Coronavirus DK: More infections, restrictions and testing

 Like many other European countries, Denmark has seen Covid-19 infections rise (DK) and has resumed restrictions on social and business activity. In the past week, new daily infections have risen above 500, which is higher than the peak of the first wave. They have subsided somewhat in the past week. As before, the number of hospitalizations and deaths remain low. In the past two weeks, daily hospitalizations have risen to double digits and there have been 13 deaths. The reproduction number has fallen slightly to 1.3.

Restaurant sign showing reduced capacity and hours. Photo: Lisbeth Janniche.

Partial lockdown
The restrictions (DK) that were implemented in Greater Copenhagen now apply to the entire country until October 4:

• Restaurants, bars and cafes must close by 10 pm.
• Gatherings are limited to 50 people. Attendance at sporting and cultural events are limited to 500 people.
• Masks must be worn by people over the age of 12 on public transportation, including taxis; by employees and visitors at hospitals, nursing homes and doctors’ offices; and by employees and customers at restaurants and cafes when they are not sitting at tables (not yet at stores and businesses, although health authorities say they will be covered too if the infection rate rises further).
• Alcohol is banned on buses (including so-called “party buses).
• Strict rules apply to visits to hospitals and nursing homes.

Additional recommendations.

• Avoid public transportation at rush hour; ride a bicycle or walk instead.
• Both public and private employees who are able to work at home are urged to do so.
• People are advised to limit their social contacts as much as possible.
• While daycare centers, schools and universities remain open, social arrangements at them are discouraged.

Low mortality rate
Some good news: the mortality rate for patients at Danish hospitals (DK) is relatively low. During the first wave, that is, in the period ending May 19, some 63 percent of ICU patients recovered. In many other countries, including the US, the UK and Italy, the rate was around 50 percent. The average age of the patients was 68. Around 30 percent had no preexisting illness. 

The breakdown by sex in total mortality rate of 37 percent was 42 percent men and 29 percent women. The breakdown by age in the total mortality rate was 5 percent for the 50-64 age group and 64 percent for patients over 80. 

More testing and longer waiting
The administration has promised that testing would be increased significantly for months, and lately the number of test centers and the number of tests administered have increased. Around six weeks ago, the number of daily tests reached 30,000 per day, and in the past week, it has exceeded 40,000 and 50,000. The goal was that 80 percent of requests for tests should be granted within 24 hours and the subjects should receive the results within 24 hours. 

Nevertheless, there are long waiting periods at many test centers (DK). On September 23, it was possible to be tested within 24 hours at only three of the 48 test centers across the country. In a few places, the delays were up to seven days, and sometimes when people appear for test they must wait in line up to six hours before they are tested. The Opposition parties are criticizing the administration for not fulfilling the agreement that was made as a condition for phase 4 of the reopening plan, and Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen reiterated the government’s commitment to the 24-hour framework.

Self-testing for antibodies
The government also has an ambitious plan to test 2 million people for antibodies (DK) during the autumn and in the beginning of the new year. That would be 35 percent of the population. Test kits will be sent to people’s homes, and they will administer the tests themselves by pricking a finger and letting a drop of blood on a testing strip. The result will appear in 15 minutes. 

Coronavirus DK: Infections up and restrictions back

Denmark has seen a steady rise in infections (DK) in the past month, although the number of hospitalizations and deaths remain low. For three months, from the beginning of May to the beginning of August, the number of daily infections was below 100. Since the beginning of September, it has been above 200, rising to 300 this past week. Hospitalizations number 47, 4 in ICUs, and deaths total 631. The reproduction number has fluctuated between 1.0 and 1.5 since mid-July, and it is back at 1.5. Testing has also increased significantly.

The number of deaths per million is now 109. In comparison, the figure is 588 in Italy, 589 in the US, and 616 in the UK. The other Nordic countries: 49 in Norway, 582 in Sweden, and 61 in Finland. 

New restrictions but no return to a general lockdown
Tighter restrictions (DK) went into effect last week. In 18 municipalities, almost all of them in Greater Copenhagen, the limit on gatherings was reduced from 100 to 50 and bars had to close by midnight instead of 2 a.m. The limit on spectators at major sports events was reduced to 500. Face masks have been required on public transportation for two weeks now. 

The number of infections per 100,000 inhabitants has risen above 20 in 39 municipalities, and the mayors of several of them are asking that similar restrictions be implemented there. Many of them have placed limits on visits to nursing homes. But virologist Allan Randrup Thomsen (DK) does not think it is necessary in every case. The absolute number of infections is what matters most, and in some municipalities with a small number of inhabitants, the infections have come from individual incidents.

For example, if an infection is discovered in a school, it may be sufficient to close the school or class temporarily without setting restrictions on the entire community. Future restrictions will probably be implemented locally. One of the next likely measures is requiring face masks in supermarkets and shopping centers. 

Copenhagen Sunday evening. Photo: Ólafur Steinar Rye Gestsson / Ritzau Scanpix.

Young people can’t stop partying
One of the main reasons for the rise in infections, besides the loosening of earlier restrictions, is that young people are holding parties and frequenting bars and parks without observing social distancing measures. Persons from 20 to 30 account for large portion of new infections. At a press conference on Saturday (DK), Police Chief Thorkild Fogde issued a warning that if young people do not become more careful, the police will need to reinvoke tighter restrictions.

It has already made two parks in the Nørrebro district of Copenhagen off-limits, and a violation of the ban is subject to a fine of DKK 2,500 (about $400). Patrols have broken up so-called “pirate parties” at several locations on the weekends. The further restrictions could be requiring masks at bars, closing bars earlier in the evening, and banning gatherings in other areas. Several universities have suspended social activities involving more than 50 attendees. 

Economy is relatively sound
Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen (DK) issued a statement on September 11, exactly six months after the government announced lockdown restrictions. She emphasized that the Danish economy has recovered much faster than it did after the financial crisis. The number of unemployed has fallen from a peak of 45,000 to 25,000. Housing prices have risen since March, particularly for vacation homes. Consumer spending has recovered. Certain industries, such as hospitality and travel, have suffered long-lasting damage, but others, such as the DIY segment, have thrived during the epidemic.

As in the rest of the world, the stock market has rebounded from the initial selloff. Exports have not recovered yet because they are dependent on the economies of other countries. The recovery has been owing to the government’s relief package, and it is difficult to predict its long-term effects. Economist Michael Svarer expects the recovery to continue. He does not expect a deep second drop, as a in W-shaped pattern, but rather something resembling Nike’s swoosh logo.