to reestablish the standard service level for cleaning and cultural activities and to redress loneliness and anxiety among the elderly who have been isolated, including those with dementia, by promoting volunteer activities, for example. A key element of the plan is setting up outdoor facilities where the elderly can receive visits from their families while minimizing the risk of infection.
Infection-risk rankings from libraries to discos
A new factor in the negotiations that came to light yesterday is a confidential memorandum sent to MPs by SSI, the agency responsible for preparedness against infectious diseases. It contained an extensive list of institutions and organizations according to their risk levels (DK) for Parliament to use in determining the next steps in the reopening of the economy on May 10. In the low-risk category are outdoor eating facilities, libraries, museums and outdoor zoos. In the medium-risk category are higher educational institutions, theaters, restaurants, churches, shopping centers, workplaces where social distancing is possible, and outdoor sports facilities. High-risk locations include middle schools and high schools, bars and concert halls. In the very-high-risk category are boarding schools, fitness centers, nightclubs, and (indoor) visits to nursing homes and hospitals.
The SSI noted that the ranking was “uncertain and simplistic” and that the organizations selected for reopening should depend on the degree of spread of the virus on May 10 and on the other organizations that are allowed to open at the same time. The decision will be made by the government in consultation with the other political parties, not the SSI or the Health Ministry.
Yesterday Statens Serum Institut (SSI), the agency responsible for preparedness against infectious diseases, reported that the reproduction number of infections rose (DK) during the first week after the country reopened schools and small businesses. The measure, aka R0, indicates how many people one infected person passes the infection on to. If it is below 1.0, the virus is declining in prevalence. Before the reopening, in the period April 10-14, R0 had fallen to 0.6. After the reopening, in the period April 19-24, it rose to 0.9. The spread of the infection is thus not increasing. The rise in R0 had been expected after the relaxation of lockdown restrictions. Hospitalizations, which are a clearer measure of the spread of the virus, have been falling steadily since April 1.
Teenagers will be teenagers
Kåre Mølbak, the head of SSI, reported that, while the overall spread of the virus remained under control, it has risen sharply among a certain segment of the population. For teenagers, it has doubled (DK) during the month of April. It rose from 4 per 100,000 in weeks 12-14 to 11 per 100,00 in weeks 15-17. The rate is still much lower than that of the elderly. For those over 80, the rate was 47 per 100,000 in the latter period. The information on the spread of the virus was presented to Parliament as they consider whether to reopen high schools and other educational institutions in the next phase of the lockdown exit.
Mølbak did not make any recommendations about the reopening policy. He stated that young people do not run a great risk of becoming ill but the figures show that there may be a hidden dissemination of the virus that could pose a challenge during a further relaxation of restrictions. He added that young people sometimes have trouble taking such warnings seriously if they want to meet with their friends but they should consult their consciences and realize that they also have a responsibility to society.
IKEA again again
(The Danish phrase for “yet again” is “igen igen.”) After criticizing IKEA for reopening and then receiving criticism himself for his comments, Simon Kollerup, Minister for Business, has announced more concrete guidelines for large retailers (DK). The new rule is that stores larger than 10,000 square meters (100,000 sq. feet) must allow a space of 20 square meters (200 sq. feet) for each customer. Previously the general recommendation was that there must be only 4 square meters per customer. Other requirements are that customers must be able to walk past one another and stand in line at 2 meters’ distance, that the restaurant and children’s playroom must remain closed, and that there must be adequate supplies of sanitizer or soap and water. Kollerup reported that he had held constructive discussions with retailers and trade associations, and IKEA announced that it would be ready to comply with the new rule today.
As I reported yesterday, the parliamentary opposition has criticized the government for changing the policies during the crisis. Yesterday Magnus Heunicke, the Minister for Health, defended the government’s decisions (DK) to revise its policies. He said that it would be unwise to follow a fixed policy when new information about the spread of the virus is always appearing. Heunicke was questioned by opposition parties particularly about the Health Authority’s guidelines concerning the risk of infection from asymptomatic persons, which were not clarified until April 21, and their significance for the safety of healthcare personnel. Heunicke said that the Health Authority was following the WHO’s recommendations but that it had mentioned the risk earlier.
Terror, death of a poet, and praise from the fake newsmaker
While the Covid-19 crisis grinds along, other things are also happening in Denmark: Police and special forces arrested a radical Islamist (DK) who was allegedly planning a terror attack in Denmark. The young poet Yahya Hassan (DK), who caused a sensation a few years ago with his provocative upper-case exhortations and later ran into trouble with the law, was found dead in his home. And the president of the United States, who is best known for his lies and disinformation, compared Denmark’s pandemic strategy favorably to Sweden’s.
